The Liberation Day selloff cycle is over. In 18 sessions the Cantillon framework tracked a complete regime rotation from FULL RISK-OFF at −8/9 to a peak Composite of +8/9 — the highest reading in the framework. The Strait of Hormuz stress test was absorbed and the regime upgraded through it. Copper was entered and exited cleanly at the 2nd dev band. Gold flipped BEARISH and confirmed the institutional rotation. BTC's SD2L Extreme delivered. The week ended with INFLATIONARY PUMP, DJIA COILED at 100%, and Gold compressing hard into a potential break. This is the weekend brief: what happened, what the signals delivered, and what the framework is loading for next week.
The week of April 14–18 was defined by a single structural fact: the market absorbed a genuine macro shock — the Strait of Hormuz naval blockade — and chose to upgrade the regime rather than retreat. On Monday, with oil above $97 and equity futures under pressure, the IVT framework flipped to FULL RISK-ON for the first time since pre-Liberation Day. All three Cantillon layers confirmed ON simultaneously. By Thursday the Composite had peaked at +8/9. Copper was exited at the 2nd VWAP deviation band in a clean institutional-grade trade closure. Gold confirmed its BEARISH rotation. BTC followed through on its SD2L Extreme. By Friday, the framework had settled into INFLATIONARY PUMP — Layer 1 (TLT) falling back BEARISH, equities extended, and two new coil setups loading: DJIA at 100% compression and Gold compressing bearish at 100%. The opportunity set is narrow but the setups are high quality. Next week, the framework is loading for specific, defined moves — not broad exposure.
The week of April 14 will be remembered as the session when the IVT framework proved its core thesis in real time. A naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most consequential geopolitical events in recent memory — arrived as a stress test for a market that was already in recovery from the Liberation Day tariff shock. The consensus view was that the blockade would break the rally. The framework read institutional positioning — BULLISH across all three layers, Composite at +5/9, SD2L Extremes already fired and delivering — and called FULL RISK-ON. The market upgraded the regime. The consensus was wrong. The framework was right. That is not a coincidence; it is what happens when you follow institutional positioning rather than headlines.
The week's clean exits and deliveries are worth cataloguing as a discipline record. BTC's SD2L Extreme — flagged April 13 as the "most important forward signal in the session" — delivered $4,000 in directional movement within 24 hours. Copper closed at the 2nd VWAP deviation band at $6.1155, exactly where the framework draws institutional resistance, and the partial at $5.9200 had already captured the core of the move. Gold's BEARISH flip at Conf 9 double-star Stability on April 14 initiated a compression cycle that entered its most dangerous phase by April 17 — 100% COILED, Dev Filter passing, INFLATIONARY PUMP regime confirming the direction. These are not lucky trades. These are systematic entries and exits managed against pre-defined institutional levels, with high win rates across meaningful sample sizes providing the statistical backing.
Entering next week, the framework is telling a specific story: the broad opportunity set has narrowed because extension is real. SPX at +5% VWAP deviation and NAS100 at +6% are not entry setups — they are position management problems for those already in. The two instruments with the cleanest setups are also the most contrarian in appearance: the DJIA — the Dow, which the narrative says is a laggard — is the only major index with 100% compression and a passing Dev Filter; and Gold — which the narrative says is an inflation hedge — is the BEARISH setup in the INFLATIONARY PUMP regime. Both setups are counterintuitive to the casual observer. Both are exactly what the framework is designed to find.
The INFLATIONARY PUMP regime closing the week carries a specific structural implication for the week ahead. TLT BEARISH at COILED 93% means bonds are loading a move. If that move is lower — if TLT breaks $85 — the macro backdrop tightens materially. Equities can remain BULLISH in an INFLATIONARY PUMP regime, but the leadership shifts to the Dow's value components rather than Nasdaq's growth exposure. Watch DJIA Stability, TLT $85, Gold $4,700, and AVAX 80%+ Vol Comp. These four triggers define the week of April 20.
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