Research — Cantillon Research

Macro Intelligence · Free

What institutions watch before they trade

The Cantillon Flow composite scores across three layers of the global liquidity stack. Below are the live raw inputs — the same signals professional desks monitor before every allocation decision.

● FULL RISK-OFF · COMPOSITE −8/9 · ALL 3 LAYERS OFF

Layer 1 · Liquidity (Bond Market) OFF · TLT ↑ IMPROVING Treasury bond health drives the discount rate for every risk asset. When TLT stabilises, the rate pressure on equities and crypto eases first. This is Cantillon's leading layer — it turns before equities do.

10Y Yield 4.62%

2Y Yield 4.41%

2s10s Spread +21bp · Normal

Fed Funds Rate 4.25–4.50%

Next Cut Pricing Jun · 60% odds

Current Price $86.77

Critical Floor $85.00 ✓ Held

Bull Trigger $88.50 AVWAP

Transition ↑ IMPROVING

Cantillon Layer 1 OFF · Watching

Layer 2 · Equities OFF · VIX 31 HIGH FEAR Equity market health determines whether institutions are expanding or contracting risk exposure. High VIX + widening credit spreads = institutions buying protection, not risk.

Current Level 31.0

Zone HIGH FEAR (>30)

Regime Signal Institutions hedging

Risk-Off Threshold 20 = elevated · 30 = fear

Layer 2 Bull Trigger VIX close below 20

SPX VWAP Dev −4.88%

NAS100 Dev −5.79%

SD2L Extremes Active 4 of 4 indices

Stability (any index) 0 / 2 — None

Layer 2 Trigger SPX Stability 1/2

Layer 3 · Risk Assets OFF · BTC COILED 93% · WTI FIRED Dollar strength and commodity flows signal where global capital is rotating. WTI has already fired. BTC and Gold are at maximum compression — the setups that precede the next leg.

Current Level 99.96

IVT Score ▲+2 BULLISH

Regime Signal Dollar crisis bid

VWAP Dev +2.8%

Psych Level 100.00 in play

BTC Vol Comp COILED 93%

Gold Vol Comp COILED 84%

BTC SD2L Extreme ACTIVE +2F

BTC Conf Score +3 (4F)

Layer 3 Trigger BTC Vol Comp Signal

Dashboard Panels

Sector Rotation Heatmap — Where Institutional Money Is Flowing

Real Yields — The Actual Mechanism

+2.13%

10Y REAL YIELD (Nominal − TIPS)

Nominal 10Y

—

TIPS 10Y

—

Trend

—

Put/Call Ratio — Institutional Hedging Signal

1.42

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO

0.6–0.8 Complacent · 0.9–1.2 Normal · >1.3 Hedging Active

Cross-Asset Correlation — Regime Detector

STRESS

Global Liquidity Proxy — The Cantillon Thesis Made Visual

CONTRACTING

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What institutions watch before they trade

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What institutions watch before they trade

Get the full analysisbefore the market opens.

Get the full analysis
before the market opens.