Cantillon Flow Sequence
Layer 1 — Liquidity
TLT BEARISH composite −5/9 · Gold BULLISH Building 79% · Bonds broken, gold holding $5,000
BEARISH
Layer 2 — Equities
SPX ▼−2 recovering · NDQ ▼−1 · US30 COILED 90% · Russell COILED 88% · FED trigger at 2pm ET
BEARISH
Layer 3 — Risk Assets
BTC ★+3 · $74,186 · 98% coil released bullishly · Full crypto complex ★+3 · WTI COILED 86%
BULLISH
Macro Composite Score
−4 / 9
FED DAY — FOMC announces at 2pm ET. Regime SPECULATIVE, Composite −4/9, Transition ↑ Improving. BTC at $74,186 ★+3 — the 98% vol compression from March 13 released bullishly. Entire crypto complex ★+3. US30 COILED 90%, Russell COILED 88%, WTI COILED 86% — all loaded for the Fed trigger. TLT composite −5/9 is the weakest instrument in the framework. SPX recovering from 2026 lows; VWAP Dev narrowed to −1.28%. Dot plot and Powell language are the event.
Regime Radar — Mar 26 vs Mar 25