Cantillon Research — IVT Terminal

Stop reading
price.
Start reading
institutions.

Institutional Order Flow — Not Signals

Institutions move markets in a sequence — liquidity first, then equities, then risk. By the time price confirms your setup, the institutional position is already built. The IVT Terminal maps that sequence in real time, so you know whether you're entering with the flow or walking into their exit.

74 Calls Published & Closed
56.8% Closed Profitably
+5.4% Average Per Call
Every call published before entry. 12 still open and not counted above. Full record →
Start Free Trial The Methodology
Built by Jesper Johnsson. Trading since 2000, applying Austrian economics and institutional volume structure to live markets every session. Full background →
Cantillon Regime Dashboard ● EARLY CYCLE
IVT Regime Dashboard — Cantillon Flow
Live across
TradingView Daily Analysis
Substack Daily Briefs
YouTube Growing Channel
IVT Indicator v14 — Active
Instruments Tracked 100+ Assets
Published Call Record

Every call.
Published before entry.

Each call below was posted on Substack before the position was taken. Entries, signals and outcomes, winners and losers. No cherry-picking, no hindsight.

Calls Closed
74
12 still open
Closed Profitably
56.8%
42 of 74
Average Per Call
+5.4%
median +1.0%
Avg Win / Avg Loss
+10.5% / −1.8%
median hold 8 days

How to read this. These are individual call returns, not a portfolio return. Each figure is the result of one position measured on its own, so they are not added together. Position sizing is your own decision and no capital base is assumed. Twelve calls remain open and are excluded from every figure above. Open calls are not marked to market here and are closed when price breaks the AVWAP anchor on either side. Returns are concentrated: the five best calls account for roughly half of the total gain. Past results do not indicate future performance.

View Full Portfolio & Charts →
The Framework

Regime first.
Volume second.
Price last.

01 // CANTILLON FLOW

Read the Sequence Before It Reaches Your Asset

Institutional liquidity follows a predictable sequence: from central bank reserves, through bonds, into equities, risk assets, and finally crypto. Knowing where in that sequence the flow currently sits tells you what's next — before price reflects it.

Macro Layer
02 // AVWAP REGIME

The Single Filter That Changes Everything

Price above AVWAP = buy dips. Price below AVWAP = sell rallies. This one rule, applied with discipline, eliminates the majority of counter-trend losses that destroy retail accounts. The regime is the filter. Everything else is noise.

Primary Signal
03 // VOLUME STRUCTURE

Follow the Fingerprints, Not the Shadows

Volume Profile, CVD, compression readings, and confluence scoring reveal what institutions are doing — not what retail thinks they're doing. Distribution looks like rallies. Accumulation looks like weakness. Volume tells the truth that price conceals.

Execution Layer
The IVT Terminal in Action

This is what institutional
analysis looks like.

Every session: regime classification, AVWAP deviation across 40+ instruments, volume compression, and Cantillon flow state — all in one view.

Institutional Volume Terminal — BTC/USD · 4H ● EARLY CYCLE
IVT Indicator on TradingView — BTC 4H
V14 Score Dashboard — Full Watchlist 27 instruments · Breadth view
V14 Score Dashboard — Full Watchlist
IVT Scanner — Top Setups · Live —

Updated every session. Available to Monthly and Yearly subscribers.

Access the IVT Terminal →
// The Book 71 pages
Volume Profiling
A Structural Approach
to Market Analysis
→ Volume Profile + CVD + AVWAP + SD Zones
→ 13 chapters · 7 diagrams · 5 case studies
→ Cheat sheets, templates and a glossary
cantillonresearch.com
Included With Every Subscription

The whole framework,
free when you subscribe.

Volume Profile, CVD, Anchored VWAP and the deviation zones. How each one works, how they interact, and how institutions use them to position before price moves. Written for traders who already read a chart and want to read the flow underneath it.

Every paid subscriber gets it. Monthly is $39 and the book is $39, so subscribing costs the same as buying it once and includes the daily brief, the IVT indicator and the full archive.

Subscribe & get the book Buy the book — $39
Not ready? Read the first five chapters free.
Introduction, chapters 1 to 4 and the five case studies. 24 pages.
Already a subscriber? Download it here →
Products

One methodology.
Three ways to access it.

IVT Indicator on TradingView + daily Cantillon brief applied to 100+ instruments every session. Monthly for ongoing access. Yearly adds Elite Research Reports. Lifetime for those who want it once.

// 01 — MONTHLY

Monthly

Full daily intelligence — IVT indicator access and the Cantillon brief applied to live markets every session. Cancel anytime.

  • IVT Indicator access (TradingView)
  • Daily Cantillon Report brief
  • Regime classification across 100+ instruments
  • AVWAP levels & confluence scores
  • Volume compression readings
  • Cantillon flow state dashboard
  • Full brief archive
$39 /month ↳ 7-day free trial · cancel anytime
Start Free Trial Pay via Stripe instead →
Best Value
// 02 — YEARLY + ELITE

Yearly

Everything in Monthly — plus IVT Elite Research Reports: deep institutional convergence analysis on high-conviction setups, delivered as full PDF reports.

  • Everything in Monthly
  • IVT Elite Research Reports (PDF)
  • Volume–Fundamental convergence analysis
  • Institutional cost basis mapping
  • Position management framework
  • Scenario-weighted probability models
  • Regime reversal trigger identification
$390 /year ↳ $32.50/mo effective · save $78 vs monthly
Get Yearly + Elite → Pay via Stripe instead →
// 03 — LIFETIME

Lifetime

Everything in Yearly — paid once, accessed forever. No recurring charges, no Substack required. Processed directly via Stripe.

  • Everything in Yearly + Elite
  • IVT Indicator access (TradingView)
  • Daily brief + full archive
  • All Elite Research Reports
  • All future reports included
  • Pay once — never again
  • Direct Stripe billing, no subscription
$1,500 one-time ↳ no trial — single payment, permanent access vs. $5K–$10K/yr for institutional data services
Get Lifetime Access →
Elite Research

What institutional
analysis actually looks like.

IVT Elite Research Report #2 Feb 13, 2026
NASDAQ: COIN

Coinbase Global — Infrastructure for the Next Financial System

BEARISH · Conf 5/10 ACCUMULATION Flow Partial Convergence

Coinbase presents one of the most compelling structural divergences in markets today — but not in the direction most investors expect. The company is building the definitive infrastructure layer for the next financial system. The long-term thesis is real. The problem is timing.

The VWAP deviation of -2.91% appears modest compared to Bitcoin's -11.81% or Solana's -45%, but this metric must be contextualized. COIN's AVWAP has been resetting lower as the bearish swing matures meaning the institutional reference point itself has been moving down. A -2.91% reading against a falling AVWAP is not the same as -2.91% against a stable one. Below $157.20, the bearish thesis accelerates. The gap between $157 and $139 represents a thin-volume zone similar to air pockets identified in Bitcoin's structure.

Read Full Report Free →
// WHAT ELITE REPORTS CONTAIN

IVT Terminal Dashboard Analysis

Every parameter from the live terminal — VWAP deviation, confluence score, volume compression, stability readings, Cantillon flow state — contextualized for the specific instrument.

// FUNDAMENTAL LAYER

Volume–Fundamental Convergence

Where volume structure and business fundamentals align or diverge. When both point the same direction, conviction is high. When they diverge, the analysis tells you why and what to watch for regime confirmation.

// POSITION FRAMEWORK

Institutional Reference Levels

IVT targets, structural support, risk levels, and the specific triggers that would change the assessment. Not predictions — probability-weighted scenarios with defined conditions for each outcome.

// CANTILLON CONTEXT

Where This Asset Sits in the Flow Sequence

Every report maps the current Cantillon state and how far the liquidity flow has — or hasn't — reached the asset being analyzed. This is the macro filter most analysts completely miss.

Free Intelligence

Read institutional volume.
Free. Every session.

This is what subscribers receive every morning — regime state, instrument readings, and the one setup the IVT Terminal is flagging. No predictions. Just structure.

Chart Specifics — IVT Instrument Readings Sample from March 27 daily brief
IVT Daily Brief — Instrument Readings
Subscribe to receive this every session →

Free signup includes The IVT Regime Playbook — the 9 regime states and how to trade each one. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Daily Cantillon Flow State Regime Summary Across Asset Classes IVT Confluence Highlights One High-Conviction Setup
Jesper Johnsson, founder of Cantillon Research
Jesper
Founder · Cantillon Research
The Analyst

Trading since 2000.
Blown up once.

I started in 2000 and shorted my way through the dot com bust. It worked, so I decided I was very good at this. Then the market bottomed in 2003 and I did not. I stayed short, month after month, and lost the account.

What rebuilt it was a mentor in Copenhagen who handed me charts with the price stripped out. No open, no close, no patterns. Just where volume had traded and how much sat at each level. Price tells you where the market is. Volume tells you where it agreed. Those are not the same thing.

That principle is now the Institutional Volume Terminal, v14: anchored VWAP with deviation bands, delta weighted volume profile, cumulative volume delta, a compression layer, and a macro regime overlay built on the Cantillon Effect. It tracks 100+ instruments every session. The method is simple to state and hard to hold: regime first, volume second, price last.

Trade the regime. Never against it.
Volume precedes price. Always.
Sometimes the best trade is no trade.
Size is the only protection a stop cannot give you.

The full story, and what you can check →

Questions

What traders
ask before subscribing.

What exactly is the IVT indicator?

The Institutional Volume Terminal is a proprietary TradingView indicator (v14) combining AVWAP regime classification, Delta-Weighted Volume Profile, Cumulative Volume Delta, Cantillon Flow scoring, and a multi-factor confluence engine. It runs on any instrument and timeframe available on TradingView.

Do I need to know volume analysis to start?

The daily brief and indicator are designed for traders who already understand basic market structure. If you're newer to institutional analysis, start with the free newsletter — each brief walks through the methodology applied to live markets, which is the fastest way to learn it in context.

What assets does the analysis cover?

The IVT tracks 100+ instruments across equity indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, DAX), commodities (Gold, Oil, Silver), crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL), FX (EUR/USD, DXY), and individual equities including the MAG7 and high-conviction individual names.

What's the difference between Monthly and Yearly?

Monthly gives you the daily application — the indicator, daily brief, and live regime readings. Yearly adds the deep-dive Elite Research Reports: fundamental analysis, volume–fundamental convergence assessments, institutional cost basis mapping, and full position management frameworks for specific high-conviction instruments.

Is this financial advice?

No. All content is educational and analytical in nature. The IVT Terminal identifies structure and regime — it does not make trading decisions. You apply the framework to your own situation, risk tolerance, and capital. Always trade responsibly.

Can I cancel anytime?

Yes. Monthly subscribers can cancel anytime — no lock-in, no questions. Yearly access runs for 12 months from purchase. Lifetime is a single payment with no recurring charges and no Substack account required after setup.