New Subscriber Onboarding

Start here.

You're in. This page takes ten minutes and will save you weeks of decoding. Bookmark it — everything you have access to, and how to actually use it, lives here.

Step 01 — The Daily Rhythm

One brief, every trading day, before the US open

The brief lands in your inbox pre-market and is published at cantillonresearch.com/research. It's built to be read in three minutes, in this order:

Everything repeats daily in the same structure. By week two the read takes ninety seconds.

Step 02 — The Shorthand

Decode the terminology once, then it's yours

The brief is dense on purpose — every line carries a number you can act on. These are the terms that do the heavy lifting:

TermWhat it means
RegimeWhere liquidity sits in the Cantillon sequence — bonds → equities → risk → crypto. FULL RISK-ON and ACCUMULATION favor longs; DISTRIBUTION and FULL RISK-OFF mean defense. The regime gates every setup.
CompositeSum of active market layers, max 9. +8/9 is a very strong tape; low single digits means selective, smaller size.
Dev / Dev FilterHow far price sits from its AVWAP — the institutional cost basis. PASS = close enough to enter with defined risk. FAIL = extended; chasing means donating.
Conf ScoreInstitutional confidence measured across multiple timeframes. Higher = more independent evidence pointing the same way.
Tier S1–S4Signal quality. S1 is a base signal; each tier up adds independent confirming factors. S3/S4 with a Dev Filter PASS is the highest-conviction combination the system produces.
COILEDMaximum volatility compression — AVWAPs converged, range compressed. Energy stored. The breakout direction gets confirmed by volume, not guessed.
WRHistorical win rate for that signal class on that instrument. Published wins and losses — no cherry-picking, no hindsight edits.
SD2LPrice two standard deviations below AVWAP — a statistical oversold extreme. On the S&P 500 daily this snapback signal has run a 72% win rate.

Full definitions live in the Legend at the bottom of every brief, and the interactive glossary goes deeper on each concept.

Step 03 — Your Tools

What your subscription unlocks

Step 04 — Week One

Don't trade the first brief

Read the first five briefs without placing a trade. Watch how the Board's setups resolve against their triggers and invalidations. You're calibrating trust in the process — both directions. The edge is in the repetition, not in any single call.

When you do start: take only S3/S4 setups with a Dev Filter PASS, at half your normal size, until the shorthand reads like plain English. The regime tells you when to press and when to sit on your hands — most losing streaks are regime-fighting in disguise.

Questions? Reply to any brief email. It lands in my inbox, and I read all of it.