You're in. This page takes ten minutes and will save you weeks of decoding. Bookmark it — everything you have access to, and how to actually use it, lives here.
The brief lands in your inbox pre-market and is published at cantillonresearch.com/research. It's built to be read in three minutes, in this order:
Everything repeats daily in the same structure. By week two the read takes ninety seconds.
The brief is dense on purpose — every line carries a number you can act on. These are the terms that do the heavy lifting:
| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| Regime | Where liquidity sits in the Cantillon sequence — bonds → equities → risk → crypto. FULL RISK-ON and ACCUMULATION favor longs; DISTRIBUTION and FULL RISK-OFF mean defense. The regime gates every setup. |
| Composite | Sum of active market layers, max 9. +8/9 is a very strong tape; low single digits means selective, smaller size. |
| Dev / Dev Filter | How far price sits from its AVWAP — the institutional cost basis. PASS = close enough to enter with defined risk. FAIL = extended; chasing means donating. |
| Conf Score | Institutional confidence measured across multiple timeframes. Higher = more independent evidence pointing the same way. |
| Tier S1–S4 | Signal quality. S1 is a base signal; each tier up adds independent confirming factors. S3/S4 with a Dev Filter PASS is the highest-conviction combination the system produces. |
| COILED | Maximum volatility compression — AVWAPs converged, range compressed. Energy stored. The breakout direction gets confirmed by volume, not guessed. |
| WR | Historical win rate for that signal class on that instrument. Published wins and losses — no cherry-picking, no hindsight edits. |
| SD2L | Price two standard deviations below AVWAP — a statistical oversold extreme. On the S&P 500 daily this snapback signal has run a 72% win rate. |
Full definitions live in the Legend at the bottom of every brief, and the interactive glossary goes deeper on each concept.
Read the first five briefs without placing a trade. Watch how the Board's setups resolve against their triggers and invalidations. You're calibrating trust in the process — both directions. The edge is in the repetition, not in any single call.
When you do start: take only S3/S4 setups with a Dev Filter PASS, at half your normal size, until the shorthand reads like plain English. The regime tells you when to press and when to sit on your hands — most losing streaks are regime-fighting in disguise.