Cantillon Research · The Cantillon File
Stock research that follows the money
Each File takes one US stock and follows its money from the first dollar of sales to what is left for shareholders, asks what growth today's price is assuming, and checks whether institutional money is flowing in on the IVT terminal. Every number comes from SEC filings and market data. There are no buy or sell ratings.
01Where it comes from02Where it goes03Who ends up with it04What protects it05What the price assumes06Is money flowing in07What would break it08The read
High quality
Score 7.5 and up · 3 FilesISRG
Intuitive Surgical · Surgical robots
The surgical robot most hospitals already own, earning most of its money on the instruments used in every operation. The open question is whether procedure growth near 14% can carry revenue per operation lower as extended-use instruments and rival robots arrive.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality9.0/10High
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
SHOP
Shopify · Commerce software
The quality is not in doubt. The open question is how much of it the price already assumes.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality8.0/10High
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
NFLX
Netflix · Streaming entertainment
The largest paid streaming service, now adding ads and live events to price rises. The open question is whether growth holds near 12% once the easy gains from pricing and password sharing are behind it.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality7.5/10High
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
Good quality
Score 6 to 7 · 2 FilesSPCX
SpaceX · Launch, satellite internet and AI
A profitable satellite internet business funding the largest AI compute build in the market. The open question is whether $40 billion a year of AI capex earns a return before the IPO cash runs down.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality7.0/10Good
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
MU
Micron · Memory chips
This is a cyclical business at a record peak. The open question is how much of this year's pricing the share price treats as permanent.
Updated 2026-10-21 · cyclical, scored across the cycle
Quality6.5/10Good
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
Middling quality
Score 4 to 5.5 · 6 FilesJNJ
Johnson & Johnson · Medicines and medical devices
A medicines and devices group replacing its biggest lost patent with newer drugs. The open question is whether the replacement keeps pace once US price setting and the orthopaedics split land.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality5.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
LNN
Lindsay · Irrigation and road safety
A steady irrigation business coming off a one-off Middle East contract. The open question is what earnings look like once that project ends and North American farmers are still not buying.
Updated 2026-10-21 · cyclical, scored across the cycle
Quality5.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
IRDM
Iridium · Satellite communications
A paid-for satellite network that Rocket Lab has agreed to buy for $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab shares. The open question is no longer what Iridium earns, but whether the deal closes and where Rocket Lab trades when it does.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
TSLA
Tesla · Electric cars and energy storage
A car maker whose car sales are shrinking, priced as an AI and robotics company. The open question is how much of the price rests on products that are not yet a line in the accounts.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality5.0/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
EFX
Equifax · Credit and income data
The owner of the payroll database America uses to check income, inside a credit bureau tied to the mortgage cycle. The open question is whether government and hiring checks keep growing while mortgages shrink again.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality4.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
PEP
PepsiCo · Snacks and drinks
The world's largest snack maker plus a big drinks business, with growth now coming from abroad. The open question is whether cost cuts and new products can restart its North American snack sales.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality4.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
Low quality
Score below 4 · 1 FileGPC
Genuine Parts · Auto and industrial parts distribution
A parts distributor founded in 1928, about to split into NAPA auto parts and Motion industrial parts. The open question is whether the auto side can stop losing margin to faster rivals once it stands on its own.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality3.0/10Low
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
TSLA
Tesla · Electric cars and energy storage
A car maker whose car sales are shrinking, priced as an AI and robotics company. The open question is how much of the price rests on products that are not yet a line in the accounts.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality5.0/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
SPCX
SpaceX · Launch, satellite internet and AI
A profitable satellite internet business funding the largest AI compute build in the market. The open question is whether $40 billion a year of AI capex earns a return before the IPO cash runs down.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality7.0/10Good
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
SHOP
Shopify · Commerce software
The quality is not in doubt. The open question is how much of it the price already assumes.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality8.0/10High
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
PEP
PepsiCo · Snacks and drinks
The world's largest snack maker plus a big drinks business, with growth now coming from abroad. The open question is whether cost cuts and new products can restart its North American snack sales.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality4.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
NFLX
Netflix · Streaming entertainment
The largest paid streaming service, now adding ads and live events to price rises. The open question is whether growth holds near 12% once the easy gains from pricing and password sharing are behind it.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality7.5/10High
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
MU
Micron · Memory chips
This is a cyclical business at a record peak. The open question is how much of this year's pricing the share price treats as permanent.
Updated 2026-10-21 · cyclical, scored across the cycle
Quality6.5/10Good
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
LNN
Lindsay · Irrigation and road safety
A steady irrigation business coming off a one-off Middle East contract. The open question is what earnings look like once that project ends and North American farmers are still not buying.
Updated 2026-10-21 · cyclical, scored across the cycle
Quality5.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson · Medicines and medical devices
A medicines and devices group replacing its biggest lost patent with newer drugs. The open question is whether the replacement keeps pace once US price setting and the orthopaedics split land.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality5.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
ISRG
Intuitive Surgical · Surgical robots
The surgical robot most hospitals already own, earning most of its money on the instruments used in every operation. The open question is whether procedure growth near 14% can carry revenue per operation lower as extended-use instruments and rival robots arrive.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality9.0/10High
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
IRDM
Iridium · Satellite communications
A paid-for satellite network that Rocket Lab has agreed to buy for $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab shares. The open question is no longer what Iridium earns, but whether the deal closes and where Rocket Lab trades when it does.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
GPC
Genuine Parts · Auto and industrial parts distribution
A parts distributor founded in 1928, about to split into NAPA auto parts and Motion industrial parts. The open question is whether the auto side can stop losing margin to faster rivals once it stands on its own.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality3.0/10Low
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
EFX
Equifax · Credit and income data
The owner of the payroll database America uses to check income, inside a credit bureau tied to the mortgage cycle. The open question is whether government and hiring checks keep growing while mortgages shrink again.
Updated 2026-10-21
Quality4.5/10Middling
Price assumesMembers
Money flowMembers
Educational research, not investment advice. The IVT terminal read on each File is for members; everything else is free.