Tesla TSLA
A car maker whose car sales are shrinking, priced as an AI and robotics company. The open question is how much of the price rests on products that are not yet a line in the accounts. Seven questions that follow the money through the business, the price and the tape. Every number comes from SEC filings and market data, and every score from a rule printed next to it.
What this File stands on. Annual figures: FY2025 10-K (year to 2025-12-31, filed 2026-01-29). "Last 12 months" figures add the quarters through 2026-06-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-07-23). Prices to 2026-10-21. The numbers rebuild every Monday, so each new 10-Q or 10-K appears within a week of filing. The written parts (business, defences, risks, the read) are from the FY2025 10-K, and the terminal read is dated 2026-10-15.
69 cents of every revenue dollar come from car sales, down 9% on the year.
What it does
Designs, builds and sells electric cars and the batteries that store power for homes, businesses and utilities. It now describes itself first as an AI company, with self-driving software, Robotaxi and the Optimus robot.
How it charges
Selling cars is about 69% of revenue. Service, used cars, charging and insurance add 13%, and energy storage another 13%. Energy is the smaller line but earns the higher margin: 30% against 16% for the car business.
Who buys, and why
Mostly individual drivers, who buy direct online and in Tesla's own stores rather than through dealers. Utilities and businesses buy the large Megapack batteries. Half of revenue is in the United States.
Of every $100 of sales, $2 is left for owners once staff stock pay is counted as a cost.
Owner earnings = operating cash flow minus capital spending minus stock-based pay. Stock pay is a real cost: it is paid in shares instead of cash.
What it is building Unproven
It reinvests heavily, but the numbers do not yet show that past investment has paid off.
R&D is treated as an investment written off over 5 years. Capital spending up to depreciation keeps the business standing; anything above it is growth spending. A company that puts more than 10% of sales into R&D and growth capex is building; it is paying off when after-tax profit has grown by at least 12 cents for every extra dollar of capital it put in.
Dilution is held to 0.5% a year, so the company's growth mostly reaches each share.
Founder and CEO Elon Musk, in the seat since 2008.
The strongest defence is scale economies. Gross margin has been moving, within 8 points over 6 periods.
A buyer can choose another brand at the next purchase, though the charging network and paid self-driving software give some reason to stay.
Driving data from the fleet trains the self-driving software, but the filing shows no revenue line yet where that pays off.
One of the largest EV makers with its own batteries and factories, yet car gross margin fell from 19.4% to 17.8% over three years as rivals scaled up.
The brand sells cars without dealers or much advertising, but car sales still fell 9% in 2025.
Sources are rated from the annual report (notes file). The two evidence checks are computed: margins that hold and high returns on capital are what a real defence looks like in the numbers.
A reverse discounted cash flow: the growth today's price requires, set against what the business has actually delivered, and how that changes if you demand a different return.
The IVT terminal read on the weekly and daily charts: bias, money flow, strength, whether the entry window is open, and the sharp captures.
The worst fall of the last five years, the balance sheet, the pressure points and the specific conditions that would break the case.
Where the business sits on quality against price, the quality score line by line, and the conclusion.
The rest of the TSLA File
Chapters 5 to 8: the growth today\'s price assumes, the full IVT terminal read with sharp captures, what would break the case, and the final read.
Where every number comes from 13 figures, each linked to its SEC filing
| Figure | Value | Period | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.8B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax |
| Gross profit | $17.1B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29GrossProfit |
| Cost of sales | $77.7B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29CostOfRevenue |
| Operating income | $4.4B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29OperatingIncomeLoss |
| Net income | $3.8B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29NetIncomeLoss |
| Operating cash flow | $14.7B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities |
| Capital spending | $8.5B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment |
| Stock-based pay | $2.8B | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29ShareBasedCompensation |
| Diluted shares | 3,528M | FY25 | 10-K, filed 2026-01-29WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding |
| Cash and investments | $15.2B | 2026-06-30 | 10-Q, filed 2026-07-23CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue |
| Debt due within a year | $1.3B | 2026-06-30 | 10-Q, filed 2026-07-23DebtCurrent |
| Long-term debt | $7.7B | 2026-06-30 | 10-Q, filed 2026-07-23LongTermDebt |
| Shareholders' equity | $86.9B | 2026-06-30 | 10-Q, filed 2026-07-23StockholdersEquity |
Educational research, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Scores are mechanical and reproducible from public filings; the notes are the author's judgment. Author position in TSLA: none. Sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (filings to 2026-06-30), daily prices to 2026-10-21. Past performance does not predict future returns.