The Cantillon File · Irrigation and road safety · Data to 2026-10-21

Lindsay LNN

A steady irrigation business coming off a one-off Middle East contract. The open question is what earnings look like once that project ends and North American farmers are still not buying. Seven questions that follow the money through the business, the price and the tape. Every number comes from SEC filings and market data, and every score from a rule printed next to it.

Business quality
5.5/10
Middling, across the cycle
Growth the price assumes
Members
Chapter 05
Money flow
Members
Chapter 06, IVT terminal

What this File stands on. Annual figures: FY2025 10-K (year to 2025-08-31, filed 2025-10-23). "Last 12 months" figures add the quarters through 2026-05-31 (10-Q, filed 2026-07-02). Prices to 2026-10-21. The numbers rebuild every Monday, so each new 10-Q or 10-K appears within a week of filing. The written parts (business, defences, risks, the read) are from the FY2025 10-K and the Q3 FY2026 release, and the terminal read is dated 2026-10-14.

01 Where the money comes from

43 cents of every revenue dollar come from Irrigation International, up 39% on the year.

What it does

Builds the big wheeled sprinklers that water farm fields, the software that runs them remotely, and road safety gear such as crash cushions and the Road Zipper movable barrier.

How it charges

Sells Zimmatic center pivots, parts and FieldNET subscriptions through dealers, and sells highway safety products to road agencies. Irrigation is about 84% of revenue, infrastructure about 16%.

Who buys, and why

Farmers, through over 200 independent US dealers and a network abroad, plus road agencies and contractors. One Middle East irrigation project was 13% of revenue in FY2025.

Revenue by line, FY2025$628M last 12 months
Irrigation North America40%-9% y/y
Irrigation International43%+39% y/y
Infrastructure16%+16% y/y
Revenue by year-4.3% a year, 3 yrs
$568MFY21$771MFY22$674MFY23$607MFY24$676MFY25$628MTTM
02 Where the money goes

Of every $100 of sales, $6 is left for owners once staff stock pay is counted as a cost.

Follow $100 of sales, TTM
$100Sales-71Cost ofsales$29Gross profit-14Runningcosts, tax,working$15Operatingcash flow-8Capitalspending$7Free cashflow-1Stock pay tostaff$6Ownerearnings
Owner earnings per $100 of sales
$2FY21
-$2FY22
$14FY23
$10FY24
$12FY25
$6TTM

Owner earnings = operating cash flow minus capital spending minus stock-based pay. Stock pay is a real cost: it is paid in shares instead of cash.

What it is building Harvesting

It spends little on growth. The business is being run for cash, not built.

R&D, TTM3%of sales
Growth capex, TTM4%of sales, above depreciation
Owner earnings before growth spending$10per $100, against $6 after it
Return on the extra capital31%FY21 to FY25

R&D is treated as an investment written off over 5 years. Capital spending up to depreciation keeps the business standing; anything above it is growth spending. A company that puts more than 10% of sales into R&D and growth capex is building; it is paying off when after-tax profit has grown by at least 12 cents for every extra dollar of capital it put in.

03 Who ends up with it amber

The share count is shrinking 0.3% a year, so each share owns a little more of the business every year.

Share count, per year-0.3%
Stock pay, % of sales1.1%
Returned, TTM$105M
Insiders own1.2%
Owner earnings per share-6.0% a year, 2 yrs
$1.03FY21-$1.63FY22$8.53FY23$5.48FY24$7.54FY25$3.66TTM
Share count stable or falling-0.3% a year over 3 years
Stock pay below 10% of sales1.1% of sales (TTM)
Owner earnings per share growing-6.0% a year over 2 years

CEO Randy Wood, in the seat since 2021.

04 What protects it

The strongest defence is scale economies. Gross margin has been moving, within 6 points over 6 periods.

Switching costsWeak, stable

A pivot lasts decades and FieldNET adds some lock-in, but a farmer can buy the next system from a rival dealer.

Network effectsNone, stable

A sprinkler is no more useful because a neighbour owns the same brand.

Scale economiesModerate, stable

Four makers control most of the US pivot market, and the dealer network is costly to copy.

Brand and intangiblesModerate, stable

Zimmatic is a known farm brand and the Road Zipper has few direct substitutes, but both sit in small niches.

Does it show in the numbers?Direction: Stable
Gross margin held within 5 points5.8 point range
Return on invested capital above 12%, 5-year median17.4% (latest 11%)
Profits turn into cash: free cash flow at least 80% of net income82% over 5 years

Sources are rated from the annual report (notes file). The two evidence checks are computed: margins that hold and high returns on capital are what a real defence looks like in the numbers.

05 What the price assumes Members

A reverse discounted cash flow: the growth today's price requires, set against what the business has actually delivered, and how that changes if you demand a different return.

06 Is money flowing in Members

The IVT terminal read on the weekly and daily charts: bias, money flow, strength, whether the entry window is open, and the sharp captures.

IVT terminal weekly chart for LNN, blurred for the public version
07 What would break the case Members

The worst fall of the last five years, the balance sheet, the pressure points and the specific conditions that would break the case.

08 The read Members

Where the business sits on quality against price, the quality score line by line, and the conclusion.

Members

The rest of the LNN File

Chapters 5 to 8: the growth today\'s price assumes, the full IVT terminal read with sharp captures, what would break the case, and the final read.

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Where every number comes from 16 figures, each linked to its SEC filing
FigureValuePeriodFiling
Revenue$676MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23Revenues
Gross profit$211MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23GrossProfit
Cost of sales$466MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23CostOfRevenue
Operating income$88MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23OperatingIncomeLoss
Net income$74MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23NetIncomeLoss
Operating cash flow$133MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities
Capital spending$42MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment
Stock-based pay$8MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23ShareBasedCompensation
Buybacks$12MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock
Dividends$16MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23PaymentsOfDividends
Diluted shares11MFY2510-K, filed 2025-10-23WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
Cash and investments$155M2026-05-3110-Q, filed 2026-07-02CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue
Debt due within a year$89,0002026-05-3110-Q, filed 2026-07-02LongTermDebtCurrent
Long-term debt$115M2026-05-3110-Q, filed 2026-07-02LongTermDebtNoncurrent
Short-term borrowings$2M2013-02-2810-Q, filed 2013-04-03ShortTermBorrowings
Shareholders' equity$499M2026-05-3110-Q, filed 2026-07-02StockholdersEquity

Revenue fell more than 10% in at least one of the last 5 years (FY23: -13%), so margins and returns are scored on their medians across those years, not on the latest year.

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Educational research, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Scores are mechanical and reproducible from public filings; the notes are the author's judgment. Author position in LNN: none. Sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (filings to 2026-05-31), daily prices to 2026-10-21. Past performance does not predict future returns.