BTC/USDCONF 2/10BEARISH
NAS100CONF -3/10BEARISH
S&P 500CONF -1/10BEARISH
SILVERVWAP +5.54%BULLISH
WTI CRUDEVWAP +16.24%BULLISH
CANTILLON FLOWFULL RISK-OFFLQD ❌ EQ ❌ RSK ❌
BTC/USDCONF 2/10BEARISH
NAS100CONF -3/10BEARISH
S&P 500CONF -1/10BEARISH
SILVERVWAP +5.54%BULLISH
WTI CRUDEVWAP +16.24%BULLISH
CANTILLON FLOWFULL RISK-OFFLQD ❌ EQ ❌ RSK ❌
Cantillon Research — IVT Framework

Regime First.
Volume Second.
Price Last.

The IVT glossary — 15 terms, no signup required

Most traders analyse price and look for confirmation. Institutional volume analysis works in reverse — regime first, then structure, then price. This is the vocabulary the framework runs on, defined before you ever look at a chart.

15 terms · searchable · free
"The flow reaches bonds first, then equities, then risk assets, then crypto equity proxies. Knowing where you are in that sequence is everything."
The IVT Vocabulary

IVT Glossary

Every term in the IVT dashboard — defined, contextualised, and explained. The vocabulary that separates structural analysis from retail price-watching.

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AVWAP (Anchored VWAP) Cantillon Flow ▼
A volume-weighted average price measured from a single chosen bar rather than from the start of the session. IVT finds the highest high and lowest low over the lookback window and anchors to the earlier of the two, because that is where the current structure began. The swing is then held stable by a debounce system: it must be mature, the anchor must move by more than a threshold, and the change must persist for a required number of bars before it is accepted.
Why it matters
It is the central reference of the whole framework. Everything else is context around it.
VWAP Deviation Cantillon Flow ▼
(close − AVWAP) / AVWAP × 100. Positive is above the anchored average, negative is below. The Dev Filter treats this as a band around zero: if the absolute deviation at a crossover falls inside the band, the setup earns one additional factor. The band adapts to the instrument — tighter on low-volatility names, wider on high-volatility ones.
Why it matters
It answers how far price has travelled from the institutional cost basis, in terms that are comparable between a utility and a small-cap biotech.
Multi-AVWAP Convergence Cantillon Flow ▼
Three anchored averages at three different structural points: the current swing, a long-lookback pivot refreshed on a schedule, and a short-term reference such as the session open, weekly open or a volume spike. When the range between all three sits inside a fraction of ATR, they are converged.
Why it matters
Convergence means three separate populations of buyers share roughly the same cost basis, which makes the level far harder to move through — and far more informative when it finally gives way.
Anchor Hold Cantillon Flow ▼
How long price stays on one side of the anchor, measured in bars. Count the times the close crosses the anchor over the last L bars, then take L / (crossings + 1). The default L is 250 bars, roughly six weeks on a four-hour chart. New in v14, and specified in writing before it was tested so the result could not be tuned to a flattering number.
Why it matters
IVT earns by crossing the institutional anchor and holding one side long enough for the move to develop. Long runs let the runner survive and the trend leg gets captured. Frequent recrossing kills every runner within a few bars while each recross fires a fresh signal, so the cost is paid repeatedly and the payoff never arrives.
Volume Profile — POC and Value Area Volume ▼
The POC is the price with the most traded volume in the current swing, coloured by the delta imbalance measured at that row: green if buyers dominated, red if sellers did. The Value Area is the band containing 70% of the volume, expanded outward from the POC. Profile rows render as horizontal volume bars, with High Volume Nodes highlighted.
Why it matters
It shows where volume actually transacted rather than where price merely travelled. Price returns to the POC far more often than it respects a trendline.
Delta-Weighted Profile Volume ▼
Each bar's volume is split into buy and sell using where it closed within its range, then distributed across the price rows it spans. Rows render with a green buy portion and a red sell portion. VP Delta on the dashboard is the imbalance measured at the POC row only: above +15% is buyer dominance, below −15% is seller dominance.
Why it matters
Total volume tells you that a lot happened. Delta tells you which side was doing it.
Volatility Compression Volume ▼
Bollinger Band width as a percentage of price, ranked as a percentile against that instrument's own history. A low percentile means the current range is tight relative to how this instrument normally behaves. Compressed is below the threshold; COILED additionally requires the compression to have lasted at least the minimum duration.
Why it matters
The percentile approach is what makes the measure comparable across instruments at all. Absolute band width says nothing when a utility and a crypto proxy are on the same watchlist.
The Coiled Spring Volume ▼
Convergence and qualified compression at the same time. Three cost bases stacked at one price, with volatility wound tight around them. Directional bias tells you which way the framework expects it to release. Compression never blocks a signal — qualified compression adds full weight, unqualified adds half, and compression running beyond 30 bars adds two more.
Why it matters
Compression is a statement about the setup, not about direction, so a directional signal should never be vetoed by a non-directional condition.
The Cantillon Regime Filter Regime ▼
The macro engine. Three layers — liquidity, equities and risk — are each scored and resolved into one of nine regime states, each carrying a bonus that is added to the confluence score directly and clamped to the range −5 to +5 after the composite and VIX adjustments.
Why it matters
Your biggest decisions should be made at the regime level, not the individual chart level. This is the engine that makes that possible.
Regime States Regime ▼
Nine states, ordered by their bonus: FULL RISK-ON (+3), ACCUMULATION (+2), EARLY CYCLE (+1), INFLATIONARY PUMP and STRESS RECOVERY (0), LATE CYCLE and SPECULATIVE (−1), DISTRIBUTION (−2), FULL RISK-OFF (−3). Each is defined by which of the three layers are on.
Why it matters
ACCUMULATION and STRESS RECOVERY share an identical layer signature — bonds up, equities down, risk down. They are told apart by the rolling correlation of bond and equity returns, not prices. Above +0.35 the two are moving together, which is a liquidity event rather than a rotation, and the accumulation bonus is withheld. That is the falling-knife guard.
Leader and Transition Regime ▼
Leader names the strongest layer. Transition is the change in the composite since the last confirmed bar, and it updates only on bar close so the reading does not flicker intraday.
Why it matters
In a healthy cycle the order is liquidity leads, equities follow, risk last. When risk is leading and liquidity is negative, you are late.
Signal Tiers S1–S4 Scoring ▼
A base trigger requires three things at once: price crosses the AVWAP, momentum agrees over the momentum lookback, and the session filter permits it. That alone is S1. S2 needs two or more independent factors, S3 needs four, and S4 needs six plus the Cantillon bonus agreeing directionally.
Why it matters
S4 is the only tier that requires macro agreement. A six-factor setup fighting the regime is an S3, however good it looks on the chart.
The 14 Independent Factors Scoring ▼
The independent readings the tier is counted from — volume structure, absorption, liquidity sweeps, convergence, compression, deviation, delta imbalance and the rest. Each contributes at most its listed weight, and each is independent of the others.
Why it matters
That independence is the entire point. Three correlated readings of the same thing are one factor, not three, and counting them as three is how a system talks itself into a trade.
SD2L Extreme Scoring ▼
Fires when price has closed below the SD2 lower band within the confirmation window and then closes back above it. The state stays active, contributing its factor, until price closes back above SD1 Lower — that is the recovery threshold, not the entry. An SD2L Extreme with four or more supporting factors is promoted to S3 even without a crossover.
Why it matters
Institutional capitulation followed by a snapback is a legitimate entry that does not always produce a clean AVWAP cross on the same bar, and waiting for one costs the entry.
Expectancy in R Scoring ▼
The published record, replacing win rate as the headline from v14. Expectancy is the average result per trade measured in units of initial risk.
Why it matters
A win rate is mostly a statement about where the target sits. Nine wins at +0.2R against one loss at −1R is a 90% win rate and a net loss of 0.8R. Four wins at +3R against six losses at −1R is a 40% win rate and a gain of 6R. The second is the better system by a distance, and no win rate would have told you that.
The Cantillon Report

The framework, live.

The live regime dashboard, AVWAP levels, IVT targets, and Cantillon Flow state — published daily, Monday to Friday.

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