The Cantillon File · Surgical robots · Data to 2026-10-21

Intuitive Surgical ISRG

The surgical robot most hospitals already own, earning most of its money on the instruments used in every operation. The open question is whether procedure growth near 14% can carry revenue per operation lower as extended-use instruments and rival robots arrive. Seven questions that follow the money through the business, the price and the tape. Every number comes from SEC filings and market data, and every score from a rule printed next to it.

Business quality
9.0/10
High, from the numbers
Growth the price assumes
Members
Chapter 05
Money flow
Members
Chapter 06, IVT terminal

What this File stands on. Annual figures: FY2025 10-K (year to 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-03). "Last 12 months" figures add the quarters through 2026-09-30 (10-Q, filed 2026-10-21). Prices to 2026-10-21. "Last 12 months" figures leave out a one-off: the antitrust settlement charge, after tax (-$347M, quarter to 2026-09-30, Q3 2026 results release (8-K, Oct 2026)), taken out of net income. "Last 12 months" figures leave out a one-off: the antitrust settlement charge inside operating profit (-$450M, quarter to 2026-09-30, Q3 2026 results release (8-K, Oct 2026)), taken out of operating_income. The numbers rebuild every Monday, so each new 10-Q or 10-K appears within a week of filing. The written parts (business, defences, risks, the read) are from the FY2025 10-K, and the terminal read is dated 2026-10-22.

01 Where the money comes from

60 cents of every revenue dollar come from instruments and accessories, up 19% on the year.

What it does

Makes the da Vinci robot that surgeons use for keyhole operations, and the Ion robot for lung biopsies. 12,094 da Vinci systems were installed worldwide at the end of September 2026.

How it charges

Every operation uses instruments and accessories only Intuitive sells: 60% of revenue. Systems, sold or leased, are 25%, and service contracts 16%. Half of new da Vinci systems in 2025 were leased, many paid per use.

Who buys, and why

Hospitals and hospital groups, which pay for the robot once and for the instruments in every operation after that. Surgeons who trained on da Vinci keep asking for it.

Revenue by line, FY2025$11.6B last 12 months
Instruments and accessories60%+19% y/y
Systems25%+25% y/y
Services16%+21% y/y
Revenue by year+17.4% a year, 3 yrs
$5.7BFY21$6.2BFY22$7.1BFY23$8.4BFY24$10.1BFY25$11.6BTTM
68% United States32% Outside the US
02 Where the money goes

Of every $100 of sales, $24 is left for owners once staff stock pay is counted as a cost.

Follow $100 of sales, TTM
$100Sales-33Cost ofsales$67Gross profit-32Runningcosts, tax,working$35Operatingcash flow-4Capitalspending$31Free cashflow-7Stock pay tostaff$24Ownerearnings
Owner earnings per $100 of sales
$23FY21
$7FY22
$2FY23
$8FY24
$17FY25
$24TTM

Owner earnings = operating cash flow minus capital spending minus stock-based pay. Stock pay is a real cost: it is paid in shares instead of cash.

What it is building Paying off

It reinvests heavily, and past investment has earned its keep.

R&D, TTM13%of sales
Growth capex, TTM0%of sales, above depreciation
Owner earnings before growth spending$24per $100, against $24 after it
Return on the extra capital18%FY21 to FY25

R&D is treated as an investment written off over 5 years. Capital spending up to depreciation keeps the business standing; anything above it is growth spending. A company that puts more than 10% of sales into R&D and growth capex is building; it is paying off when after-tax profit has grown by at least 12 cents for every extra dollar of capital it put in.

03 Who ends up with it green

Dilution is held to 0.1% a year, so the company's growth mostly reaches each share.

Share count, per year+0.1%
Stock pay, % of sales7.2%
Returned, TTM$4.6B
Insiders own0.5%
Owner earnings per share+56.3% a year, 3 yrs
$3.56FY21$1.23FY22$0.44FY23$1.73FY24$4.69FY25$7.86TTM
Share count stable or falling+0.1% a year over 3 years
Stock pay below 10% of sales7.2% of sales (TTM)
Owner earnings per share growing+56.3% a year over 3 years

CEO Dave Rosa, in the seat since 2025.

04 What protects it

The strongest defence is switching costs. Gross margin has been steady, within 3 points over 6 periods.

Switching costsStrong, stable

A hospital that owns or leases a da Vinci, and whose surgeons trained on it, rarely runs a second robot from another maker beside it.

Network effectsWeak, growing

More than 3 million procedures a year build the training, data and clinical evidence that draw the next surgeon, but one more hospital does not make the robot better for another.

Scale economiesModerate, stable

Instrument factories and a service network sized for 12,000 robots spread fixed cost no newcomer can match yet, though Medtronic and J&J have the money to try.

Brand and intangiblesStrong, stable

More than 5,600 patents in force and over two decades of published clinical results behind every procedure type it is cleared for.

Does it show in the numbers?Direction: Stable
Gross margin held within 5 points3.3 point range
Return on invested capital above 12%24.7%
Profits turn into cash: free cash flow at least 80% of net income72% over 5 years

Sources are rated from the annual report (notes file). The two evidence checks are computed: margins that hold and high returns on capital are what a real defence looks like in the numbers.

05 What the price assumes Members

A reverse discounted cash flow: the growth today's price requires, set against what the business has actually delivered, and how that changes if you demand a different return.

06 Is money flowing in Members

The IVT terminal read on the weekly and daily charts: bias, money flow, strength, whether the entry window is open, and the sharp captures.

IVT terminal weekly chart for ISRG, blurred for the public version
07 What would break the case Members

The worst fall of the last five years, the balance sheet, the pressure points and the specific conditions that would break the case.

08 The read Members

Where the business sits on quality against price, the quality score line by line, and the conclusion.

Members

The rest of the ISRG File

Chapters 5 to 8: the growth today\'s price assumes, the full IVT terminal read with sharp captures, what would break the case, and the final read.

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Where every number comes from 12 figures, each linked to its SEC filing
FigureValuePeriodFiling
Revenue$10.1BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax
Gross profit$6.6BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03GrossProfit
Cost of sales$3.4BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold
Operating income$2.9BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03OperatingIncomeLoss
Net income$2.9BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03NetIncomeLoss
Operating cash flow$3.0BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities
Capital spending$540MFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets
Stock-based pay$788MFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03ShareBasedCompensation
Buybacks$2.3BFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock
Diluted shares363MFY2510-K, filed 2026-02-03WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
Cash and investments$3.0B2026-09-3010-Q, filed 2026-10-21CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue
Shareholders' equity$16.0B2026-09-3010-Q, filed 2026-10-21StockholdersEquity
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Educational research, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Scores are mechanical and reproducible from public filings; the notes are the author's judgment. Author position in ISRG: none. Sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (filings to 2026-09-30), daily prices to 2026-10-21. Past performance does not predict future returns.