SpaceX SPCX
A profitable satellite internet business funding the largest AI compute build in the market. The open question is whether $40 billion a year of AI capex earns a return before the IPO cash runs down. Seven questions that follow the money through the business, the price and the tape. Every number comes from SEC filings and market data, and every score from a rule printed next to it.
What this File stands on. Annual figures: FY2025 S-1/A (year to 2025-12-31, filed 2026-06-03). "Last 12 months" figures add the quarters through 2026-09-30 (8-K, filed 2026-10-20). No 10-K or 10-Q covers some of these periods yet, so those figures were copied by hand from the IPO prospectus (S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03), the Q2 2026 quarterly report (10-Q, filed 2026-08-04), the Q3 2026 results release (8-K, filed 2026-10-20), and each is linked in the sources table. They give way to the tagged filings once those are out. Prices to 2026-10-21. "Last 12 months" figures leave out a one-off: other income in Q3 2026, mostly gains on investments rather than operations ($1.0B, quarter to 2026-09-30, Q3 2026 results release (8-K, 20 Oct 2026)), taken out of net income. The numbers rebuild every Monday, so each new 10-Q or 10-K appears within a week of filing. The written parts (business, defences, risks, the read) are from the Q3 2026 results release and IPO prospectus (no 10-K yet), and the terminal read is dated 2026-10-21.
47 cents of every revenue dollar come from Connectivity (Starlink), up 57% on the year.
What it does
Builds and flies reusable rockets, runs the Starlink satellite internet network, and since the xAI merger builds AI models and the data centres they run on, sold as Grok and the Cursor coding tools.
How it charges
Starlink subscriptions and enterprise and government contracts are the largest line, 47% of revenue this year. Super Intelligence (AI cloud contracts, Cursor, Grok and X advertising) is 40% and growing fastest. Launches are 12%. Almost all of the operating profit comes from Starlink.
Who buys, and why
13.6 million Starlink consumer subscribers plus airlines, ships and governments. NASA and the US military buy launches. AI customers buy compute capacity, models and coding software.
After stock pay, the business still consumes $137 of every $100 it sells.
Owner earnings = operating cash flow minus capital spending minus stock-based pay. Stock pay is a real cost: it is paid in shares instead of cash.
What it is building Unproven
It reinvests heavily, but the numbers do not yet show that past investment has paid off.
R&D is treated as an investment written off over 5 years. Capital spending up to depreciation keeps the business standing; anything above it is growth spending. A company that puts more than 10% of sales into R&D and growth capex is building; it is paying off when after-tax profit has grown by at least 12 cents for every extra dollar of capital it put in.
New shares added 3.0% a year for 2 years. A $5.0B buyback in the last twelve months has not yet stopped the count rising.
Founder and CEO Elon Musk, in the seat since 2002.
The strongest defence is scale economies. Gross margin has been moving, within 16 points over 4 periods.
Consumers pay month to month and can leave, but enterprise and government contracts run longer and $17.5 billion of revenue is already paid in advance.
More satellites make the service better for every user, but that comes from capital spent, not from users attracting users.
It flies most of the world's mass to orbit, 84 of its 113 launches this year carried its own satellites at cost, and Connectivity earns a 45% operating margin.
Spectrum licences in 164 markets, a deal for US 800 MHz spectrum, and long-standing NASA and national security launch contracts.
Sources are rated from the annual report (notes file). The two evidence checks are computed: margins that hold and high returns on capital are what a real defence looks like in the numbers.
A reverse discounted cash flow: the growth today's price requires, set against what the business has actually delivered, and how that changes if you demand a different return.
The IVT terminal read on the weekly and daily charts: bias, money flow, strength, whether the entry window is open, and the sharp captures.
The worst fall of the last five years, the balance sheet, the pressure points and the specific conditions that would break the case.
Where the business sits on quality against price, the quality score line by line, and the conclusion.
The rest of the SPCX File
Chapters 5 to 8: the growth today\'s price assumes, the full IVT terminal read with sharp captures, what would break the case, and the final read.
Where every number comes from 14 figures, each linked to its SEC filing
| Figure | Value | Period | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.7B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Cost of sales | $9.5B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Operating income | -$2.6B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Net income | -$4.9B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Operating cash flow | $6.8B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Capital spending | $20.7B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Stock-based pay | $1.9B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Buybacks | $1.1B | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Dividends | $0 | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Diluted shares | 2,926M | FY25 | S-1/A, filed 2026-06-03as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Cash and investments | $51.3B | 2026-09-30 | 8-K, filed 2026-10-20as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Debt due within a year | $2.7B | 2026-09-30 | 8-K, filed 2026-10-20as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Long-term debt | $36.1B | 2026-09-30 | 8-K, filed 2026-10-20as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
| Shareholders' equity | $176.8B | 2026-09-30 | 8-K, filed 2026-10-20as reported (not XBRL-tagged) |
Educational research, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Scores are mechanical and reproducible from public filings; the notes are the author's judgment. Author position in SPCX: none. Sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts (filings to 2026-09-30), daily prices to 2026-10-21. Past performance does not predict future returns.