Recovery Cycle Tracker — Liberation Day Selloff → April 16
APR 2–7
FULL RISK-OFF · Liberation Day tariff shock · Composite collapsed · SPX −8%, NAS −10%, BTC −10% from highs
APR 8–9
REGIME INFLECTION · SD2L Extremes fired across indices · Vol Comp COILED signals triggered · Stress Recovery begins
APR 14–15
FULL RISK-ON CONFIRMED · All 3 layers re-engage · Composite +8/9 · BTC $74,912 · SPX 7,039 · NAS 26,288
APR 16 (Today)
FULL RISK-ON · +8/9 · Copper EXIT at 6.1155 (2nd Dev) · AVAX Building 73% · PACB Signal Tier active · Gold BEARISH divergence · Bd-Eq Corr STRESS RECOVERY 0.4–0.58
What the framework is saying today: The macro recovery from the Liberation Day tariff selloff has now produced FULL RISK-ON with +8/9 Composite — the highest regime reading in the framework. All three Cantillon layers are ON simultaneously for the first time in this cycle. The critical nuance is the Bd-Eq Corr STRESS RECOVERY reading: at 0.4–0.58 across indices, the framework is telling you the market is recovering from a stress event, not launching from a healthy base. Recovery-phase markets tend to overshoot on the way up, then consolidate — the Dev Filter is already FAILING across BTC, SPX, NAS100, and TSLA due to extended VWAP deviations. The correct posture is position management, not new deployment. Hold AVAX and PACB. Take Copper at the 2nd dev band. Don't chase the indices.
Market News — What the Tape Is Saying
The post-Liberation Day recovery has reached its first structural milestone: FULL RISK-ON with +8/9 Composite on all major instruments. The framework is in unanimous agreement — all three layers are active simultaneously for the first time in the current cycle. But the Bd-Eq Corr STRESS RECOVERY reading at 0.4–0.58 across the board is a reminder that this is a recovery from a stress event, not a clean secular bull launch. Markets are moving fast, Dev Filters are failing, and the framework's most important signal today is restraint — not new entries, but protection and management of what's already working.
FULL RISK-ON Confirmed — Composite +8/9, All Three Cantillon Layers Active
For the first time since the Liberation Day tariff shock, the Cantillon Framework is printing a full three-layer confirmation: Liquidity (✓), Equity (✓), and Risk (✓) are simultaneously ON. Composite at +8/9 with Macro Bonus +4 is the second-strongest aggregate reading the framework can produce. The VIX Layer reads 0.5 (Neutral at 18) — not yet at the maximum risk-appetite level, but no longer in stress suppression territory. Transition signals are stabilising (→ Stable system-wide) or improving (↑ Improving on TSLA and PACB). The regime is confirmed: full deployment window, quality setups only, no FOMO chasing.
Bd-Eq Corr STRESS RECOVERY 0.4–0.58 — Recovery Phase, Not Secular Launch
Every major equity instrument on the board is showing the same Bd-Eq Corr reading: STRESS RECOVERY at 0.4 (BTC, NAS100) through 0.58 (SPX, TSLA, Gold). This reading tracks the bond-equity correlation normalisation after a stress-induced breakdown. During the Liberation Day selloff, bonds and equities sold together (positive correlation during liquidation). The 0.4–0.58 readings indicate this correlation is reverting toward the neutral 0.5 equilibrium — the market is healing, not yet operating from a place of genuine institutional confidence.
Stress Recovery markets overshoot, then consolidate. The Dev Filter failures across most instruments are the framework's early warning signal that the first phase of overshoot is near completion.
Copper Exits at 6.1155 — 2nd VWAP Dev Band, WR 83%, Trade Complete ✓
The Copper trade closes today at 6.1155 — exactly at the 2nd VWAP deviation band, where the framework identifies institutional resistance and mean-reversion risk. VWAP Dev at +6.81% is deep into institutional overhead supply territory. This is the correct exit: not a stop-out, not a panic, not a premature close — it's the framework's designed exit point, where the risk/reward on holding degrades and the probability of a mean-reversion pullback to VWAP rises sharply. WR 83% over 500 samples (12/12 on this cycle).
This is what disciplined institutional trading looks like: let the setup build, let the position run to the framework's target, exit cleanly at the resistance level.
Gold BEARISH in FULL RISK-ON — The Key Divergence to Watch
Gold prints BEARISH with Conf Score 10 (1F) — the highest confidence score on the board — while every other major instrument is BULLISH. In a FULL RISK-ON macro environment, this is a meaningful divergence. Gold COILED at 45% with a negative VWAP Dev of −0.87% and SD2L Extreme 76 bars ago suggests the framework is positioning Gold for a downside resolution as institutional money rotates out of the risk-off safe haven and back into equities and crypto. The Dev Filter PASSES on Gold (within the +3% threshold) — which means a bearish signal here would have full validity if Vol Comp fires.
Monitor Gold for a downside Vol Comp release. A breakdown below AVWAP would confirm the rotation trade is complete.
AVAX — Building 73%, Dev Filter PASS, Conf 7 (2F) — Cleanest Setup on the Board
AVAX is the standout instrument in today's framework scan. While every equity index and BTC is showing Expanded Vol Comp with failing Dev Filters, AVAX is building compression at 73% with a confirmed PASS on the Dev Filter. Bought at $9.50 on April 14, the position is currently near breakeven ($9.49) — this is normal in building Vol Comp setups. The 88% WR over 500 samples (8/14 on this cycle) at the Mid Range tier gives a +5pp enhancement to the signal quality. Conf Score 7 (2F) across two timeframes is strong conviction.
This is the setup to watch. When Vol Comp fires from 73%, the framework's statistical edge is significant.
Chart Analysis — Key Instruments
AVAX is the cleanest active setup in the portfolio — and the most important chart to monitor today. The Building 73% Vol Comp reading is approaching the threshold where compression typically resolves into a directional move. At +1.5% VWAP Dev with the filter PASSING, AVAX is not extended relative to institutional cost basis — unlike almost everything else on the board. Conf Score 7 (2F) across two timeframes provides the strongest multi-timeframe confirmation in the watchlist. The bear swing (495 bars elapsed) is a structural reminder that the broader context is recovery-phase, not established uptrend — but within that recovery, AVAX's Volume Composite structure is the most technically complete setup available. The position entered at $9.50 on April 14 is effectively at breakeven and loading energy. The next meaningful move is likely to come when Vol Comp fires. Watch for the Building percentage to cross 80%+ — that's when the signal enters its most sensitive window.
ENTRY $9.50 · Apr 14
CURRENT $9.49
VOL COMP Building 73% → watch 80%+
DEV FILTER PASS +1.5%
FLOOR $9.20 (PDL support)
Pacific Biosciences is at a very early stage in its setup development. Entered at $1.61 on April 14, the position is currently at breakeven — which is expected at this stage of the signal lifecycle. The Signal Tier activation is the key data point: when Signal Tier is active on a stock with this kind of multi-month base structure (the chart shows STRONG DIV signals from February through March, followed by consolidation), the framework is identifying institutional accumulation that hasn't yet been confirmed by price. VWAP Dev at +0.27% is the tightest reading on the board — PACB is essentially sitting at the institutional cost basis, which is the ideal entry position for a building setup. Transition ↑ Improving adds further conviction. No action required on PACB today. The position is correctly sized for an early-stage setup. Let the signal develop — patience here is the edge.
ENTRY $1.61 · Apr 14
CURRENT $1.61
DEV FILTER PASS +0.27%
TRANSITION ↑ Improving
SUPPORT $1.50 structural floor
The Copper trade closes today at 6.1155 at the 2nd VWAP deviation band — this is textbook framework execution. The 2nd dev band at +6.81% VWAP Dev marks the zone where institutional supply historically overwhelms demand, creating mean-reversion risk that outweighs the reward of holding further. With the Dev Filter now FAILING, the Copper setup no longer meets the framework's criteria for a live position. The WR tracking at 83% (12/12 on this cycle — T1:11, Stop:1) confirms the statistical quality of Copper signals in the current regime. This trade was run as designed: entered on the institutional demand zone, held through the framework's momentum window, and exited at the institutional resistance level. No emotional decision required — the levels made the call.
EXIT $6.1155 · 2nd Dev Band ✓
VWAP DEV +6.81% → Institutional resistance
WR 83% | 30b avg (12/12)
STATUS Position Closed · Capital freed
BTC's 93% WR over 500 samples (15/17, T1:14 Stop:1 Open:2) remains the strongest statistical track record in the watchlist. The Equity Daily +10pp tier enhances signal quality when it fires. The challenge today is that BTC is at +5.95% VWAP Dev — above the framework's FAIL threshold — meaning the instrument is extended relative to institutional cost basis and a fresh entry here carries higher mean-reversion risk than the signal warrants. The two open trades in the BTC WR tracking (Open:2) suggest positions are running from earlier in the recovery cycle. Do not add to BTC here. The framework will reassess when VWAP Dev compresses back toward the PASS threshold — that's the next entry window.
CURRENT $74,912
DEV FILTER FAIL · +5.95%
NEXT ENTRY Watch for Dev compression → PASS
FLOOR $71,000 · SD2L Extreme base
SPX prints BULLISH with +8/9 Composite support and Conf 6 (1F) — a technically clean regime alignment. The 82% WR (17/17, T1:14, Stop:3) on the recovery side mirrors the bear-cycle precision seen earlier. Vol Comp at Expanded 27% means the compression energy has released and is expanding — this is the momentum phase, not the loading phase. VWAP Dev at +5.56% confirms the index has moved well above institutional cost basis. The framework says the trend is intact but the entry window is closed. SPX is a regime confirmation signal today, not a trade setup. Watch for the Vol Comp to re-compress (Expanded → Building) before the next quality entry presents.
CURRENT 7,039
DEV FILTER FAIL · +5.56%
TRANSITION → Stable
SUPPORT 6,800 AVWAP zone
NAS100 is the most extended instrument on the board by VWAP deviation at +7.01%. The 58% WR is the lowest of the major indices — compared to SPX at 82% and DJIA at 87% — indicating NAS100 signals carry the least historical precision in this cycle. This is typical: the Nasdaq is the highest-beta equity index and tends to overshoot more aggressively in both directions during stress recovery events. NAS100 confirms the regime but is emphatically not a new entry. The +7.01% VWAP Dev is extreme — the framework explicitly marks this as a FAIL. Hold existing positions; do not add exposure at these levels.
CURRENT 26,288
DEV FILTER FAIL · +7.01% · Most Extended
WR 58% — lowest conviction index
SUPPORT 24,500 AVWAP zone
Gold is the most interesting divergence on today's board. Conf Score 10 (1F) is the highest reading in the watchlist — but it is BEARISH. This is the framework's clearest signal that institutional money is rotating out of the classic safe haven and back into risk assets, consistent with the Bd-Eq Corr STRESS RECOVERY reading. Gold is COILED at 45% with SD2L Extreme 76 bars ago, sitting just below VWAP at −0.87% deviation — the setup architecture is in place for a downside Vol Comp fire. The Dev Filter PASSES, which means a bearish signal here would carry full framework validity. Gold is not in the long portfolio. The framework is watching for a COILED release to the downside as rotation completes. A sustained break below AVWAP confirms the rotation trade.
CURRENT $4,820
BIAS BEARISH · Conf 10 (1F)
VOL COMP COILED 45% → Watch for downside fire
VWAP −0.87% · PASS · Bearish valid
TSLA remains the most interesting single-stock setup in the framework — not for entry, but for regime reading. Transition ↑ Improving (the only major instrument with this reading alongside PACB) tells you the institutional volume flow is actively accelerating in the bullish direction, not merely stabilising. The 491-bar bull swing and Conf 7 (2F) multi-timeframe confirmation confirm the structural recovery narrative. However, +4.77% VWAP Dev FAIL limits fresh entry. TSLA is a benchmark for the equity recovery's momentum: as long as Transition remains ↑ Improving, the recovery phase has institutional backing. Watch for the Transition signal — if it reverts to → Stable or worse, that's the first warning sign for the broader equity regime.
CURRENT $383.99
TRANSITION ↑ Improving — Monitor
DEV FILTER FAIL · +4.77%
SUPPORT $370 AVWAP zone
Market Radar — Full Board Scan
| Asset |
Bias |
Price |
VWAP Dev |
Filter |
Status |
| AVAX | BULL | $9.49 | +1.5% | PASS | ⚡ Building 73% · Active long from $9.50 · Vol Comp loading |
| PACB | BULL | $1.61 | +0.27% | PASS | ⚡ Signal Tier · Active long from $1.61 · Transition ↑ Improving |
| COPPER | BULL | $6.11 | +6.81% | FAIL | ✓ CLOSED at 6.1155 · 2nd Dev Band · Trade complete |
| DJIA | BULL | 48,522 | +2.41% | PASS | WR 87% (13/15) · PASS filter · Watch for setup |
| BTC | BULL | $74,912 | +5.95% | FAIL | 93% WR · Extended · No new entry — monitor for compression |
| SPX | BULL | 7,039 | +5.56% | FAIL | 82% WR · Expanded 27% · Regime confirm only |
| TSLA | BULL | $383.99 | +4.77% | FAIL | ↑ Improving · Recovery benchmark · Extended |
| NAS100 | BULL | 26,288 | +7.01% | FAIL | 58% WR · Most extended · No entry |
| GOLD | BEAR | $4,820 | −0.87% | PASS | Conf 10 · COILED 45% · Rotation divergence · Watch for downside fire |
DJIA note: The Dow is the only major equity index with a PASSING Dev Filter at +2.41% and a WR of 87% (13/15) — the highest among equity indices. If you're looking for an equity-market re-entry point on mean-reversion, DJIA is the framework's cleanest candidate when a setup fires. Monitor for Vol Comp signal.
Cantillon Synthesis — April 16, 2026 · FULL RISK-ON · Composite +8/9 · Session Quality 7/10
The framework has arrived at its destination: FULL RISK-ON with +8/9 Composite and all three Cantillon layers simultaneously active. This is the regime the setup queue was built for — the COILED signals that accumulated at the Liberation Day lows are now firing and running. Copper delivers and exits cleanly at the 2nd dev band. AVAX is loading. PACB is early but alive. The Bd-Eq Corr STRESS RECOVERY readings (0.4–0.58) confirm what the charts show: a genuine, institutionally-backed recovery from a stress event, not a mechanical bounce destined to fail.
The discipline required today is different from FULL RISK-OFF discipline. In a bear regime, the discipline is patience and capital preservation — don't trade until the signals fire. In a FULL RISK-ON recovery-phase regime, the discipline is restraint from overtrading — don't chase what's already moved. The Dev Filter is FAILING across BTC, SPX, NAS100, TSLA, and Copper. That's five of nine major instruments on the board that the framework explicitly marks as too extended for fresh entry. The two exceptions that matter — AVAX and PACB — are already in the portfolio. DJIA is the one notable PASS-filter index if a fresh equity position is warranted, but only on a setup signal, not in anticipation of one.
The Gold BEARISH divergence at Conf 10 (1F) is this session's most important non-portfolio signal. In FULL RISK-ON, institutional capital is rotating away from safe haven assets. Gold COILED at 45% with a bearish bias and passing Dev Filter is the framework's way of flagging that rotation is in progress. Watch for the Vol Comp fire on Gold — a downside resolution here would be the confirmation that stress recovery has completed and the regime is transitioning from recovery to expansion.
THE READ IN ONE SENTENCE: FULL RISK-ON is confirmed, Copper is banked at the 2nd dev band, AVAX is loading at 73% and PACB is building — hold your positions, let the framework work, and don't chase the extended board.