The Fit filter ran live across all eighteen instruments this morning. Three came back green, six red, the rest amber. Red means the framework has not earned on that instrument on its own record, so those setups are off the sheet no matter how the chart looks today. Ouster leads the greens at plus 0.67R a trade across 101 resolved signals with a 4.05x profit factor. Toyota is the only green improving rather than fading. The S&P, the Dow and Wheat are all red, which is why no index trade appears below. Two of the three US indices sit at maximum compression and the filter still says leave them alone, which is what it was built for. Worth noting separately: every red is a name that has spent this year in a range and every green has trended. That is a pattern in the instruments, not a property of the filter. The one number is Ouster's ceiling, and the overnight print is already five cents through it.
Ouster trigger. The Board first showed the Ouster trigger as a 4-hour close under its level. Ouster is a long and the trigger is a 4-hour close above it. The level itself was correct and is unchanged, as is the invalidation. Members see the corrected row in the table below.
Opening summary. This brief originally said every name the filter flagged red carries a negative expectancy. The Fit light is calculated from expectancy, so that sentence restated its own definition rather than reporting a result. The summary has been reworded. No level, direction or size on the Board was affected.
July CPI is released this morning and it is the single print that decides whether September is a hike. Consensus looks for headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% on the year and 0.6% on the month, up sharply from 0.2% in June, with the acceleration driven mostly by the oil shock rather than by anything domestic. Core is expected to go the other way, softening from 4.7% to 4.3%. That split is the problem. A hot headline with a cooling core hands both camps on the committee the number they wanted, and a Fed that has already seen three dissents in favour of a hike does not need much encouragement.
INFLATIONARY PUMP at +3/9 still scores a long book with the framework rather than against it, but the tailwind is down two points from yesterday's +5/9 and this is the thinnest reading in three weeks. The caveat is unchanged and is now the reason the new filter exists: the index and commodity feeds carry a bond-equity correlation of 0.46 to 0.49, through the 0.35 line where bonds stop hedging equities, while the single-name feeds read a normal 0.33. Own the names. The indices are scored on a broken hedge.
Worth the strip today because the summation index made another new low in the sequence while price held, and because the filter reached the same conclusion from a completely different input. Two independent measures, one answer.
| Metric | Universe scan | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Divergence flag | ACTIVE | Price rising, participation lagging. Sixth session. |
| A/D net | +14 on 44 advancing | Unchanged for a third day, to the share. |
| A/D ratio | 1.47 | Unchanged for a third day. |
| McClellan | −51.5 | Negative, improved from −62.4. |
| A/D line | +1,544 | Up from +1,530. |
| Summation | +11,474 | Down from +11,525. Sixth day lower. |
| % above 50-day | 59.5% | Unchanged. |
| % above 200-day | 63.5% | Unchanged. |
Four measures frozen, one lower, two higher, flag still on. Enough to own individual names on their own signals. Not enough to buy an index sitting 4.17% above its anchor with a red light on it.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry (dev · price) | Edge (Expectancy · Conf · Comp) | Fit · Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OUST | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.67R on 101 resolved · PF 4.05x · Conf 6 (2F) · Expanded 41% | GREEN ×1.0 · fading |
| 2 | TM | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.16R on 144 resolved · PF 1.82x · Conf 6 (2F) · Building 85% | GREEN ×1.0 · improving |
| 3 | GILD | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.12R on 226 resolved · PF 1.74x · Conf 2 (1F) · Expanded 53% | GREEN ×1.0 · fading |
| 4 | RXRX | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.09R on 26 resolved · PF 1.71x · Conf 7 (3F) · Signal 1 live, Dev PASS | AMBER ×0.5 · holding |
| 5 | NAS100 | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.07R on 263 resolved · PF 1.33x · Conf 9 (4F) · COILED 100% | AMBER ×0.5 · holding |
| 6 | BG | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.05R on 181 resolved · PF 1.19x · Conf 6 (2F) · Building 91% | AMBER ×0.5 · improving |
| 7 | CRSP | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.04R on 68 resolved · PF 1.21x · Conf 6 (2F) · Expanded 38% | AMBER ×0.5 · holding |
| 8 | BCE | Long | 🔒 Members | +0.05R on 189 resolved · PF 1.22x · Conf 2 (1F) · Expanded 26% | AMBER ×0.5 · holding |
| 9 | NVDL | Flat | 🔒 Members | No record yet · n=11 of 20 needed · Conf 7 (3F) · Dev PASS | UNPROVEN · no size |
| 10 | CBRS | Flat | 🔒 Members | Record error, reload · Conf 4 (1F) · Signal 1 live, Dev PASS | UNAVAILABLE · no size |
If you watch one: Ouster. Its expectancy is plus 0.67R a trade across 101 resolved signals at a 4.05x profit factor, with an average winner of +1.4R against a −0.6R loser. That is not marginally better than the rest of this sheet, it is roughly four times the next best name. It is also one of only three instruments in the scan to clear the new trend filter at full size. Two things argue the other way and are in the paid half: a strong bearish divergence printed into yesterday's high, and the overnight tick has already carried price through the top of its entry band. Toyota has the improving fit and Gilead has the deeper sample. Neither has this payoff. The band, the close it needs, and the price that ends it are below.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete August 12 brief: the Ouster band and the ceiling the overnight print has already cleared, the Toyota close that confirms the only improving green light on the sheet, the Gilead level under the deepest sample in the scan, every red name with its cushion and the two that are within a point of turning amber, the overnight gap check on all twelve single names, plus the annotated IVT terminal chart for all eighteen instruments scanned.
Fit · the trend and chop filter, new to this brief. GREEN means the tape is trending and a signal can be taken at full size; AMBER halves the position; RED means no new entries whatever the setup looks like. The multiplier is stated on every row. Cushion (pt) · how far the filter reading sits from flipping to the next light, in filter points. A negative cushion means the name is already through into no-entry territory. Improving / holding / fading is the direction that cushion is travelling. Expectancy (R) · the average result per signal in units of risk, where one R is the distance from entry to stop. +0.16R means a signal returns on average sixteen percent of what it risks. A stop is always exactly −1.00R, so the number cannot be flattered by moving the target. Always published with the resolved-signal count next to it. Resolved · signals that have finished, win or lose. Open signals are excluded. Under twenty resolved the terminal refuses to report a figure at all and prints the sample instead. PF · profit factor, gross winnings divided by gross losses. Above 1.0 the signal set makes money, below it loses. Avg W/L is the average winner against the average loser, both in R. Dev · percentage distance from the institutional VWAP anchor, the volume-weighted price institutions actually paid. Dev Filter · PASS means price is close enough to that anchor that the entry is priced well and the reading adds a confluence factor; OPEN means inside the band; FAIL means too extended for a clean new entry. Gate · the price where the band is exceeded and no new entry qualifies. Conf (XF) · institutional confidence score confirmed across X timeframes. Higher is better. COILED / Building % · volatility compression. Higher means a larger expected move when it releases. COILED is maximum, Building is partial, Expanded means no coil is loaded. None of them state direction, and none of them override the Fit light. Signal tiers · S1 is the base crossover; Signal 2 adds two independent confirming factors; Signal 3 adds four; Signal 4 adds six plus regime alignment. Snapback (SD2L) · the oversold reversal signal fired two standard deviations below the anchor. Bar count is how long ago it fired. Composite · the sum of the nine active Cantillon layers, maximum +9. Macro bonus · the regime's tailwind or headwind applied to every trade. Bd-Eq Corr · 60-bar rolling correlation of bond and equity returns; above 0.35 the two are treated as one risk and bonds stop hedging equities. Tiers · High-Volatility strict, Mid-Range (+5pp band), Equity Daily (+10pp band). The tier sets the base position; the Fit multiplier is applied on top of it.