Uber and Dollar General are the only two names in this scan whose entry has already qualified. Both fired the same signal tier, both carry a green trend light, and both have a positive record on a sample deep enough to publish. Behind them, five more instruments sit inside a third of a percent of their own entry ceiling, so one down session opens half the board at once. Everything above them is measured against Nasdaq 29,292.
Treasury officials said Monday that the roughly $1 trillion sitting in the Treasury General Account could be used to fund bond buybacks, five days after the department doubled its long-end operations to at least $4 billion apiece for the window running September 9 to November 4. Gold went to a fifteen-week high on it, December futures touching $4,738.50, and bitcoin closed an eight-day advance of about 28% by trading above $80,000 for the first time since May. One bid, two instruments. The Treasury is now managing its own long end rather than waiting on the Fed to do it, which means duration, gold and crypto all price off fiscal announcements from here.
Money and risk appetite are switched on, stocks are the leg that is off, and the macro tailwind is exactly zero, so nothing on this page earns extra size for being on the right side of the cycle and six of the seven positions below are at half or less because of it. The caveat worth holding: participation is confirming underneath, with 72.1% of the list above its 200-day line, so the stock leg is switched off on the Nasdaq's bias alone rather than on any broad deterioration.
The index book reads confirming and the single-name book reads neutral, off the same underlying list. That gap is the argument for the half sizes. Seven stocks in ten hold their 200-day line, which is the strongest number on the page and the reason the stock leg being off does not translate into shorting the indices.
| Metric | Index book | Single-name book | Plain read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | Confirming +5 / 8 | Neutral +2 / 8 | The index charts have participation behind them. The stock list is flat. |
| Short-term momentum | +35.2 | +0.5 | Advancers minus decliners, smoothed. Both improving, one barely. |
| Above the 50-day | 59.4% | 59.4% | Improving, and still under six in ten. |
| Above the 200-day | 72.1% | 72.1% | Widened again. The long uptrend has not cracked. |
| Trend | Flat | −2 | The index book stopped fading. The stock list has not. |
Seven names out of seventeen carry a size this morning. Two of the seven have entries that are already qualified. The other ten are in the Watch and Avoid table further down, and three of those carry deeper samples than anything on this list.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UBER Uber Technologies | Long | 🔒 Members | The entry has already printed inside the window and the projected move reads a full unit of risk. Cleanest cost-line structure in the scan: one crossing in 125 bars. Entry qualified · signal tier 2 · record +.13R on 38 signals · light GREEN, improving, 15.5-point cushion · confirmation 6 across 2 timeframes · trending, 125 bars per side, 1 crossing | Full |
| 2 | DG Dollar General | Long | 🔒 Members | The second qualified entry, on more than twice the sample, with the range wound to 89%. It reports Thursday before the open and the options market has a 12.5% move priced in, so the coil may resolve on the print rather than on the tape. Entry qualified · signal tier 2 · record +.14R on 86 signals · light GREEN, improving, 10.8-point cushion · confirmation 4 across 2 timeframes · compression building at 89% | Half |
| 3 | GMED Globus Medical | Long | 🔒 Members | The tightest coil on the page, with the entry ceiling within one bar's reach. Read the record carefully: +8.31R per signal over 99 finished ones is not a steady edge, it is one or two enormous winners inside an 84-bar window. Size it like the confirmation score, not like the record. Entry open, cross pending · record +8.31R on 99 signals, outlier · light GREEN, fading, 54.4-point cushion · confirmation 4 across 2 timeframes · compression building at 97% · 18 crossings on 13-bar swings | Half |
| 4 | TM Toyota Motor | Short | 🔒 Members | Sellers run the most-traded price by 17% and the cost lines have converged at 84%. The macro is sitting on top of it: a 50% auto tariff threat with a January date on it. Entry open, cross pending · record +.15R on 118 signals · light GREEN, holding, 10.1-point cushion · confirmation 6 across 2 timeframes · sellers dominant −17% at the most-traded price · trending, 62.5 bars per side | Half |
| 5 | CECO CECO Environmental | Long | 🔒 Members | A green light and +.17R over 120 signals, attached to a confirmation score of 2 and sellers running the most-traded price by 22%. The record says buy and the tape under it disagrees. Entry open, cross pending · record +.17R on 120 signals · light GREEN, fading, 10.7-point cushion · confirmation 2 across 2 timeframes · sellers dominant −22% · range expanded at 51% | Quarter |
| 6 | RIVN Rivian Automotive | Long | 🔒 Members | Best record per signal of anything with a green light, on the thinnest sample that publishes at all. It also crosses its own cost line every nine bars, which is why this is a quarter and not a half. Entry open, cross pending · record +.22R on 22 signals, just over the floor · light GREEN, holding, 36.7-point cushion · confirmation 3 across 1 timeframe · 26 crossings on 9-bar swings | Quarter |
| 7 | CMI Cummins | Long | 🔒 Members | Widest agreement in the scan at three timeframes, and the only amber light here, which halves the size before anything else does. Price has fallen roughly 90 points in six sessions and is still above the cost line. Entry open, cross pending · record +.08R on 136 signals · light AMBER, holding, 6.9-point cushion · confirmation 4 across 3 timeframes, the widest here · trending, zero crossings in 250 bars | Half |
This is the price institutions paid on the Nasdaq over the current swing, and the index is sitting 52 points under it at 29,240 with a bearish read and the range coiled at 83%. The Nasdaq is the only one of the four indices reading bearish, which is the entire reason the stock leg of the cycle is switched off while participation underneath is confirming. Reclaim 29,292 on a four-hour close and that leg turns on, the score moves, and the red lights on this page start flipping one at a time. Stay under it and seven of the seventeen instruments here remain gate-locked no matter how good the compression looks. The floor of the Nasdaq's own entry window is in the members section.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete August 25, 2026 brief: both qualified entries with their levels, the five names sitting inside a third of a percent of their ceiling, the Nasdaq window floor, and all seventeen terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it, and that distance is what "deviation" means. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. The width depends on the instrument's own volatility tier: two percent for indices and large caps, three percent for mid-range names, three to five for the high-volatility list. Open means you are inside it and waiting on the cross. Qualified means the cross has already printed inside it. Shut means the move has run and you wait for a pullback or a fresh coil. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close through the far edge of that window, in the trade's direction, never a touch. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Building means it is loading. Coiled means it is nearly full. High compression means the next move should be a big one, says nothing about direction, and never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better, and two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. Signal tier · awarded when the entry cross, the confirmation and the window all line up at once. Two names carry one today and fifteen do not. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and never published at all below 20 of them. It is in-sample, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Trend light and cushion · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. The cushion is how far the light is from changing, and a negative cushion means it has already changed against you.
Readings captured Tuesday 25 August 2026, 11:06–11:26 CEST, from the IVT v14 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. That is why every trigger here is a close and not a touch.
Records are in-sample, calculated over the same history the settings were chosen on, so they describe the past and forecast nothing. Index levels come from cash CFD feeds and will differ from your own index or futures contract. Entry prices and window edges are derived from the percentage distances the terminal publishes, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point. No level here is meant to survive an earnings gap.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.