The framework reads Toyota short on nine readings across two timeframes, with sellers running the most-traded price by 17% and the institutional cost lines clustered at 76%. All of that was measured below the line large money paid. Pre-market has already carried it back above. The two clean setups this morning are BCE and Uber, both short, both on green lights, and Uber holds direction better than anything else on the page. Nine names out of twenty-three carry a size. Every index is on a red light again.
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first American military action there in more than a month, and the launchers were being readied to lay mines. Brent trades at 89.70, up 1.82% on the day and 7.08% on the month, with six to eight million barrels still moving through the waterway every day. Nothing that was open has closed. What changed is that an energy bid is back underneath the inflation problem the Fed chair spent Friday warning about.
All three legs are still on and the tailwind still pays longs, but the bond-versus-stock reading moved from normal at 0.34 on Friday to stress recovery at 0.38 this morning, the first cross-asset slip in a week, and the direction of travel went from improving to flat. The caveat that decides everything below: twenty-one of twenty-three instruments are inside their entry window waiting on a cross, two are shut, and not one has qualified. One housekeeping note before the table, because it is visible in the captures. The four index charts run on broker cash feeds and their regime panels print early cycle at +4 with the risk leg off, while all nineteen US-exchange charts print full risk-on at +7 with all three legs on. The exchange feeds govern, as they have all week. The CFD panels are a symbol-resolution artefact, not a second opinion.
The strip runs when it argues with the regime, and this morning it does. The structural measures are holding and the short-horizon measures are not, into a cycle reading that only just went to full risk-on.
| Reading | Friday close | Thursday close | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advancing versus declining | +18 net, 46 advancing | +28 net, 51 advancing | Weaker |
| Advance-decline ratio | 1.64 | — | Positive |
| Above the 50-day line | 62.2% | 68.9% | Weaker |
| Above the 200-day line | 70.3% | 73.0% | Barely changed |
| McClellan oscillator | +28.6 | +28.4 | Flat |
| Summation index | +11,603 | +11,574 | Still climbing |
Net advancers fell from 51 to 46 and the fifty-day column gave up 6.7 points in a session, while the two-hundred-day column moved 2.7 and the summation index went the other way entirely. Short-horizon participation is thinning under a structure that has not cracked. That is a reason to be choosier about which name you take, not a reason to stand aside, and it is why seven of the nine sized rows below read short.
Nine names out of twenty-three carry a size this morning. Five are full and four are half, and seven of the nine read short into a cycle score the framework has just called full risk-on. Every trigger is a four-hour close in the trade's direction, never a touch, and the get-out is always a close back through the cost line. The other fourteen instruments sit in Watch and Avoid below, and four of them are the indices.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | What the terminal reads | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BCE BCE Inc | Short | 🔒 Members | Deepest record in the brief and the range is wound to 97% on the downside. Thirteen readings across three timeframes.Record +.16R on 144 signals · light GREEN, fading · compression coiled down at 97% · last snapback reset 52 bars ago | Full |
| 2 | UBER Uber Technologies | Short | 🔒 Members | Ten readings across two timeframes and the steadiest structure on the page by a distance. The only green light here that is improving and sitting on its cost line at the same time.Record +.13R on 38 signals · light GREEN, improving · compression building at 76% · 2 crossings on 83-bar swings | Full |
| 3 | TM Toyota Motor | Short | 🔒 Members | One of two charts where the volume takes a side, and it takes the short side by 17%. Pre-market has moved against it, which is why the size is halved rather than the row deleted.Record +.15R on 118 signals · light GREEN, holding · cost lines clustered at 76% · sellers dominant by 17% · 3 crossings on 62-bar swings | Half |
| 4 | DG Dollar General | Short | 🔒 Members | Friday's long, flipped. Same instrument, same line, opposite side, after the earnings gap was sold back through it. Coiled at 79% with the light still green.Record +.14R on 86 signals · light GREEN, improving · compression coiled at 79% · nine readings across two timeframes | Full |
| 5 | CECO CECO Environmental | Short | 🔒 Members | Best publishable record on the page. On Friday it read long while sellers ran the price by 22%, the widest disagreement in that scan. The direction has come round to the volume.Record +.17R on 120 signals, the highest here · light GREEN, fading · sellers dominant by 22% · eight readings across two timeframes | Full |
| 6 | F Ford Motor | Short | 🔒 Members | Sixteen readings across three timeframes, the highest in the scan for the second session running, and the only coiled spring the terminal has flagged. It was Friday's long. It closed under the line over the weekend and the same evidence now points the other way.Record +.09R on 129 signals · light AMBER, fading · coiled spring at 85% · convergence active at 94% · 21 crossings on 11-bar swings | Half |
| 7 | GMED Globus Medical | Long | 🔒 Members | Widest cushion on the page and eight readings across three timeframes. Its record field is faulty and is not published here, so this row is taken on confirmation alone.Record field reported faulty, not published · light GREEN, fading, 54.4-point cushion · compression expanded at 69% · 18 crossings on 13-bar swings | Full |
| 8 | CMI Cummins | Long | 🔒 Members | Zero crossings in 250 bars, again. Nothing else in the brief holds a direction like this. The light is amber, which is the whole reason it is a half.Record +.08R on 136 signals · light AMBER, holding, 6.9-point cushion · eight readings across three timeframes · trending, 0 crossings in 250 bars | Half |
| 9 | RIVN Rivian Automotive | Short | 🔒 Members | Thinnest publishable sample here and the noisiest structure carrying a size. It earns a half on its cushion and nothing else.Record +.22R on 22 signals · light GREEN, holding, 36.7-point cushion · six readings across one timeframe · 29 crossings on 8-bar swings | Half |
If you watch one, watch Uber. BCE carries the deeper record by a mile, 144 finished signals against 38, but it crosses its own cost line every eleven bars. Uber holds direction for eighty-three bars a side and has crossed twice in the entire window. That is the difference between a good average and a trade you can actually sit in.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete August 31, 2026 brief: all nine sized entries with their windows, triggers and get-outs, Toyota's contested cost line and what a close on either side of it does, the two names where sellers actually run the price, the fourteen instruments in Watch and Avoid, and all twenty-three terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it, and that distance is what "deviation" means. Sell near it and you are selling where they bought. Sell far below it and you are handing them the profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. The width comes from the instrument's own volatility tier: two percent for indices and large caps, three percent for mid-range names, three to five for the high-volatility list. Open means you are inside it and waiting on the cross. Qualified means the cross has already printed inside it. Shut means the move has run and you wait for a pullback or a fresh coil. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close, in the trade's direction, never a touch. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Building means it is loading. Coiled means it is nearly full, and coiled spring is the terminal's own label for the tightest version. High compression means the next move should be a big one, says nothing about direction, and never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better, and two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. Buyer or seller dominance · which side is actually transacting at the most-traded price, as a percentage skew. Neutral means the two sides are matched and the volume is telling you nothing about direction. Snapback reset · the terminal's oversold or overbought extreme, where price pushed through the second deviation band and reclaimed it. The bar count since the last one is how fresh the current structure is. Stability · a two-part check that the current reading has held long enough to be relied on. Zero of two means neither part has passed, which is every instrument on the page today. Convergence · how tightly the separate institutional cost lines have clustered. High convergence means several cohorts of large money paid roughly the same price, so the line underneath is thicker than usual. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and never published at all below 20 of them. It is in-sample, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Where a record field is distorted or faulty, this brief says so and does not print the number. Trend light and cushion · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks, and unproven means the sample is still being built. The cushion is how far the light is from changing, and a negative cushion means it has already changed against you.
Readings captured Monday 31 August 2026, 10:04–10:23 CEST, from the IVT v14 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. That is why every trigger here is a close and not a touch, and it matters more than usual this morning: four of the nine sized instruments sit inside one percent of their own cost line, where an intraday wick carries no information, and the highest-ranked short in the brief has a pre-market print on the wrong side of its line.
The four index captures run on broker cash CFD feeds and their regime panels resolve differently from the nineteen US-exchange captures. The exchange reading governs throughout this brief, as it has all week, and the difference is a symbol-resolution artefact rather than a second regime. Index levels will also differ from your own index or futures contract.
Records are in-sample, calculated over the same history the settings were chosen on, so they describe the past and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one. Globus Medical's expectancy field is reported as faulty rather than published. Entry windows are derived from the percentage distances the terminal publishes, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point; trigger levels are set at the nearest structural shelf and are ours, not the terminal's. No level here is meant to survive an earnings gap, and Broadcom reports on Wednesday.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.