The Composite Turned Negative. Five Setups Still Qualify.
Every layer of the framework has now dropped off except risk. Composite prints −1/9, the first negative reading in this cycle, and it is confirmed underneath: only 35.1% of stocks hold above their 50-day line and exactly 50.0% hold the 200-day, dead on the structural line. Three earnings gaps went the wrong way and locked their names out on distance alone, with Tesla now 23.83% below its own institutional anchor. What still qualifies is short and mostly defensive. The S&P is carrying a live oversold snapback with a 92% hit rate, Berkshire is compressed to 98% and sitting on its anchor, and Regal Rexnord is wound to maximum with a perfect record on the sample. Five names, no forced trades.
Date July 26, 2026
Session Weekend · Pre-Monday
Access Elite Members Only
RegimeSpeculative
Composite−1 / 9
LayersLqd ✗ · Eq ✗ · Rsk ✓
VIXNeutral (19)
Macro Bonus−1
LeaderRisk
Transition→ Stable
SPECULATIVE at Composite −1/9. This is the weakest print of the cycle and the first negative one. Bonds are off, equities are off, and the risk layer is the only thing still switched on, which is the definition of a market running on one leg. The internals agree rather than argue: net advancers finished at −22 on a 0.54 ratio, the McClellan oscillator deepened to −104.9 from −88.7, and the share of stocks above the 50-day fell again to 35.1%. The one number that still holds the longer structure together is the 200-day participation reading, and it is sitting at exactly 50.0%. Below that, the base itself is in question. Positioning follows from this directly: smaller size, no trend-chasing, and only setups where the entry gate is genuinely open. Everything on the board today is either a mean-reversion bounce or a defensive name.
Read this before you place anything. Every reading in this brief is taken from Friday's closing prints. Index levels here come from cash CFD and futures feeds, which do not match the cash index tick for tick, and two full days of news sit between these numbers and Monday's open. Before you commit to any level below, pull the live cash index price and check the pre-market and overnight futures. If the gap has already carried price through a trigger or an invalidation, the setup is done, not late. Do not chase a level that has already printed while you were asleep.
Schedule note. I am travelling in Spain for the next two weeks. Briefs will still run every session, but they will land after the US close or very early pre-market rather than at the usual time. The data, the board, and the levels do not change. Only the delivery window does. Set your alerts on the levels rather than waiting on the email.
Market News & Macro Context
Regime · Composite Goes NegativeFriday's brief read Composite +1/9. The weekend scan reads −1/9. That is the equities layer dropping off on top of a liquidity layer that has been off for weeks, leaving only risk assets carrying the tape. Macro Bonus is −1 across every instrument on the sheet. In practice this means the framework applies no tailwind to any long today, and every setup has to earn its place on its own signal quality rather than on the regime.
Earnings · Three Gaps, All Down, All Locked OutTesla, Alphabet and UiPath all reported and all gapped away from their institutional anchors. Tesla is the extreme case at 23.83% below its anchor after falling from roughly $380 to $313, which is the furthest any name on the sheet has been from its entry band in months. Alphabet sits 5.43% above its anchor after dropping from about $350 to $319, still extended on the upside despite the fall. UiPath gapped from roughly $12 to $10.85 and is the only one of the three that came back inside its band. Two of these are untouchable on distance. One is tradeable, and it is on the board below.
Breadth · The 200-Day LineThe advance-decline dashboard confirms the regime downgrade rather than contradicting it. Net breadth was −22 with only 26 advancers, the ratio was a weak 0.54, and the McClellan oscillator sank to −104.9. Short-term participation keeps thinning, with 35.1% above the 50-day. The structural reading is the one that matters now: 50.0% above the 200-day, down from 52.7% two sessions ago, sitting exactly on the halfway line. The Summation Index is still positive at +12,730 and the cumulative advance-decline line is still +2,142, so the base has not broken. It is simply as close to breaking as it has been.
Cross-Asset · A Stress Flag on the DailyOn the 4-hour instruments the bond-equity correlation reads normal at 0.17 to 0.21. On the Nasdaq daily it flags STRESS RECOVERY at 0.40, above the 0.35 threshold. When bonds and equities start moving together, the usual hedge stops working and both sides of a portfolio can fall at once. It is one timeframe on one instrument, so it is a caution rather than a call, but it is the second time this flag has appeared in a week.
This Week
• Monday · Open: the S&P snapback either confirms on a reclaim or fails. Check cash and futures first; the level is in The One Number below.
• Watch all week · The Liquidity layer. Bonds have been the missing switch for weeks. Nothing upgrades out of SPECULATIVE until TLT firms and Layer 1 turns back on.
• Watch all week · The 200-day participation reading at 50.0%. A move below it puts the structural base in play, and every long on this board gets smaller if that happens.
The oversold snapback signal is live and confirmed on two extra timeframes, and the entry gate is open rather than stretched. Friday's brief flagged this signal at 11 wins in 12; one more fire has since resolved, and it resolved the signal's way. It is still a counter-trend bounce against a bearish intraday read, so it needs the reclaim before it counts.
2
BRK.B
Long
🔒 Members
92% (26/30) · Conf 6 (3F) · Building 98%
The deepest track record on the whole board at thirty resolved signals, confirmed across three timeframes, with compression almost fully loaded and two bullish signals already fired underneath price. In a regime running on one leg, the defensive name with the longest sample is doing exactly what you would want it to do.
3
RRX
Long
🔒 Members
100% (14/16) · Conf 7 (2F) · COILED 100%
Maximum volatility compression and the highest confidence of any long that still has its gate open, with every one of its fourteen resolved signals having worked. The catch is a cluster of bearish institutional divergence sitting directly overhead, so this one needs to clear a specific line before the coil counts.
4
EDIT
Short
🔒 Members
83% (6/9) · Conf 3 (2F) · Signal 2 fired · Dev PASS
The only name on the sheet where a signal has actually confirmed at a qualifying deviation rather than merely being allowed to. Bias and structure both point down and the bearish signal is already on the tape. Low confidence and a shallow sample keep it fourth, and the share price means position size has to be small.
5
PATH
Short
🔒 Members
92% (12/12) · Conf 4 (1F) · gate open post-gap
Gapped down on earnings and, unlike Tesla and Alphabet, came back inside its entry band on the bounce. Twelve resolved signals, twelve counted, all pointing the same direction as the current read. Confirmed on one timeframe only, so it is a continuation trade rather than a fresh idea.
If you watch one: the S&P snapback. It is the only setup on the board where a high-hit-rate signal is live right now rather than waiting on a trigger, and it is the read that decides whether the rest of the index tape stabilises or keeps bleeding into a negative Composite. Twelve of its last thirteen resolved fires worked. The reclaim level and the floor are both below.
What the negative Composite actually changes. It does not mean sell everything. It means the framework has stopped paying you for being long, so every position has to stand on its own signal. Note what is on this board and what is not: the top three are a mean-reversion bounce, an insurance conglomerate, and an industrial. There is no megacap tech long anywhere on it, and the highest-confidence reading on the entire sheet, Nvidia at Conf 8 with 93% compression, is locked out on distance and cannot be taken. When the framework hands you a defensive board in a negative regime, the correct response is smaller size and fewer names, not a hunt for something more exciting.
Elite Members Content
Full Board, Execution Detail & The One Number
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Every reading in this brief is taken from Friday 24 July closing prints, captured 26 July. Index readings (SP500, NAS100, US30, RUSSELL) are sourced from cash CFD and futures feeds and will not match the cash index tick for tick; verify every level against your own instrument and check overnight futures and pre-market before acting. Two calendar days separate these prints from Monday's open and a weekend gap can carry price through any trigger or invalidation listed here. Today's scan reads Cantillon SPECULATIVE across the sheet at Composite −1/9, with liquidity and equity layers off and risk on, Macro Bonus −1 and VIX Neutral at 19. The NAS100 read is on the daily timeframe, not 4H, and flags a STRESS RECOVERY bond-equity correlation at 0.40; the 4H instruments read normal at 0.17 to 0.21. TSLA, GOOG and PATH all gapped on earnings. Several names show intraday Bias disagreeing with the underlying multi-bar Swing structure; verify the higher-timeframe trend on your own screen before acting on any level here. This brief is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past win rates do not guarantee future results.