The framework flipped hard between last night's close and this morning's open. DISTRIBUTION with the risk layer off is gone — the read is now INFLATIONARY PUMP with equities and risk assets both confirmed. Breadth backs it up: McClellan went from -24.2 to the mid-30s across every index scanned. The S&P is sitting at 95% volatility compression, the tightest reading in the scan. McDonald's has a live Signal 1 with a flawless 30-for-30 track record. This is a session to lean into, not fade.
INFLATIONARY PUMP — equities and risk assets running, bonds still weak. Composite is +6/9, up from +1/9 as of last night's close — the risk layer (crypto, high-beta names) flipped from off to confirmed overnight, and the macro bonus flipped from -1 to +1. Bonds remain the one layer not participating. VIX Layer reads 1.5, low fear, and the leader is equities. Breadth confirms the move: every index scanned this morning shows a CONFIRMING breadth regime with McClellan readings in the mid-30s, a sharp reversal from last night's -24.2. The percentage of names above their 50-day average moved from 63.5% to 67.1%, and above the 200-day from 56.8% to 65.9%. This is a broad, not narrow, improvement.
INFLATIONARY PUMP — equities and risk assets running, bonds weakening — and the framework only just confirmed it. Composite jumped from +1/9 to +6/9 between last night's close and this morning's open, the risk layer switched on, and breadth flipped from negative to broadly confirming in the same window. That combination — composite thrust plus breadth thrust, same session — is the kind of overnight reset that changes what was extended into what's now got room to run. The setups below were mostly built before the flip; they now have a tailwind they didn't have twelve hours ago. The number to watch: SPX volatility compression at 95% — the tightest reading in today's scan.
OVERNIGHT REGIME FLIP. Last night's scan across a dozen individual names — AppLovin, Broadcom, Nvidia, Shopify, Qualcomm, Regeneron and others — all read DISTRIBUTION with composite +1/9 and the risk layer off. This morning's index and crypto scan reads INFLATIONARY PUMP, composite +6/9, risk layer confirmed. That's the single largest overnight composite swing in recent sessions. It directly explains why MCD and CVX — both bullish setups captured before the flip — now carry a market-wide tailwind they didn't have at yesterday's close.
BREADTH THRUST CONFIRMS IT. The McClellan Oscillator sat at -24.2 last night even as the standalone breadth panel was already flagging "breadth improving vs price." By this morning it had turned to the mid-30s, positive, across every index and crypto proxy scanned. Advance/decline internals moved from 63.5% of names above the 50-day average to 67.1%, and from 56.8% above the 200-day to 65.9%. When composite and breadth move together, overnight, in the same direction — that's confirmation, not noise.
SCHEDULE NOTE. No brief tomorrow, Tuesday, July 7 — Jesper is traveling to France. Coverage resumes Wednesday, July 8.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete July 6 brief — the full instrument-by-instrument breakdown behind the overnight regime flip, SPX COILED 95%, MCD's flawless Signal 1, and the CVX/QCOM/PLUG backups.
The IVT framework reads institutional volume, compression, and VWAP deviation to identify high-probability setups before they move. SPX. MCD. CVX. Every session, structured.
Subscribe for Elite Access →thecantillonreport.substack.com · cantillonresearch.com