FULL RISK-OFF — Composite -5/9, all three layers off. But under the surface, the market is already recovering: McClellan Oscillator at +107, 66% of stocks above their 50-day average, A/D ratio 1.96. SD2L extreme signals have delivered on BTC, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq — all three indices triggered oversold snapback readings before bouncing. Deere is the standout: 100% win rate on 15 signals, Dev Filter open at +2.61%, bullish bias maintained through the risk-off flush. Vertex is the second name. Neither is a high-beta trade — they're what the framework still allows when the regime says wait.
FULL RISK-OFF — all three Cantillon layers are off (bonds, equities, and risk assets all bearish or below their institutional anchors), Composite −5/9, Macro Bonus −3. This is the most defensive reading the framework produces. VIX is in the neutral zone at 19–21, not spiking — fear is present but not capitulation-level. Bond-equity correlation is in stress recovery across every instrument in the scan, meaning the cross-asset system is still working through the damage from the recent drawdown. The transition reads stable — the regime is not actively deteriorating, but it has not started improving either.
What makes today unusual: the market's breadth is already recovering. The McClellan Oscillator reads +107 (strong positive breadth momentum), 66% of stocks are above their 50-day average, and the A/D ratio is 1.96 — nearly 2 advancers for every decliner. That internal recovery is happening while the macro regime label still says risk-off. Historically, breadth leading price recovery is the early signature of regime transitions — not a signal to add risk aggressively, but a signal to watch the layers closely for confirmation.
FULL RISK-OFF — the major cross-asset layers are all off, Composite −5/9, and every instrument in today's scan carries the same defensive regime label. That's the reality. What the regime doesn't show is what's underneath it: SD2L extreme signals (oversold snapback readings) have been delivered on BTC, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq in the last two weeks, and breadth has recovered sharply — McClellan at +107, two advancers for every decliner. Deere and Vertex are the two names maintaining bullish bias and open Dev Filters through this flush; Deere's win rate is 100% on 15 signals, Vertex 87% on 23. The number to watch: S&P 500 at ~$7,488 — that's the institutional VWAP anchor; if price reclaims it and Layer 2 (equities) flips on, the regime upgrades.
In FULL RISK-OFF, the framework narrows to a short list of setups that still qualify. Deere is at the top of that list.
Vertex is the second name. Healthcare defensive, 87% win rate, essentially at VWAP.
If you can only watch one: Deere — cleaner read, stronger statistical edge, and the deviation is in-range for the mid-session entry. Vertex is the lower-risk starter due to its proximity to VWAP.
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