FULL RISK-OFF — Composite −5/9, all three layers off, Macro Bonus −3. The regime has not changed. What has changed: the index-versus-stock split is widening. The four major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Dow) are all showing improving transitions. Every individual stock in today's scan — except OXY — is deteriorating. OXY is the outlier: bullish bias, active signal firing, 88% volatility compression (near-maximum), Dev Filter open at +2.14%, and a 73% win rate on 15 completed signals. The S&P 500's SD2L oversold snapback signal is now active across two timeframes. BTC is recovering — up to $63,086 from the $59K extremes. The framework is telling a precise story: wait at the regime level, watch OXY, track the SP500 bounce.
FULL RISK-OFF — all three Cantillon layers are off. Composite is −5/9 for the major indices and −7/9 for individual stocks (the stock-level base score has deteriorated a notch from yesterday). Macro Bonus −3. VIX is neutral at 20–21, not panicking. Bond-equity correlation remains in stress recovery territory across every instrument in the scan, readings of 0.48 to 0.61, meaning the cross-asset system is still repairing itself after the drawdown — not deteriorating further, but not healed.
The notable split today: index-level transitions are improving (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and Dow are all reading ↑ Improving), while individual stock transitions are deteriorating across the board. That divergence — indices recovering while their components weaken — is a warning that the current index bounce may be narrow. OXY is the single individual stock in today's scan maintaining a bullish bias with an open entry filter and an active signal. Every other name is bearish and deteriorating.
FULL RISK-OFF — the framework's most defensive regime label. All three cross-asset layers remain off, Composite −5/9 at the index level. The index transitions are improving: the S&P 500's SD2L oversold snapback signal (a reading that flags when price has pushed too far below its institutional anchor and a bounce is statistically likely) is now active and confirmed across two timeframes, with a perfect 83% win rate on 18 clean signals. The Russell 2000 fired its own SD2L just three bars ago. The indices are telling the recovery story. Individual stocks are telling a different one — every name in today's scan bar OXY is deteriorating, not improving. OXY stands alone: bullish, active signal firing, 88% volatility compression, and the entry filter is open at +2.14% deviation from its institutional VWAP anchor (~$55.92). The number to watch: S&P 500 VWAP at ~$7,458 — that is the level Layer 2 (equities) needs to reclaim for a regime upgrade.
OXY is the framework's primary setup today — it is the only individual stock in the scan with a live active signal, bullish bias, and open entry gate.
The S&P 500's SD2L oversold snapback signal is now active across two timeframes — the bounce from the June lows is live and statistically well-supported.
Counter-trend in FULL RISK-OFF — size down versus a trend-following setup. The perfect 18/18 track is notable; the regime context is the constraint.
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Complete instrument analysis, exact entry levels, execution logic, and the Cantillon Synthesis for every daily brief. The framework reads for every name in the scan, not just the headlines.
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