FULL RISK-ON — all three institutional layers bullishly aligned. Liquidity, equities, and risk assets are all ON simultaneously. The Composite is at +5/9 with a Macro Bonus of +4 on the major indices. The VIX is sitting at 16, inside the Low Fear zone, which gives the framework an additional confirmatory layer (VIX Layer 1 active). The bond-equity correlation remains in Stress Recovery at 0.56–0.64 — still healing from earlier dislocation, but moving in the right direction.
Breadth is constructive. The advance has participation behind it — 71.6% of stocks are above their 50-day average. The McClellan Oscillator at +59 confirms momentum without being in overbought territory. The Summation Index at +13,398 shows the cumulative underlying buying has been substantial since the lows.
FULL RISK-ON — equities leading, all three layers active, VIX at 16 and confirming. The framework's Composite at +5/9 with a Macro Bonus of +4 on the indices is the single cleanest regime picture we can have. Breadth confirms it: 71.6% of stocks above their 50-day average, McClellan at +59, and the A/D line advancing. The Transition reads Improving on most instruments, Stable on the major indices — meaning the regime is not under pressure. The cleanest long in the watchlist is BRK.B — Conf 8 across three timeframes, 90% win rate — with its exact entry band, trigger, and invalidation in The Board below. Do not short this market without an explicit, isolated framework read. Counter-trend short setups exist in several individual names, but they face a regime headwind that demands smaller size and wider stops.
Seven framework-qualified setups cleared the filter today — four longs and three shorts. Direction and historical edge are below. The exact entry band, trigger, and invalidation level for each are members-only — unlock them further down.
If you watch one: BRK.B — Conf 8 across three timeframes and a 90% win rate, the cleanest long on the board. 🔒 The four long entries and three short entries, with triggers and invalidations, unlock below.
JUNE FOMC DECISION (Wed June 17): The Fed decision tomorrow is the key macro event for this session. With FULL RISK-ON active and the S&P 500 near all-time highs at 7,574, the market is pricing a benign outcome. Any surprise hawkish language would stress the bond-equity correlation — watch Bd-Eq Corr (currently STRESS RECOVERY 0.56) as the leading tell. BRK.B and the defensive equity names would likely absorb it better than the high-volatility setups (ASTS, LUNR, HOOD).
EQUITIES AT ATH LEVELS: The Dow is at 51,781 and BRK.B is near its all-time high around $498. The S&P 500 has recovered the entire tariff-driven correction and is back to within ~1% of its prior peak. The Russell 2000 at 2,976 has not yet reclaimed ATH — watch for a catch-up move if the regime holds.
CRYPTO — DIVERGENCE REMAINS: Bitcoin's framework bias is BEARISH at $66,330 despite FULL RISK-ON in equities. This divergence (Cantillon Flow: FULL RISK-ON but BTC Swing Type: BEAR) is a regime anomaly. BTC's Dev Filter is OPEN at -0.42% from VWAP — the next signal qualifies. Watch for resolution either direction. Solana similarly has its Dev Filter in FAIL at +5.07% — too extended for new entries.
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