Market News — What Happened
The geopolitical backdrop that drove the Hormuz crisis and the FULL RISK-OFF regime of March 23 has partially eased. WTI crude has pulled back from its $115+ war premium highs to $88, neutralising the oil ★+3 signal. The dollar remains firm but is no longer in full crisis-bid mode. And inside that cooling macro backdrop, one signal is flashing bright: the crypto complex has completely disconnected from equities, with ETH and SOL both printing ★+3 while the entire US equity complex remains at maximum bearish.
Regime De-escalates — FULL RISK-OFF → SPECULATIVE · Risk Layer Turns On
The Cantillon Flow regime has lifted one step from FULL RISK-OFF to SPECULATIVE. The Risk asset layer (Layer 3) has switched from OFF to ON. This is not a regime reversal — Liquidity (Layer 1) and Equities (Layer 2) remain off — but it is a meaningful structural shift. Composite improved from −9/9 on March 23 to −6/9 today. Macro Bonus recovered from −5 to −1. The Hormuz standoff that drove the crisis bid appears to be de-escalating: WTI pulled from $99 to $88 and is now sitting at a neutral V13 score of 0. The emergency is not over, but the acute phase has passed. Regime remains SPECULATIVE — not risk-on. Observations only until the equity layer confirms.
ETH ★+3 and SOL ★+3 — Crypto Disconnects from Equity ★−3
The most important signal on today's board is the divergence between the crypto complex and equities. Ethereum upgraded to ★+3 at $2,181 and Solana upgraded to ★+3 at $92 — maximum bull scores. Bitcoin improved to ▲+1 at $71,242. Meanwhile, the entire US equity complex — SPX, NDQ, DOW, RUT, and all MAG7 names — remains at ★−3. This kind of cross-asset divergence is structurally rare. It tells us that risk appetite exists in digital assets specifically, driven by factors separate from the macro equity bear. The crypto complex is now acting as a leading indicator, not a follower. Whether equities confirm or crypto corrects back will define the next leg.
PLTR COILED 95% — Highest Confidence Score on the Board · Conf +5 (2F)
Palantir is the standout individual name on today's charts. COILED 95% compression — near maximum energy storage. Conf Score +5 (2F), the highest reading in today's entire dashboard. 480-bar bull swing intact. Price at ~$157–$160, approaching the previous day's high (_PDH) resistance. The Vol Comp reading of COILED 95% means institutional accumulation is happening at near-zero volatility — the coil is loaded. When COILED readings at this level resolve, they resolve fast. Bull case: break and hold of $160 PDH → target zone $167–$170. Bear case / invalidation: close below $155.41 (_PPL). Note: Cantillon Flow is FULL RISK-OFF on PLTR's individual chart (X/X/X) — this is an idiosyncratic setup, not a macro-supported long.
US Equities Remain ★−3 Across All Names — No Base Forming Yet
Despite the regime improvement, every major US equity is still at maximum bearish. SPX ★−3 at $6,617 with VWAP Dev −2.42%. NDQ ★−3 at $24,207 with VWAP Dev −2.16%. Russell 2000 ★−3 at $2,537, VWAP Dev −2.11%. Dow Jones ★−3 at $47,719, VWAP Dev −2.67%. AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, META, GOOGL — all ★−3. The 92% win-rate on SPX bear trades (13/13) demonstrates the framework's consistency in this regime. STRONG DIV signals are building across NAS and DOW — these are potential exhaustion reads — but divergence signals require confirmation. No equity longs until Stability reaches 1/2 minimum and composite turns from −6 toward −3 or better.
Gold Continues Distribution — ★−3 · VWAP Dev −8.49% · War Premium Unwinding
Gold remains at ★−3 at $4,557, down from the $5,400+ war premium highs. VWAP Dev −8.49% — a significant deviation below institutional cost basis. The 236-bar bear swing is active and confirmed. The Hormuz de-escalation is removing the geopolitical premium that drove gold to its highs. Multiple STRONG DIV signals are building at current levels, suggesting the sell exhaustion may be accumulating, but structurally the bear swing is intact and the framework says no longs until trend and AVWAP confirmation. WR awaiting results on open positions.
Market Structure & The Radar — What the Tape Is Saying
The V13 score table tells the structural story clearly. Three ★+3 readings: ETH, SOL, and USDCAD. The dollar-CAD pair at ★+3 is a risk-off dollar signal. But ETH and SOL at ★+3 are a risk-on crypto signal. The framework is reading a split environment. Below is the full radar snapshot.
The three-layer Cantillon Flow sequence today: Layer 1 (Liquidity/Dollar) = OFF. DXY ▲+1 at 99 — dollar is firm but not crisis-bid. Layer 2 (Equities) = OFF. All major indices ★−3 with no recovery signal. Layer 3 (Risk Assets) = ON. ETH ★+3, SOL ★+3, BTC ▲+1. The Risk layer turning on while Equity layer remains off is the defining structural condition of a SPECULATIVE regime. Digital assets are absorbing capital flows that have not yet reached traditional equities. This is the inflection zone — not a confirmed reversal.
| Asset |
Price |
V13 Score |
Change |
| ETHUSD | $2,181 | ★ +3 | ↑↑ ▼−1 → ★+3 · Full upgrade ⚡ |
| SOLUSDT | $92 | ★ +3 | ↑↑ ▼−1 → ★+3 · Full upgrade ⚡ |
| USDCAD | 1.43 | ★ +3 | → Dollar-CAD bid · Risk-off FX |
| BTCUSD | $71,242 | ▲ +1 | ↑ ▼−1 → ▲+1 · Recovering |
| EURUSD | 1.08 | ▲ +1 | ↑ 0 → ▲+1 · Modest improvement |
| AMD | $205 | ▲ +1 | → Holding relative strength |
| DXY | 99 | ▲ +1 | → Dollar firm · Not crisis-bid |
| USDJPY | 159 | — 0 | ↓ ★+3 → 0 · Risk-off carry easing |
| GBPUSD | 1.29 | — 0 | → Neutral |
| USOIL | $88 | — 0 | ↓ ★+3 → 0 · War premium removed |
| NFLX | $91 | ▼ −1 | → Consumer weakness |
| COIN | $181 | ▼ −1 | ↓ ★+3 → ▼−1 · Crypto proxy lag |
| AUDUSD | 0.63 | ▼ −1 | ↓ ★+3 → ▼−1 · Commodity AUD faded |
| MSTR | $136 | ▼ −2 | → BTC leverage drag · Lagging |
| XAUUSD | $4,556 | ★ −3 | → War premium unwind continues |
| SPX | $6,617 | ★ −3 | → 240-bar bear · 92% WR (13/13) |
| NDQ | $24,207 | ★ −3 | → Bear swing · STRONG DIV building |
| AAPL | $252 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
| NVDA | $175 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
| MSFT | $373 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
| TSLA | $383 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
| AMZN | $207 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
| META | $593 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
| GOOGL | $290 | ★ −3 | → Full distribution |
Chart Analysis — Instrument by Instrument
Bitcoin's structural picture is improving. The Conf Score upgraded from −3 to +2 — a significant swing in framework conviction — and the Cantillon Flow lifted from FULL RISK-OFF to SPECULATIVE with the Risk layer (Layer 3) now confirmed ON. Price is trading at $71,242, above the critical AVWAP zone around $70,000–$70,800. The 417-bar BEAR swing remains structurally intact at the macro level, but the near-term tape is building bullish divergences: multiple S2 signals have printed across the $69,000–$71,000 range over the past week, and an S3[2] has appeared at the $71k level. The BTC thesis today is divergence accumulation inside a bear swing — not a confirmed reversal, but the groundwork for one if $72,000–$73,000 AVWAP resistance can be reclaimed. The ETH/SOL ★+3 upgrade is the leading signal: the altcoin complex is confirming crypto-specific risk appetite that has not yet fully transferred to Bitcoin. Key support: $70,070 (PWL cluster). Key resistance: $72,000 AVWAP zone. A close above $72k with Stability moving to 1/2 would be the first structural reversal signal in the IVT framework.
SUPPORT $70,070 · $68,000 PWL
AVWAP RESISTANCE $72,000
REGIME FLIP LEVEL $73,000+ · Stability 1/2
SWING 417-bar BEAR
The Nasdaq 100 remains fully bearish at ★−3 with a 240-bar bear swing and VWAP Dev −2.16% below cost basis. Vol Comp at Expanded 74% means the institutional move has partially decompressed but retains further downside energy. The significant development today is the cluster of STRONG DIV signals building in the $23,600–$24,000 zone — these are exhaustion reads that suggest selling momentum is decelerating. However, divergence signals without structural confirmation (Stability ≥1/2, AVWAP reclaim) are not trade signals — they are observations. The bear case remains dominant: price is trading below all key moving averages, Cantillon Flow is SPECULATIVE with Equity layer OFF, and every major Nasdaq constituent is at ★−3. The 67% WR on the bear framework (6/6 correct) confirms the directional read. No longs until $25,000 AVWAP is reclaimed and Stability flips.
SUPPORT $24,000 · $23,600 PWL
AVWAP RESISTANCE $25,000–$25,300
REGIME FLIP $25,300 · Stability 1/2
STRONG DIV ZONE $23,600–$24,000
PLTR is the top setup on today's board. COILED 95% compression — near-maximum energy storage inside a confirmed 480-bar BULL swing. Conf Score +5 (2F) is the highest reading across every instrument in today's dashboard. VWAP Dev +6.88% confirms price is trading significantly above institutional cost basis, indicating strong underlying demand. The setup is textbook: a bullish long-swing instrument that has compressed to 95% COILED while holding above AVWAP. Price is approaching the _PDH (previous day's high) resistance at $160.50 — this is the trigger level. If price clears and closes above $160.50 with volume expansion, the COILED 95% compression resolves higher. Target zone on release: $167–$170 based on prior distribution range from the January high. Critical caveat: Cantillon Flow on PLTR's individual chart reads FULL RISK-OFF (X/X/X layers all off) and Macro Bonus −8. This is an idiosyncratic setup that works against the macro backdrop — it requires discipline and a tight stop. Invalidation: close below $155.41 (_PPL). Stop zone: $154.79.
TRIGGER $160.50 _PDH break
TARGET 1 $167–$170
STOP / INVALIDATION $154.79–$155.41
AVWAP $157.82 (current)
The Russell 2000 continues to act as the leading indicator for the equity complex. At 272 bars, it carries the most mature bear swing among the major indices. Conf Score at 0 (neutral on this session) with an open trade still live (T1:6 Stop:1 Open:1). The S3[2] signal printed recently at the $2,590 zone — a short-signal at structural resistance. Price is trading at $2,537, sitting in the purple demand zone (~$2,520–$2,537). Watch Russell first for any regime reversal signal — historically, Stability moving to 1/2 on RUT before the large-cap indices is the earliest macro reversal read in this cycle. No flip confirmation yet. VWAP Dev −2.11% confirms continued institutional distribution pressure.
SUPPORT $2,520 · $2,400 PWL
RESISTANCE $2,590 (S3 trigger) · $2,660 AVWAP
LEADING SIGNAL Stability 1/2 → first reversal tell
OPEN POSITION T1:6 Stop:1 Open:1
The SPX framework call has been one of the most consistent reads of 2026: 13 out of 13 correct at 92% win rate. The 240-bar bear swing and VWAP Dev −2.42% confirm price remains below institutional cost basis. Cantillon Flow is SPECULATIVE with the Equity layer (Layer 2) still OFF — no structural support for equity longs at the index level. Vol Comp Expanded 72% suggests the majority of the down-move's energy has released, but 28% of expansion remains available. STRONG DIV signals are beginning to cluster at the $6,440–$6,560 zone, similar to NAS — signs that selling exhaustion may be building. The framework's instruction: observe the divergence, do not act on it without structure confirmation. Bear case: failure to hold $6,560 opens the $6,440 PWL gap fill. Bull case: reclaim of $6,785 AVWAP with Stability 1/2 is the minimum for a regime re-evaluation.
SUPPORT $6,560 · $6,440 PWL
AVWAP RESISTANCE $6,785
REGIME EVAL LEVEL $6,785 + Stability 1/2
WR 92% — 13/13 correct
The Dow Jones at $47,719 carries the youngest bear swing of the major indices at 184 bars, and the most expanded Vol Comp reading at 87% — meaning the down-move has released most of its energy. The STRONG DIV cluster at the $46,500 zone is notable: multiple consecutive divergence signals suggest the exhaustion phase may be near. The purple demand zone ($46,500–$46,750) is where the framework identified the first meaningful buyer activity in the current down leg. 184-bar swing age combined with 87% expansion and a STRONG DIV cluster are the prerequisites for a base — but the base has not confirmed. VWAP Dev −2.67% confirms distribution still dominates. No longs until $47,500 reclaim with structural confirmation.
SUPPORT $46,500 STRONG DIV zone · $45,750 PWL
RESISTANCE $47,500 · $48,250 AVWAP
EXPANSION LEFT 13% remaining (Exp 87%)
WTI Crude has undergone a significant structural change over the past week. From ★+3 at $99+ during the Hormuz crisis to a neutral 0 score at $88 today — a $11 war premium has been removed. The 411-bar bull swing remains structurally intact and VWAP Dev is still positive at +1.11%, confirming price is above institutional cost basis. Conf Score +2 (1F) — constructive. Oil is now in consolidation mode after the crisis-driven surge and subsequent pullback. The $92–$96 purple demand zone has acted as resistance on the reversal. WTI is sitting just below this zone at $88, at the AVWAP line. This is the decision zone: hold above $88 and the 411-bar bull trend stays valid; break below $86 structural support and the Hormuz premium unwind continues toward the $82 floor. The V13 neutral score (0) reflects exactly this ambiguity — neither buyers nor sellers have structural dominance at these levels.
AVWAP SUPPORT $88 zone
KEY SUPPORT $85–$86 structural
RESISTANCE $92–$96 demand zone · $100 psychological
BULL SWING 411 bars intact
Gold's war premium unwind has been one of the defining moves of March 2026. From $5,400+ at the Hormuz crisis peak to $4,557 today — a $843 distribution in under two weeks. The 236-bar bear swing is active and confirmed. VWAP Dev −8.49% means gold is trading significantly below institutional cost basis, but this deviation alone is not a buy signal in a confirmed bear swing. The constructive observation today is the accumulating STRONG DIV signal cluster at the $4,400–$4,557 range — multiple consecutive divergence readings suggest smart-money accumulation may be beginning at these levels. Vol Comp Expanded 62% means 38% of expansion energy remains. The bear case is not exhausted. Watch: if STRONG DIV signals increase in frequency and Stability ticks to 1/2, this could be the early formation of a base ahead of a structural recovery. Bull case for gold structural recovery: reclaim of the $4,800–$4,900 AVWAP zone. That requires a regime catalyst — either macro (Fed pivot signal) or geopolitical (Hormuz re-escalation).
SUPPORT $4,400 · $4,335 PWL structural floor
AVWAP RESISTANCE $4,800–$4,900
STRONG DIV ZONE $4,400–$4,560
BULL SWING INTACT 236-bar BEAR overlay on longer bull
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The IVT Read — March 25, 2026 — Speculative Regime · Crypto Divergence · PLTR Setup
Today's dashboard is defined by a single structural fact: the Cantillon Flow regime has de-escalated from FULL RISK-OFF to SPECULATIVE, and the crypto complex is the leading instrument of that recovery. ETH ★+3, SOL ★+3, BTC ▲+1. Meanwhile, every major US equity index remains at ★−3. This cross-asset divergence — digital assets leading, traditional equities lagging — is rare and structurally significant. It tells you that risk appetite exists in the market, but it is flowing into crypto first, not equities. Whether traditional equities follow crypto higher, or crypto corrects back to equity levels, will define the next directional leg across the entire complex.
The macro backdrop supports this cautious framing. Composite −6/9 is improved from −9/9 two days ago, but it is still deeply negative. Macro Bonus −1 has recovered from −5 but remains a drag. The Liquidity and Equity layers of the Cantillon Flow sequence are both still OFF. A SPECULATIVE regime is not a regime for aggressive equity longs — it is a regime where idiosyncratic setups work (PLTR COILED 95%), where leading assets confirm the direction change (ETH/SOL ★+3), and where the framework waits for structural confirmation before committing capital at the index level.
The top setup today is PLTR. COILED 95% compression with Conf Score +5 is the cleanest signal in the dashboard. 480-bar bull swing. VWAP Dev +6.88% confirming institutional demand. $160.50 PDH is the trigger. When COILED readings at 95% release inside a confirmed bull swing, the move is typically fast. Set the alert, wait for the trigger, respect the stop at $154.79. The regime doesn't need to be perfect for an individual name with this kind of compression to work. Watch for the $160.50 break.
This brief is published by Cantillon Research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. All V13 scores, VWAP deviations, and regime readings are proprietary indicators and are provided for analytical commentary only. Past performance of indicator signals is not indicative of future results. Trading financial markets involves substantial risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence.