Yesterday's Toyota short died at the get-out this brief published for it, the reclaim call that went out in the members chat is now working on the overnight print, and Toyota reads long this morning for the first time in a week. Behind it the money-flowing leg switched off overnight and the tailwind for longs collapsed from +5 to +1. Three names have finally qualified after a week where none did. The two clean setups are Ford short and CECO long, and Ford's cost line is the number that decides the page.
Futures pricing put the odds of a Federal Reserve hike on 16 September at 66% at Monday's close, against a coin flip a week earlier, after Kevin Warsh said better than expected inflation readings do not tell him underlying trends have meaningfully improved. The ten-year sits near 4.78%. Monday's tape took it without breaking: the S&P closed 7,686.14, down 0.33%, the Dow gave up 373.67 points to 53,185.90, and August still finished up 2.6% with a fifth straight winning month on the Dow. A market that spent the year pricing cuts is now pricing the opposite. The bond leg of every cross-asset model is where that lands first, and this morning it landed.
Money flowing turned off overnight, which is what an inflationary pump is: stocks and risk appetite still carry the cycle, bonds have stopped helping, and the tailwind that paid longs all week has gone from +5 to +1, so full size now belongs only where the light is green and the record is deep. One structural caveat, and it is the same feed split as yesterday running the other way. The eleven US-exchange charts print the reading in the bar above. The four index CFDs print a stronger +5 with money flowing still on, and the single London-listed chart in the scan is still printing last week's full risk-on at +7. The exchange feeds govern, as they have all week, and the gap between them is a symbol-resolution artefact rather than three opinions.
The strip runs when it argues with the regime. This morning the panel's own banner reads breadth recovery, because 44 names in the scan universe closed up on a session when the S&P closed down 0.33%. Every measure inside it except the summation index is lower than Friday.
| Reading | Monday close | Friday close | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advancing versus declining | +14 net, 44 advancing | +18 net, 46 advancing | Weaker |
| Advance-decline ratio | 1.47 | 1.64 | Weaker |
| Advance-decline line | +1,102 | not published | Cumulative |
| Above the 50-day line | 59.5% | 62.2% | Weaker |
| Above the 200-day line | 68.9% | 70.3% | Weaker |
| McClellan oscillator | +25.9 | +28.6 | Weaker |
| Summation index | +11,628 | +11,603 | Still climbing |
Advancers went from 46 to 44 and the ratio from 1.64 to 1.47. The fifty-day column gave up another 2.7 points to 59.5% and the two-hundred-day 1.4 to 68.9%, while the summation index added 25 and kept climbing. Third session of narrowing. The banner is right that breadth beat price on Monday and wrong that anything improved, and that gap is why only three names below carry a full size.
Seven names out of sixteen carry a size this morning. Three are full and four are half. The change from yesterday is that three instruments have actually qualified, meaning the cross printed inside the window rather than the window merely being open, after a full week where not one did. Every trigger is a four-hour close in the trade's direction, never a touch, and the get-out is always a close back through the cost line. The other nine instruments sit in Watch and Avoid below, and four of them are the indices.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | What the terminal reads | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F Ford Motor | Short | 🔒 Members | Highest confirmation in the scan and the only coiled spring the terminal has flagged, wound directly on the cost line where the entry and the get-out are the same price.Record +.09R on 129 signals · qualified, the cross printed inside the window · eleven readings across three timeframes · coiled spring at 84% · convergence active at 96% · light AMBER, fading | Half |
| 2 | CECO CECO Environmental | Long | 🔒 Members | Best publishable record on the page and the only qualified name carrying a green light. It read short yesterday. The direction has turned again and the volume still has not followed it.Record +.17R on 120 signals, the highest here · qualified, the cross printed inside the window · light GREEN, fading · sellers still dominant by 22% · 14 crossings on 16.7-bar swings | Full |
| 3 | BCE BCE Inc | Short | 🔒 Members | Deepest record in the brief and the range is now wound to the maximum on the downside. It has crept toward its own get-out since yesterday without ever triggering.Record +.16R on 144 signals, the deepest here · window open, not yet qualified · compression coiled down at 100% · ten readings across two timeframes · light GREEN, fading | Full |
| 4 | CMI Cummins | Long | 🔒 Members | Steadiest structure on the page by a distance and the closest thing to sitting on its own cost line in the whole scan. The overnight print is the problem, and it is below the get-out.Record +.08R on 136 signals · qualified, the cross printed inside the window · five readings across three timeframes · trending, 2 crossings on 83.3-bar swings · light AMBER, holding | Half |
| 5 | DG Dollar General | Long | 🔒 Members | Yesterday's short, flipped back. Third side this instrument has taken in four sessions, and the only light in the brief that is improving rather than fading.Record +.14R on 86 signals · window open, not yet qualified · compression coiled at 76% · nine readings across two timeframes · light GREEN, improving | Full |
| 6 | TM Toyota Motor | Long | 🔒 Members | Bias has flipped and the position from the members chat is onside. The overnight print is far enough above the window that fresh capital is chasing rather than entering, which is why this is a hold and not a new row.Record +.15R on 118 signals · window open, not yet qualified · six readings across three timeframes · sellers still dominant by 17% · light GREEN, holding | Hold |
| 7 | JBS JBS N.V. | Short | 🔒 Members | Qualified on the same test the top of this table passed, with convergence running at 96%. Its record has 7 finished signals of the 20 this brief requires before any rate is published, so no number is quoted and the size rests on confirmation alone.Record not published, 7 resolved of 20 needed, 8 fired, 1 open · qualified, the cross printed inside the window · nine readings across three timeframes · convergence active at 96% · compression building at 96% | Half |
If you watch one, watch Ford. Nothing else in the scan carries eleven readings across three timeframes, and nothing else has a spring the terminal is willing to label. CECO holds the better record, +.17R against +.09R, and CECO is the safer size. But Ford is the only name where the compression, the confirmation and the cost line all land on the same price at the same time, and that is the setup that pays when it goes.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete September 1, 2026 brief: all seven sized rows with their windows, triggers and get-outs, Toyota's reclaim level and the price that ends the position, Ford's coiled spring and the two closes that settle it, the Cummins overnight print sitting under its own get-out, the nine instruments in Watch and Avoid, and all sixteen terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it, and that distance is what "deviation" means. Sell near it and you are selling where they bought. Sell far below it and you are handing them the profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. The width comes from the instrument's own volatility tier: two percent for indices and large caps, three percent for mid-range names, three to five for the high-volatility list. Open means you are inside it and waiting on the cross. Qualified means the cross has already printed inside it. Shut means the move has run and you wait for a pullback or a fresh coil. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close, in the trade's direction, never a touch. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Building means it is loading. Coiled means it is nearly full, and coiled spring is the terminal's own label for the tightest version. High compression means the next move should be a big one, says nothing about direction, and never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better, and two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. Buyer or seller dominance · which side is actually transacting at the most-traded price, as a percentage skew. Neutral means the two sides are matched and the volume is telling you nothing about direction. Snapback reset · the terminal's oversold or overbought extreme, where price pushed through the second deviation band and reclaimed it. The bar count since the last one is how fresh the current structure is. Stability · a two-part check that the current reading has held long enough to be relied on. Zero of two means neither part has passed, which is every instrument on the page today. Convergence · how tightly the separate institutional cost lines have clustered. High convergence means several cohorts of large money paid roughly the same price, so the line underneath is thicker than usual. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and never published at all below 20 of them. It is in-sample, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Where a record field is distorted or faulty, this brief says so and does not print the number. Trend light and cushion · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks, and unproven means the sample is still being built. The cushion is how far the light is from changing, and a negative cushion means it has already changed against you.
Readings captured Tuesday 1 September 2026, 07:15–07:38 CEST, from the IVT v14 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. That is why every trigger here is a close and not a touch, and it matters more than usual this morning: four of the seven sized instruments sit inside one percent of their own cost line, where an intraday wick carries no information, and two carry an overnight print on the opposite side of a level that decides the position.
The four index captures run on broker cash CFD feeds and the one London-listed capture runs on its own exchange feed, and all five resolve the regime panel differently from the eleven US-exchange captures. The exchange reading governs throughout this brief, as it has all week, and the difference is a symbol-resolution artefact rather than a second or third regime. Index levels will also differ from your own index or futures contract.
Records are in-sample, calculated over the same history the settings were chosen on, so they describe the past and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals and the sample size is printed beside every one, which is why JBS and Circle carry raw counts instead of numbers and why the Battery Metals record, which reports an error rather than a value, is not printed at all. Entry windows are derived from the percentage distances the terminal publishes, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point; trigger levels are set at the nearest structural shelf and are ours, not the terminal's. No level here is meant to survive an earnings gap, and Broadcom reports on Wednesday.
The Toyota position referenced at the top of this brief was called in the members chat on the reclaim, not in yesterday's published board, where Toyota was a half-size short that was closed by its own get-out. Both are stated so the record reads straight.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.