Ford and CECO both walked into their entry windows overnight, the first qualified setups on this page after a session where all ten windows sat open and empty. Ford prints confirmation of 10 across four timeframes, the highest reading anywhere in the scan, under the terminal’s own coiled-spring label. Astera Labs, yesterday’s headline coil, ran clean out the other side of its window without ever triggering. Breadth improved in all seven columns while the regime went the other way, and the S&P’s own cost line is the number that settles the page.
Futures price a quarter-point hike at the September 16 meeting at roughly 64%, against about 36% before Jackson Hole, where Kevin Warsh said it is hard to call policy restrictive when you look at the economy. The long end moved with him. Japan’s ten-year touched 3% for the first time since 1996, the German ten-year reached its highest since 2011, the UK ten-year its highest since 2008, and the US thirty-year sits at 5.27% with the ten-year above 4.81%. ADP then put August private payrolls at 38,000 against a 47,000 estimate, the slowest since January, and the market repriced toward a hike anyway. That is the discount rate underneath every long on this page. Friday’s payroll print lands straight into it.
The strength score is +0 of 10.5, down from +3 yesterday and +5 last week, and the cycle now runs on risk appetite by itself: money flow off, stocks off, risk on. Nothing on this page takes a size from the regime this morning. It takes a size from its own light or it takes none. One structural caveat, the same feed split that has run all week. The ten US-exchange equity charts print the reading in the bar above. The four index CFDs print full risk-off at −1 of 10.5 on a −2 tailwind, with the silver feed at −2, and their bond-versus-stock reading is 0.48 against 0.43 here. The exchange feeds govern, as they have all week, and the gap between them is a symbol-resolution artefact rather than two opinions.
The strip runs when it argues with the regime. Yesterday the banner read recovery while every internal underneath it collapsed, so the strip argued with itself. This morning the banner reads recovery and all seven columns moved with it, which puts breadth and the regime score on opposite sides of the same session.
| Reading | Wednesday close | Tuesday close | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advancing versus declining | −8 net, 33 advancing | −34 net, 20 advancing | Repaired |
| Advance-decline ratio | 0.80 | 0.37 | Better |
| Advance-decline line | +1,040 | +988 | Rebuilding |
| Above the 50-day line | 44.6% | 27.0% | +17.6 points |
| Above the 200-day line | 51.4% | 35.1% | +16.3 points |
| McClellan oscillator | −27.4 | −51.2 | Halved |
| Summation index | +11,545 | +11,499 | Turned back up |
Seven columns, seven moves the right way. The two that decide anything are the moving-average columns. Roughly a third of the 74-name universe fell through both its own lines on Tuesday, about half of that came back on Wednesday, and the two-hundred-day column is back above 50%. The summation index, which broke a three-session climb on Tuesday, turned back up. Advancers are still outnumbered at −8 net, so read this as repair rather than participation. It is a universe that stopped coming apart underneath while the headline score went to zero, and that split is the whole reason two names could cross their windows on a morning the regime says to sit still.
Four names out of sixteen carry a size this morning, two at full and two at half. The change that matters against yesterday is that two of them qualified, where all ten windows sat open and empty on Wednesday. Ford and CECO have both crossed. The other two are open and still waiting on the cross. Every trigger below is a four-hour close in the trade’s direction, never a touch, and the get-out is always a close back through the cost line. The remaining twelve sit in Watch and Avoid, and four of those are the indices.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | What the terminal reads | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F Ford Motor | Long | 🔒 Members | Highest confirmation in the scan by a distance, on the terminal’s own coiled-spring label and its top signal tier. It has already qualified, and the institutional cost lines behind it are clustered rather than scattered. The amber light is what holds this to a half.Record +.09R on 129 signals · qualified, window crossed · ten readings across four timeframes · compression coiled at 95%, terminal label COILED SPRING · convergence active at 84% · light AMBER, fading, 9.1-point cushion | Half |
| 2 | CECO CECO Environmental | Long | 🔒 Members | Best publishable record on the page and one of only two green lights. It has qualified. Read the direction note before you size it, because this is the third direction in three sessions and yesterday’s published short is part of that history.Record +.17R on 120 signals, the highest here · qualified, window crossed · six readings across three timeframes · compression building at 100% · sellers dominant by 22% · light GREEN, fading, 10.7-point cushion | Full |
| 3 | BCE BCE Inc | Short | 🔒 Members | The only wound coil pointing down, with four timeframes agreeing and the second-best record in the brief behind it. Window open, cross still pending, which is the one thing separating it from the two rows above.Record +.16R on 144 signals · window open, not yet qualified · seven readings across four timeframes · compression coiled down at 97% · light GREEN, fading | Full |
| 4 | IP International Paper | Short | 🔒 Members | Tightest cluster of institutional cost lines anywhere in the scan and the longest clean trend reading on the page, only two crossings in 83 bars a side. Nothing is wound underneath it, which is why the light is amber and the size is half.Record +.05R on 160 signals · window open, not yet qualified · eight readings across two timeframes · convergence active at 86%, the highest here · compression expanded at 11% · light AMBER, fading, 4.5-point cushion | Half |
If you watch one, watch Ford. CECO holds the better record and the full size, and on most mornings CECO is the row you take. Ford wins today on structure. It is the only instrument in the scan carrying the coiled-spring label and the top signal tier at the same time, and large money has clustered behind it while CECO’s cost lines have not clustered at all. One name has institutions agreeing on a price. The other has a good record and a chart that has changed its mind twice this week.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete September 3, 2026 brief: all four sized rows with their windows, triggers and get-outs, the cost line under Ford’s coiled spring and the close that starts it, CECO’s level and the direction note behind two flips in three sessions, the two shorts still waiting on their cross, the S&P cost line that governs every index row, the twelve instruments in Watch and Avoid, and all sixteen terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it, and that distance is what "deviation" means. Buy near it and you are buying where they bought. Buy far above it and you are handing them the profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. The width comes from the instrument's own volatility tier: two percent for indices and large caps, three percent for mid-range names, three to five for the high-volatility list. Open means you are inside it and waiting on the cross. Qualified means the cross has already printed inside it. Shut means the move has run and you wait for a pullback or a fresh coil. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close, in the trade's direction, never a touch. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Building means it is loading. Coiled means it is nearly full, and coiled spring is the terminal's own label for the tightest version. High compression means the next move should be a big one, says nothing about direction, and never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better, and two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. A negative score means the readings disagree with the stated bias. Buyer or seller dominance · which side is actually transacting at the most-traded price, as a percentage skew. Neutral means the two sides are matched and the volume is telling you nothing about direction. Snapback reset · the terminal's oversold or overbought extreme, where price pushed through the second deviation band and reclaimed it. The bar count since the last one is how fresh the current structure is. Stability · a two-part check that the current reading has held long enough to be relied on. Zero of two means neither part has passed, which is every instrument on the page today. Convergence · how tightly the separate institutional cost lines have clustered. High convergence means several cohorts of large money paid roughly the same price, so the line underneath is thicker than usual. Diverged means they did not, and there is no thick line to lean on. Anchor hold · how many bars price spends on each side of the cost line before crossing back, and how many times it has crossed. Trending means it picks a side and stays. Choppy means it does not, and a choppy anchor is why a name can reverse its published direction inside a week. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and never published at all below 20 of them. It is in-sample, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Trend light and cushion · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks, and unproven means the sample is still being built. The cushion is how far the light is from changing, and a negative cushion means it has already changed against you.
Readings captured Thursday 3 September 2026, 07:14–07:34 CEST, from the IVT v14 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. That is why every trigger here is a close and not a touch. Two of the four sized rows have already crossed into their windows and two have not, so half this page is conditional on a bar that has not printed yet.
The four index captures, the silver feed and the crypto perpetual run on broker and exchange feeds that resolve the regime panel differently from the ten US-exchange equity captures, printing full risk-off against speculative on the stock charts. The exchange reading governs throughout this brief, as it has all week, and the difference is a symbol-resolution artefact rather than two regimes. Index levels will also differ from your own index or futures contract.
Two names on this board have reversed direction recently and both are stated here so the record reads straight. Ford was published as a short on Monday 1 September and is published long today at the top of the board. CECO was published as a half-size short in yesterday's board and as a long on Monday. The terminal has turned it back up this morning and it is published long here. Three directions in three sessions is not a claim of accuracy, it is what a cost line crossed sixteen times a side produces. Ford has an anchor crossed twenty-four times a side. Both anchor-hold readings are printed in their rows, because a choppy anchor is the mechanical reason a published direction reverses inside a week, and anyone sizing these rows should weigh that against the confirmation score rather than reading the score alone.
Records are in-sample, calculated over the same history the settings were chosen on, so they describe the past and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals and the sample size is printed beside every one, which is why Astera Labs and JBS carry raw counts instead of numbers. Entry windows are derived from the percentage distances the terminal publishes, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point; trigger levels are set at the nearest structural shelf and are ours, not the terminal's.
Breadth columns compare Wednesday's close against Tuesday's across the same 74-name scan universe. The advance-decline line and summation index are cumulative series and are not comparable to the single-session columns beside them.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.