All four US indices failed the deviation filter in the same capture, from 2.79% on the Nasdaq to 5.48% on the Dow. Not one of them is buyable on location. Meanwhile McDonald's sits 0.2% off its anchor with confidence 8 across three timeframes and a 90% record on 30 of 30 resolved signals, the deepest complete sample in this scan. Gilead carries the highest confidence score here at 9 and the only coiled equity on the sheet. Bitcoin is at maximum compression, 100%, with its breadth panel confirming at +7/8 and the divergence flag clean. Single names have gates. Indices have none.
The Dow and the S&P both closed Friday at fresh record highs, and global equities are trading near their own record after Asian investors put money back into AI names. What got them there was a weak labour print read the friendly way: payrolls fell 23,000 and unemployment ticked down to 4.1%, which the tape took as proof the Fed will not raise in September. That is the frame that matters now. Prediction markets put the odds of a September cut at roughly 2%, so nobody is trading a cut. They are trading the absence of a hike. July CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30 Eastern and PPI on Thursday, and a hot number takes the one thing holding this rally up.
INFLATIONARY PUMP at +6/9 with a +1 tailwind means equities and risk assets are on, bonds are off, and a long book is being scored with the framework rather than against it. The caveat sits where it has sat for a week now, on the index feeds: same +6/9, but a bond-equity correlation of STRESS RECOVERY 0.49, well through the 0.35 line where bonds stop hedging equities, while the single-name feeds read a normal 0.33. Two markets, one screen. Own the names, not the indices.
Three panels, three answers. The Bitcoin feed reads CONFIRMING at +7/8 with the divergence flag Clean, the strongest internal reading on any chart in this scan. The single-name feeds read CONFIRMING at +3/8 with divergence ACTIVE. The index feeds read NEUTRAL at −1/8. And the separate universe scan is still flying its own warning.
| Metric | Universe scan | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Divergence flag | ACTIVE | Price rising, participation lagging. Fourth session. |
| A/D net | +14 on 44 advancing | Up from +8 on 41 Friday. |
| A/D ratio | 1.47 | Up from 1.24. |
| McClellan | −74.7 | Still negative, improved from −88.7. |
| A/D line | +1,622 | Down from +1,662. |
| Summation | +11,587 | Down from +11,662. Fourth day lower. |
| % above 50-day | 59.5% | Up from 55.4%. |
| % above 200-day | 60.8% | Up from 59.5%. |
Five internals up, two down, and the divergence flag still lit. Good enough to own individual names on their own signals. Not good enough to buy an index that is 4.72% above its anchor.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry (dev · price) | Edge (WR · Conf · Comp) | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCD | Long | 🔒 Members | 90% on 30 of 30 · Conf 8 (3F) · Building 83% | Equity Daily, standard |
| 2 | GILD | Long | 🔒 Members | 100% on 6 of 11 · Conf 9 (1F) · COILED 78% | Mid-Range, standard |
| 3 | BTCUSD | Long | 🔒 Members | 63% on 8 of 10 · Conf 7 (1F) · COILED 100% | Equity Daily, half size |
| 4 | UBER | Long | 🔒 Members | 75% on 4 of 6 · Conf 7 (2F) · Conv ACTIVE 94% | Mid-Range, standard |
| 5 | OUST | Short | 🔒 Members | 63% on 8 of 8 · Conf 9 (3F) · Signal 2 live | High-Vol, reduce 30–40% |
| 6 | CRSP | Long | 🔒 Members | 85% on 20 of 21 · Conf 6 (2F) · Expanded 35% | High-Vol, reduce 30% |
| 7 | MCHP | Long | 🔒 Members | 71% on 14 of 14 · Conf 6 (2F) · Expanded 31% | High-Vol, reduce 30–40% |
| 8 | BMI | Short | 🔒 Members | 81% on 16 of 16 · Conf 6 (1F) · Expanded 44% | High-Vol, reduce 30–40% |
| 9 | ACHR | Short | 🔒 Members | 71% on 7 of 8 · Conf 6 (2F) · Expanded 44% | High-Vol, half size |
| 10 | DIS | Long | 🔒 Members | 92% on 12 of 12 · Conf 4 (2F) · Expanded 0% | Equity Daily, standard |
| 11 | RIVN | Long | 🔒 Members | 83% on 24 of 28 · Conf 4 (1F) · Building 91% | High-Vol, reduce 30–40% |
| 12 | BG | Short | 🔒 Members | 75% on 4 of 5 · Conf 5 (1F) · Dev PASS | Mid-Range, half size |
| 13 | DG | Long | 🔒 Members | 83% on 6 of 7 · Conf 4 (1F) · Building 100% | Mid-Range, half size |
If you watch one: McDonald's. It wins on the argument that settles most of them, which is sample depth. Thirty signals fired, thirty resolved, 90% hit rate, thirteen-bar average hold. Gilead has the higher confidence score and the only coiled equity here, but only six of its eleven signals have settled, so a 100% headline is not yet a number you can size against. Bitcoin has the tighter coil at 100% and the cleanest breadth panel, and a 63% record on eight of ten. McDonald's is the one with proof behind it. Its entry band, the level it has to close through, and the price that ends it are all below.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete August 10 brief: the McDonald's anchor at 0.2% deviation and the exact close that turns it live, the Gilead band under the only coiled equity on the sheet, the Bitcoin level sitting on 100% compression, the Ouster short with the only passing gate among the bearish names, the overnight gap check on every row with the two tickers whose gates are already shut at the bell, plus the annotated IVT terminal chart for all twenty four instruments scanned.
Dev · percentage distance from the institutional VWAP anchor, the volume-weighted price institutions actually paid. Dev Filter · PASS means price is close enough to that anchor that the entry is priced well and the reading adds a confluence factor; OPEN means inside the band; FAIL means too extended for a clean new entry. Gate shuts at · the price where the deviation band is exceeded and no new entry qualifies. Conf (XF) · institutional confidence score confirmed across X timeframes. Higher is better. COILED / Building % · volatility compression. Higher means a larger expected move when it releases. COILED is maximum; Building is partial; Expanded means no coil is loaded. None of them state direction. Conv / Convergence · how tightly the institutional anchors are stacked. ACTIVE with a high percentage means a real cluster of institutional cost basis underneath; Diverged means no cluster. WR (n of m) · win rate across m signals that have fully resolved out of those fired. Open signals are excluded, which is why n of m matters as much as the percentage. Signal tiers · S1 is the base crossover; Signal 2 adds two independent confirming factors; Signal 3 adds four; Signal 4 adds six plus regime alignment. Snapback (SD2L) · the oversold reversal signal fired two standard deviations below the anchor. Bar count is how long ago it fired. Composite · the sum of the nine active Cantillon layers, maximum +9. Macro bonus · the regime's tailwind or headwind applied to every trade. Bd-Eq Corr · 60-bar rolling correlation of bond and equity returns; above 0.35 the two are treated as one risk and bonds stop hedging equities. Tiers · High-Volatility strict (size down 30% to 40%), Mid-Range (+5pp band), Equity Daily (+10pp band).