Three names carry a green trend filter with the gate open: Coeur at confidence 9 across three timeframes with institutional convergence live at 76%, Nutrien as the only Dev Filter PASS on a green light, and Dollar General short. Six more sit inside a few cents of their gate shutting, and all four US indices are already locked out. Silver's anchor: $65.57.
July retail sales fell 0.6%, the steepest monthly drop in more than a year and a full reversal of June's +0.2%. Michigan consumer sentiment then dropped 8% in the August preliminary read after two straight months of improvement, and only 8% of households now expect their income to outpace inflation, down ten points since late 2024. This lands on a tape that printed a record S&P high on Thursday. Spending and sentiment are both rolling over while the index sits at an all-time high, and that gap is the most important thing in front of traders this week.
DISTRIBUTION at −1/10.5 with equities the only layer on means every long here carries the regime by itself, so the −1 macro bonus works against the entry and long positions get sized down before anything else is considered. The structural caveat is the correlation: bonds and equities now move together at 0.50, well through the 0.35 line where bonds stop hedging stocks, so a bond selloff and an equity selloff arrive in the same session with no second asset to cushion it.
The strip runs today because it contradicts the regime. Breadth reads CONFIRMING at +7 of 8 while the Cantillon composite reads −1. Participation is broad and the cross-asset structure is defensive, at the same time.
| Metric | Reading | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Breadth regime | CONFIRMING | Participation is backing the price move, not lagging it. |
| Score | +7 / 8 | Seven of eight measures positive. |
| Trend | +2 | Improving, not merely positive. |
| % above 50-day | 69.4% [+1] | Roughly seven names in ten above the short trend line. |
| % above 200-day | 72.8% [+2] | Strongest single reading in the strip. |
| McClellan | 40.9 [+1] | Up from 18.2 on the Sunday-evening pass. |
| Divergence | Clean | No breadth divergence flagged against price. |
Breadth is a stock-level measure and the composite is a cross-asset one, so the two disagreeing is exactly what a late, broad, bond-unsupported advance looks like. Keep taking single-name signals on their own merit. That is not a reason to buy an index sitting more than twice its band above cost basis.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Levels | Edge (Exp · Conf · Comp) | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CDE | Long | 🔒 Members | Conf 9 (3F), highest here · Conv ACTIVE 76% · Expanded 32% · +.12R on 132 resolved · Fit GREEN improving | High-Vol strict, full size |
| 2 | NTR | Long | 🔒 Members | Dev Filter PASS, the only one on a green light · Tier S1 · Building 87% · +1.35R on 45 resolved · Fit GREEN, 45.7pt cushion | Mid-Range, full size |
| 3 | DG | Short | 🔒 Members | Conf 2 (2F) · Expanded 70% · +.14R on 94 resolved · Fit GREEN improving, 10.5pt cushion | Mid-Range, full size |
| 4 | TM | Short | 🔒 Members | COILED 98% · Conf 5 (1F) · +.06R on 106 resolved · Anchor TRENDING, 125 bars per side on one crossing, the only one here that holds | Equity Daily, half size |
| 5 | WMT | Short | 🔒 Members | Conf 2 (1F) · Expanded 52% · +.04R on 174 resolved · Fit AMBER fading · Reports Thursday | Equity Daily, half size |
| 6 | EDIT | Long | 🔒 Members | COILED 95% · Conf 3 (1F) · +.03R on 36 resolved · Fit AMBER improving · Swing structure reads BEAR against it | High-Vol strict, half size |
| 7 | XAGUSD | Wait | 🔒 Members | COILED 83% sitting on the anchor · Conf 5 (2F) · +.00R on 297 resolved, the deepest record here · Fit RED improving | None until volume picks a side |
If you watch one: Coeur Mining. It is the only instrument in this scan carrying institutional convergence live rather than diverged, and its confidence reading is both the highest score and the widest timeframe agreement anywhere here. Nutrien is the runner-up and it owns the better headline statistic. That number sits on 45 resolved signals against Coeur's 132, so depth of evidence takes the top slot rather than size of number.
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Dev · percentage distance from the institutional VWAP anchor, the volume-weighted price institutions actually paid. Dev Filter · PASS means price is close enough to that anchor that the entry is priced well and the reading adds a confluence factor; OPEN means inside the band but the anchor cross has not registered yet, which the terminal marks as next cross qualifies; FAIL means too extended for a clean new entry. Gate shuts at · the price where the deviation band is exceeded and no new entry qualifies. Conf (XF) · institutional confidence score confirmed across X timeframes. Higher is better, and more timeframes is better at the same score. COILED / Building / Expanded % · volatility compression. COILED is maximum, Building is partial, Expanded means no coil is loaded. Higher means a larger expected move when it releases. None of them state direction, and none of them override the deviation filter. Conv / Convergence · independent institutional anchors stacked in the same zone, reported as a strength percentage. ACTIVE means a real cluster of cost basis is sitting there now; Diverged means no cluster, and the percentage is how far apart they are. Expectancy (R) · average result per signal in units of risk, where a stop is always exactly −1.00R, published with the resolved-signal count. The record is computed over the same history the parameters were chosen on, so treat it as in-sample rather than as forward performance. UNPROVEN · fewer than 20 resolved signals, so the terminal refuses to print an expectancy and there is nothing to size against. Fit · the trend and chop filter. GREEN means full size, AMBER halves the position, RED means no new entries whatever the setup looks like. The cushion is how far the light sits from flipping, and whether it is improving, holding or fading. Anchor Hold · how many bars the anchor holds per side before flipping, with the crossing count. TRENDING means it carries a swing; CHOPPY means it does not hold long enough to carry the position it would open. Snapback (SD2L) · the oversold reversal signal fired two standard deviations below the anchor. The bar count is how long ago it fired. VP Delta · net buy or sell dominance in the volume profile at the point of control. Buy dominant above +15%, sell dominant below −15%, neutral between. Swing Type · the multi-bar structural direction. It can disagree with the intraday bias, and when it does the trade is being taken against the larger trend and is sized down. Composite · the sum of the active Cantillon layers on the v14 scale, maximum +10.5. Macro bonus · the regime's tailwind or headwind applied to every trade. Bd-Eq Corr · 60-bar rolling correlation of bond and equity returns; above 0.35 the two are treated as one risk and bonds stop hedging equities. Tiers · High-Volatility strict, Mid-Range (+5pp band), Equity Daily (+10pp band). The tier sets the base position size before any other adjustment.