Allegro carries the best record in this scan and the only green trend filter anywhere in it, and it still does not qualify. That leaves Ford, with the widest room to its gate of anything tradeable, and Editas, at maximum compression on the highest confidence score. All four US indices are locked out again. The number that decides the day: $44.22.
The 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.31%, the highest in nineteen years. Brent above $88 with the US and Iran still deadlocked over the Strait of Hormuz is the trigger, and it is not the whole story. The long end is now pricing risks a rate cut cannot fix, which is why the front end can argue about easing while thirty-year money keeps repricing higher. Equities have to fund themselves against that discount rate. Every long position in this brief is being taken into a rising one.
DISTRIBUTION at +2/10.5 with equities the only layer on means every long here is carrying the regime by itself, and the −1 macro bonus is subtracted from the entry before anything else is considered, so long size starts halved and the trend filter halves it again. The structural caveat is the correlation, and it is the same story as the yield: bonds and equities move together at 0.46 on the single-name pass and 0.66 on the index feeds, both well through the 0.35 line where bonds stop hedging stocks. A bond selloff and an equity selloff now arrive in the same session with nothing to cushion either one.
The strip runs because it contradicts everything below it. Participation is healthy on every measure. Not one index can be bought.
| Metric | Reading | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| A/D net | +26 | Fifty advancers against twenty-four decliners. |
| A/D ratio | 2.08 | Two names up for every one down. |
| A/D line | +1,388 | Cumulative line still climbing. |
| McClellan | +1.7 | Barely positive. The weakest number in the strip. |
| Summation | +11,393 | Long-term breadth trend intact. |
| % above 50-day | 67.6% | Two names in three above the short trend line. |
| % above 200-day | 63.5% | Structural participation holding. |
The terminal runs its own eight-factor breadth composite on a narrower universe and it reads NEUTRAL at +2 of 8 with trend −1 and McClellan at −3.1. That is a universe difference, not a signal difference. Take single names on their own merit and keep taking them. None of this makes an index buyable at more than twice its band above cost basis.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Levels | Edge (Exp · Conf · Comp) | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F | Long | 🔒 Members | Gate open with the most room here · Conf 4 (2F) · Building 100% · +.09R on 129 resolved · Fit AMBER fading, 9.1pt cushion | Mid-Range, half size |
| 2 | EDIT | Long | 🔒 Members | COILED 100%, the only maximum coil here · Conf 7 (1F), tied highest · +.03R on 36 resolved · Fit AMBER improving · Swing structure reads BEAR against it | High-Vol strict, half size |
| 3 | MCHP | Long | 🔒 Members | +.08R on 154 resolved, the deepest record in this scan · Building 90% · Conf 2 (1F), the weakest confidence here · Fit AMBER fading, 6.6pt cushion | High-Vol strict, half size |
| 4 | IONQ | Short | 🔒 Members | Conf 6 (3F), the widest timeframe agreement anywhere here · Anchor TRENDING, 50 bars per side on 4 crossings, the only one that holds · Record UNPROVEN, n=17 of 20 needed | Alert only until three more resolve |
| 5 | AMPS | Wait | 🔒 Members | Closest to cost basis in the scan · COILED 94% · Conf 3 (1F) · Bond-equity correlation reads Normal 0.19 here, the only instrument out of stress · Fit UNAVAILABLE, record error | None until the record reloads |
If you watch one: Ford. Its gate has more than two percentage points of room before it shuts, the widest of anything tradeable in this scan, and the record behind it runs 129 resolved signals. Editas owns the maximum coil and the higher confidence score. Its gate shuts almost immediately above the print, so a confirming close disqualifies the entry in the same bar it arrives. Room to act beats quality of setup when the setup expires on confirmation.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete August 18, 2026 brief: Ford's band and trigger, the Editas gate, Microchip's entry, the IonQ short level, and the four index gates that have to be reclaimed before any of them can be bought.
The regime read, the ranked board and the market update land in your inbox every session. Levels stay with members.
Dev · percentage distance from the institutional VWAP anchor, the volume-weighted price institutions actually paid. Dev Filter · PASS means price is close enough to that anchor that the entry is priced well and the reading adds a confluence factor; OPEN means inside the band but the anchor cross has not registered yet, which the terminal marks as next cross qualifies; FAIL means too extended for a clean new entry. Gate shuts at · the price where the deviation band is exceeded and no new entry qualifies. Conf (XF) · institutional confidence score confirmed across X timeframes. Higher is better, and more timeframes is better at the same score. COILED / Building / Expanded % · volatility compression. COILED is maximum, Building is partial, Expanded means no coil is loaded. Higher means a larger expected move when it releases. None of them state direction, and none of them override the deviation filter. Conv / Convergence · independent institutional anchors stacked in the same zone, reported as a strength percentage. ACTIVE means a real cluster of cost basis is sitting there now; Diverged means no cluster, and the percentage is how far apart they are. Expectancy (R) · average result per signal in units of risk, where a stop is always exactly −1.00R, published with the resolved-signal count. The record is computed over the same history the parameters were chosen on, so treat it as in-sample rather than as forward performance. UNPROVEN · fewer than 20 resolved signals, so the terminal refuses to print an expectancy and there is nothing to size against. Fit · the trend and chop filter. GREEN means full size, AMBER halves the position, RED means no new entries whatever the setup looks like. The cushion is how far the light sits from flipping, and whether it is improving, holding or fading. Anchor Hold · how many bars the anchor holds per side before flipping, with the crossing count. TRENDING means it carries a swing; CHOPPY means it does not hold long enough to carry the position it would open. Snapback (SD2L) · the oversold reversal signal fired two standard deviations below the anchor. The bar count is how long ago it fired. VP Delta · net buy or sell dominance in the volume profile at the point of control. Buy dominant above +15%, sell dominant below −15%, neutral between. Swing Type · the multi-bar structural direction. It can disagree with the intraday bias, and when it does the trade is being taken against the larger trend and is sized down. Composite · the sum of the active Cantillon layers on the v14 scale, maximum +10.5. Macro bonus · the regime's tailwind or headwind applied to every trade. Bd-Eq Corr · 60-bar rolling correlation of bond and equity returns; above 0.35 the two are treated as one risk and bonds stop hedging equities. Tiers · High-Volatility strict, Mid-Range (+5pp band), Equity Daily (+10pp band). The tier sets the base position size before any other adjustment.