Northrop prints Conf 9 across three timeframes, institutional convergence active at 85%, and the only buy-dominant volume profile in the scan. Its trend filter reads RED, so the size is zero. That leaves Disney, the only PASS on the deviation filter and the only live signal tier here, carrying the deepest positive record in this scan at 129 resolved signals. The regime downgraded between the US close and this capture. The number that decides the day sits on the Nasdaq anchor.
The July FOMC minutes land today at 2pm Eastern, and three officials dissented at that meeting for a 25 basis point hike rather than a hold. The 30-year Treasury closed at 5.31% and the 10-year at 4.72%, the long bond's highest since 2007, while the market still prices roughly a 65% chance of no move in September. That combination is a term premium and supply problem, not a policy one. It reprices every long-duration asset lower whatever the minutes turn out to say, and it is the discount rate against which every long in this brief has to fund itself.
All three layers off with a −2 macro bonus means two full points come out of every long before the setup is scored, which is why nothing on the long side sizes above half and most of it sizes at zero. The structural caveat is that the capture does not agree with itself. The 24-hour index feeds taken at 08:43 CEST return FULL RISK-OFF with the macro bonus at −2 and correlation at 0.37, the US cash names captured minutes later still return SPECULATIVE at +1/10.5 with the risk layer on and the bonus at zero, and Porsche on the XETR open returns INFLATIONARY PUMP at +4/10.5 with both equities and risk on. The downgrade is currently a property of the instruments that trade overnight. It has not reached the cash names, and that gap is the thing today either closes or reverses.
The scanner universe closed Tuesday with McClellan at +4.4. The terminal's broad-tape composite on the same date reads −89 with a washout flag. The strip runs because those two numbers cannot both be describing the same market.
| Metric | Reading | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| A/D net | +16 | Forty-five advancers against twenty-nine decliners. |
| A/D ratio | 1.55 | Three names up for every two down. |
| A/D line | +1,376 | Cumulative line still climbing. |
| McClellan | +4.4 | Barely positive. Weakest number in the strip. |
| Summation | +11,304 | Long-term trend intact. |
| % above 50-day | 60.8% | Three names in five above the short trend line. |
| % above 200-day | 63.5% | Structural participation holding. |
The terminal runs an eight-factor composite on a wider universe and returns NEUTRAL at −2 of 8 with trend −2, McClellan −89 carrying a washout flag, Summation −1,937 and falling, against 59.6% above the 50-day and 68.1% above the 200-day. Both passes agree on the structural line and disagree violently on the short-term oscillator. Trade the names that clear their own filters and size them off the regime, not off either breadth number.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Levels | Edge (Exp · Conf · Filter) | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DIS | Short | 🔒 Members | Dev Filter PASS, the only one on this board · Signal Tier 2, the only live tier · Conf 8 (3F) · +.08R on 129 resolved, the deepest record here · Building 71% · Fit AMBER holding, 6.4pt cushion | Equity Daily, half size |
| 2 | NOC | Long | 🔒 Members | Conf 9 (3F), highest anywhere in this scan · Convergence ACTIVE at 85% · VP Delta +18% buy dominant, the only one · Building 82% · Anchor TRENDING, 83.3 bars per side on 2 crossings · 94 resolved · Fit RED improving | None until Fit flips |
| 3 | P911 | Long | 🔒 Members | COILED 97% · Conf 7 (1F) · Composite +4/10.5 on its own feed, the strongest regime read in the scan · .00R on 27 resolved · Anchor CHOPPY, 15 crossings · Fit RED improving, 0.1pt cushion | None until Fit flips |
| 4 | EDIT | Long | 🔒 Members | COILED 100%, the only maximum coil here · Conf 6 (1F) · +.03R on 36 resolved · Fit AMBER improving · Dev Filter FAIL · Swing structure reads BEAR against it · Anchor CHOPPY, 15 crossings | High-Vol strict, half size on reset only |
If you watch one: Disney. It holds the only PASS on the deviation filter anywhere in this scan, the only signal tier the terminal has printed, and a positive record over 129 resolved signals, which is more than the other three rows combined. Northrop has the better setup on every structural measure and the trend filter will not let you take it. A short you can size beats a long you cannot.
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Dev · percentage distance from the institutional VWAP anchor, the volume-weighted price institutions actually paid. Dev Filter · PASS means price is close enough to that anchor that the entry is priced well and the reading adds a confluence factor; OPEN means inside the band but the anchor cross has not registered yet, which the terminal marks as next cross qualifies; FAIL means too extended for a clean new entry. Gate shuts at · the price where the deviation band is exceeded and no new entry qualifies. Conf (XF) · institutional confidence score confirmed across X timeframes. Higher is better, and more timeframes is better at the same score. Signal Tier · the terminal only prints a tier when a setup has fully qualified; most sessions print none. COILED / Building / Expanded % · volatility compression. COILED is maximum, Building is partial, Expanded means no coil is loaded. Higher means a larger expected move when it releases. None of them state direction, and none of them override the deviation filter. Conv / Convergence · independent institutional anchors stacked in the same zone, reported as a strength percentage. ACTIVE means a real cluster of cost basis is sitting there now; Diverged means no cluster, and the percentage is how far apart they are. Expectancy (R) · average result per signal in units of risk, where a stop is always exactly −1.00R, published with the resolved-signal count. The record is computed over the same history the parameters were chosen on, so treat it as in-sample rather than as forward performance. Nothing is published as a percentage below 20 resolved signals. Fit · the trend and chop filter. GREEN means full size, AMBER halves the position, RED means no new entries whatever the setup looks like. The cushion is how far the light sits from flipping, and whether it is improving, holding or fading. Anchor Hold · how many bars the anchor holds per side before flipping, with the crossing count. TRENDING means it carries a swing; CHOPPY means it does not hold long enough to carry the position it would open. Snapback (SD2L) · the oversold reversal signal fired two standard deviations below the anchor. The bar count is how long ago it fired. VP Delta · net buy or sell dominance in the volume profile at the point of control. Buy dominant above +15%, sell dominant below −15%, neutral between. Swing Type · the multi-bar structural direction. It can disagree with the intraday bias, and when it does the trade is being taken against the larger trend and is sized down. Composite · the sum of the active Cantillon layers on the v14 scale, maximum +10.5. Macro bonus · the regime's tailwind or headwind applied to every trade before the setup is scored. Bd-Eq Corr · 60-bar rolling correlation of bond and equity returns; above 0.35 the two are treated as one risk and bonds stop hedging equities. Cantillon Flow · the cross-asset state. FULL RISK-OFF means none of the three layers is on. SPECULATIVE means the risk layer alone is on. INFLATIONARY PUMP means equities and risk hold up while bonds weaken, which supports upside on a less stable base. Tiers · High-Volatility strict, Mid-Range (+5pp band), Equity Daily (+10pp band). The tier sets the base position size before any other adjustment.