Friday Free Brief · July 10, 2026 ★ Free for All

XOM Reclaims Its AVWAP Overnight. Composite Holds +5/9. Nine Setups Loaded.

Exxon's overnight session pushed back above its AVWAP anchor near $137.60 — the widest multi-timeframe confirmation in today's entire scan — while International Paper and Meta round out a nine-name board under a stable +5/9 Composite. Full board, top three execution blocks, and the one level that matters most below.

RegimeInflationary Pump
Composite+5 / 9
LayersLqd ✗ · Eq ✓ · Rsk ✓
VIX1.5 · Low Fear (17)
Macro Bonus+1
LeaderEquities

INFLATIONARY PUMP holds for another session — equities and risk both confirmed, bonds still the missing layer, Composite steady at +5/9. Breadth reads NEUTRAL (+1/8) across the single-name scan but DIVERGING (−3/8) on the index/CFD panel — the strength this morning is in individual names, not yet the indices. The one structural caveat: nothing here upgrades the regime further without bonds joining.

The Board · Every Tradeable Setup, Ranked
#TickerDirEntry (dev · price)TriggerInvalidationEdge (WR · Conf · Comp)Size
1XOMLongPASS −0.18% · ~$137.60 at AVWAPAlready above overnight; 4H close holding the reclaim4H close < $137.00100% (4/8) · Conf 8 (3F) · COILED 87%Mid +5pp · small sample
2METALongPASS +0.17% · ~$630–632Signal 2 already active; hold above $6304H close < $625100% (15/15) · Conf 5 (2F)Mid +5pp · standard
3IPLongOPEN +0.19% · ~$37.10–37.25COILED breakout; close > $37.20Loses $36.90 AVWAP73% (11/12) · Conf 9 (2F) — highest raw score in scan · COILED 87%Mid +5pp · standard
4TEMLongPASS +0.89% · ~$60.95Signal 2 active; hold above $614H close < $5975% (12/14) · Conf 3 (2F)High-Vol strict · reduced
5AWKLongOPEN +0.65% · ~$129.70Next signal qualifies on compression toward anchor4H close < $128.5096% (24/24) — cleanest WR in the book · Conf 7 (2F)Mid +5pp · standard
6TSLALongOPEN +1.09% · ~$402.20Convergence ACTIVE 88%; hold above $4024H close < $390Conf 7 (2F) · Expanded 30%High-Vol strict · reduced
7WTRGLongOPEN +0.45% · ~$38.35Fresh S3/S2 prints off the lows; hold above $384H close < $37.5092% (25/27) · Conf 4 (1F)Mid +5pp · standard
8MCDShortOPEN −0.62% · ~$278.20S3 bear print at the highs; close < $277Reclaims $278.2093% (30/30) — flawless sample · Conf 4 (2F)Standard +10pp
9VSTShortOPEN −1.19% · ~$159.90Convergence ACTIVE 85%; close < $158Reclaims $159.9080% (5/6) · Conf 5 (1F)High-Vol strict · reduced

If you watch one: XOM — the widest multi-timeframe confirmation of anything scanned today, and the overnight session already did the hard part by trading back above the anchor.

Execution Detail · Top Setups
XOM — ExxonMobil · LONG · Primary
Entry
$137.30–137.60 · Dev Filter PASS at −0.18% — sitting right on the AVWAP anchor
Trigger
Overnight session already traded above the anchor; needs a 4H close to hold the reclaim
Invalidation
4H close back below $137.00 — the terminal's own bias tag still reads bearish off the marginal dev reading, so this only stays a long while the reclaim holds
Edge
100% WR (4/8, small sample) · Conf 8 (3F) — widest multi-timeframe confirmation in today's scan · COILED 87%
Size
Mid tier (+5pp). Standard size — small completed-trade sample, no scaling up yet.
META — Meta Platforms · LONG · Secondary
Entry
$630–632 · Dev Filter PASS +0.17%, the tightest read on the board
Trigger
Signal 2 already active — no further confirmation needed, hold above $630
Invalidation
4H close below $625
Edge
100% WR (15/15) · Conf 5 (2F)
Size
Mid tier (+5pp). Standard size — high-confidence sample.
IP — International Paper · LONG · Third
Entry
$37.10–37.25 · Dev Filter OPEN +0.19%
Trigger
COILED at 87% compression — breakout close above $37.20 confirms
Invalidation
Loses the $36.90 AVWAP floor
Edge
73% WR (11/12) · Conf 9 (2F) — the single highest raw confidence score in today's scan · COILED 87%
Size
Mid tier (+5pp). Standard size, watch for the release.
The One Number
Write this down
XOM — $137.60
Everything else in the book is secondary to this line. Conf 8 (3F) is the widest multi-timeframe confirmation of anything scanned today, compression is COILED at 87%, and the overnight session already traded above it. The terminal's own bias tag still reads bearish because the last close sat 0.18% below the line — that's a rounding distance, not a breakdown. Hold above $137.60 on a 4H close and this is the highest-quality long in the book. Lose $137.00 and the reclaim failed; stand aside.
Watch / Avoid
Legend

Dev — % distance from institutional AVWAP anchor. PASS / OPEN = within entry band, qualifies; FAIL = too extended to enter cleanly.  Conf (XF) — institutional confidence confirmed across X timeframes.  COILED / Building % — volatility compression; higher = larger expected move on release. COILED = maximum.  WR (n/m) — win rate across m completed signals (500-bar window).  SD2L — oversold-snapback signal at the lower deviation band.  Tiers — High-Vol strict (size −30–40%), Mid (+5pp band), Equity-daily (+10pp band).

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For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. All levels and signals are produced by the Institutional Volume Terminal (IVT) framework. Past win rates do not guarantee future results. Manage risk independently. © 2026 Cantillon Research · thecantillonreport.substack.com