Monday Elite Brief · July 13, 2026 ★ Elite Members
Composite Falls to +3/9 as Distribution Spreads. Every AVWAP Reclaim on the Board Remains Unconfirmed.
The framework can't agree with itself this morning. Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 CFD have all flipped to DISTRIBUTION — risk off, Composite down to +3/9. Solana and the Dow are still confirming the old regime, INFLATIONARY PUMP at +5/9, in the exact same scan. Breadth is holding underneath the split — Summation +13,284, 59.5% of names above the 200-day — but the McClellan Oscillator has slipped to -23.6. Meanwhile five separate charts are sitting on top of AVWAP reclaims that haven't actually closed yet. Bottom line for today: wait for confirmation, don't chase the wick.
Regime Snapshot
Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 CFD: Composite +3/9. Bonds (Layer 1) OFF · Equities (Layer 2) ON · Risk (Layer 3) OFF · Macro Bonus -1 · Transition ↓ Deteriorating.
Solana and the Dow, same morning: Composite +5/9. Bonds OFF · Equities ON · Risk ON · Macro Bonus +1 · Transition → Stable.
Bottom line: the framework can't agree with itself this morning. Four instruments say risk-off, two say risk-on — same scan window, same framework, opposite conclusions. That's not a session to lean hard in either direction. Breadth is still fine underneath the split: A/D Net +22 (48 advancers leading), A/D Ratio 1.85, A/D Line +2,482, Summation +13,284 — all positive, and 59.5% of names sit above their 200-day average. The one crack is the McClellan Oscillator at -23.6 — short-term momentum has rolled over even though the longer-term structure hasn't broken. VIX Layer reads Low Fear (1.5), so this isn't a fear-driven flip. Leader: Equities, everywhere.
The One-Paragraph Read
Wait before committing either direction today — the framework is split down the middle. Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 CFD have flipped to DISTRIBUTION (Composite +3/9, deteriorating), but Solana and the Dow are still in INFLATIONARY PUMP (+5/9, stable) in the exact same scan. Watch Russell 2000's 2,997 VWAP anchor first — a close back above it says DISTRIBUTION is losing steam, a break of 2,940 confirms it's real.
Today's Best Setups
If you can only watch one setup today, make it CEVA — it's the only trade in this brief that's already live and clean, not waiting on a trigger.
A fresh oversold-snapback reclaim, bias and structure both bullish with no divergence — the cleanest structural read among the individual names, and price is already trading above the level that confirms it.
Entry opens when
Dev Filter OPEN at +1.06% above the VWAP anchor (~$45.06 — price is already above it, at $45.54); SD2L reclaim fired 9 bars ago, the freshest signal anywhere in today's scan
Edge
75% WR — 16 of the last 17 setups like this have paid off · Conf 6 (2F, confirmed across two timeframes) · bias and structure both bullish
Trigger
4H close holding above $45.06
The highest-confidence read in the entire brief, but it needs a fresh breakdown before it's tradable — don't short the current print.
Entry opens when
Already at the edge — Dev Filter OPEN at -2.97% below the VWAP anchor (~$252.85), right at the limit of the suggested 2.0-3.0% band for this tier, no room left before the filter fails
Signal status
Reads from Friday's close — verify live price before acting given the weekend gap
Edge
85% WR — 13 of the last 14 setups like this have paid off · Conf 8 (2F) — highest confidence score in today's entire scan
Trigger
4H close below Friday's range, confirming continuation rather than a bounce back toward VWAP
Invalidation
Reclaim of $252.85 VWAP anchor
If you can only watch one: CEVA — it's live now, aligned, and doesn't require waiting for a breakdown to confirm.
Key Warning — Unconfirmed AVWAP crosses: Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, the Dow and CF Industries are all sitting on top of an AVWAP reclaim (price crossing back through its anchored volume-weighted price) that hasn't actually closed through yet. None of these are trades — they're wicks, not closes. Wait for a full bar to close through the level before treating any of them as confirmed. Chasing one of these today is exactly how you get trapped when the regime itself is split.
Elite Members Content
Full Instrument Analysis, Decision Trees & Framework Synthesis
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete July 13 brief — the DISTRIBUTION/INFLATIONARY PUMP regime split in full, CEVA's live setup, Amazon's scan-high Confidence Score, every unconfirmed AVWAP cross on the board, all 13 instruments, and the Cantillon Synthesis.
This brief blends two scan sessions: individual equities (Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, CEVA, CF Industries, Deere, Enphase Energy, CRISPR Therapeutics) reflect Friday, July 10's close, while the core indices and crypto (Bitcoin, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, S&P 500 CFD, Dow, Solana) reflect this morning's ~06:30 UTC pre-market read. Composite and Cantillon Flow differ across that split and have not converged — verify live price and regime against every level and trigger above before acting. This brief is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice.