Friday Free Brief · July 17, 2026 ★ Free for All

International Paper Carries the Scan's Top Score. The Indices Are Quietly Distributing.

Cooler-than-expected CPI and a post-earnings selloff in the chip complex set the tone into the weekend, while Intuitive Surgical gapped 11% overnight on a Q2 beat. Underneath it, International Paper carries the single highest Confidence Score in today's entire scan at Conf 11, and thirteen setups clear the board — even as the four major indices quietly flip to Distribution.

RegimeInflationary Pump

Composite+3 / 9

LayersLqd ✗ · Eq ✓ · Rsk ✓

VIX1 · Low Fear (16)

Macro Bonus+1

LeaderEquities

INFLATIONARY PUMP holds on the single-name scan, Composite +3/9 — equities and risk both confirmed, bonds still the missing layer. The crack: SPX, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and the Dow have all flipped to Cantillon DISTRIBUTION at Composite 0/9, with bond-equity correlation breaking down into a Stress Recovery read (0.56 to 0.67) instead of the normal 0.25. Thursday's close showed breadth still constructive — 54.1% of names above the 50-day, 56.8% above the 200-day — so this is index-level thinning under the surface, not a confirmed break yet. The one number that matters: whether International Paper's Conf 11 read confirms before the index layer drags it down.

Market News

CPI · FedJune CPI fell 0.4% on the month, annual rate down to 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. Core flat, 2.6% year over year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed back on any "mission accomplished" read Tuesday — a September hike is still the base case, not a cut. Oil and Treasury yields rose Friday on Gulf tension, the early drag on equities.

ChipsTaiwan Semi posted a 77% annual earnings gain and still fell more than 4% on spending concerns, dragging the Nasdaq and pressuring chip-sensitive names — Microchip's -0.41% day traces directly to this.

Earnings — Intuitive SurgicalQ2 non-GAAP EPS $2.80, beat by $0.30. Revenue $2.89B, up 18.4% year over year. Procedure volume up roughly 16%, da Vinci 5 placements more than doubled. Stock gapped from an overnight 362.45 to 402.29, an 11% move — the framework still reads it too extended to chase.

The Board · Every Tradeable Setup, Ranked

#	Ticker	Dir	Entry (dev · price)	Trigger	Invalidation	Edge (WR · Conf · Comp)	Size
1	IP	Long	OPEN +2.07% · ~$37.70–37.90	COILED 25% and building; close > $37.90	4H close < $37.30	73% (11/13) · Conf 11 (2F) — top score in scan · COILED 25%	High-Vol strict
2	AMZN	Short	PASS −1.25% · ~$249.50–250.50	Rejected the $254–256 zone Thursday; close < $249	4H close > $252	86% (14/15) · Conf 9 (2F)	Mid +5pp
3	UBER	Short	OPEN −1.61% · ~$73.80–74.20	COILED 100% — tightest coil in the scan; break < $73.30	4H close > $75.00	75% (4/4) · Conf 9 (2F) · COILED 100%	Mid +5pp
4	DNA	Short	PASS −1.42% · ~$8.15–8.25	92% convergence zone; close < $8.20	4H close > $8.45	100% (6/6) · Conf 8 (3F)	High-Vol strict
5	BRK.B	Long	PASS +0.70% · ~$492.50–494.00	80% convergence zone; hold > $492	4H close < $489.50	93% (27/30) — best sample in book · Conf 8 (3F)	Equity-daily +10pp
6	FCEL	Long	OPEN +2.87% · ~$17.10–17.30	79% convergence zone; hold > $17.00 overnight base	4H close < $16.50	78% (9/9) · Conf 7 (2F)	High-Vol strict
7	REGN	Long	OPEN +1.60% · ~$678–682	Reclaim toward the $685.66 overnight high	4H close < $670	100% (4/4) · Conf 6 (1F)	Mid +5pp
8	MCHP	Short	OPEN −1.39% · ~$81.00–82.00	Chip-sector weakness (TSM selloff); close < $80.50	4H close > $83.00	67% (12/12) · Conf 6 (2F)	High-Vol strict
9	MELI	Short	OPEN −1.44% · ~$1,850–1,860	Fade toward the $1,848 overnight base	4H close > $1,880	71% (7/7) · Conf 6 (1F)	Mid +5pp
10	PACB	Long	OPEN +1.00% · ~$1.48–1.50	Hold above the $1.48 overnight base	4H close < $1.44	95% (19/19) — cleanest WR in the book · Conf 6 (1F)	High-Vol strict
11	DE	Long	OPEN +2.80% · ~$597–600	Hold above the $596.49 overnight base	4H close < $592	73% (15/17) · Conf 5 (1F)	Mid +5pp
12	ITRI	Long	PASS +0.59% · ~$85.50–86.20	Hold above the $85.80 overnight base	4H close < $84.50	83% (12/13) · Conf 4 (1F)	Mid +5pp
13	ARKK	Long	OPEN +1.58% · ~$76.50–77.00	Hold above the $75.95 overnight base	4H close < $75.00	91% (11/13) · Conf 4 (1F)	Mid +5pp

If you watch one: International Paper — the single highest Confidence Score of anything scanned today, still building compression, still open.

Execution Detail · Top Setups

IP — International Paper · LONG · Primary

Entry

$37.70–37.90 · Dev Filter OPEN +2.07%

Trigger

Compression building at 25%. Overnight session already lifted price to 37.71 off Thursday's close; needs a 4H close above $37.90 to confirm the release

Invalidation

4H close back below $37.30 loses the reclaim

Edge

73% WR (11/13) · Conf 11 (2F) — the single highest raw confidence score in today's scan · COILED 25% building

Size

High-Vol strict tier. Reduced size given volatility, standard confidence.

AMZN — Amazon · SHORT · Secondary

Entry

$249.50–250.50 · Dev Filter PASS −1.25%

Trigger

Bearish Signal 2 print rejected the $254–256 resistance zone Thursday; price is recovering off the 246.39 overnight low. A fresh close back under $249 confirms the short resumes

Invalidation

4H close above $252 reclaims the rejection zone

Edge

86% WR (14/15) · Conf 9 (2F)

Size

Mid tier (+5pp). Standard size, high-confidence sample.

UBER — Uber Technologies · SHORT · Third

Entry

$73.80–74.20 · Dev Filter OPEN −1.61%

Trigger

Maximum compression — COILED at 100%, the single tightest coil in today's scan. Price already faded off the 73.39 overnight low; a break below $73.30 releases the move

Invalidation

4H close above $75.00

Edge

75% WR (4/4, small sample) · Conf 9 (2F) · COILED 100%

Size

Mid tier (+5pp). Standard size, small completed-trade sample.

The One Number

Write this down

IP — $37.90

Conf 11 is the highest raw confidence score anywhere in today's scan, and compression is still building at 25%, not yet released. The overnight session already lifted price to 37.71; a 4H close above $37.90 confirms the breakout and this becomes the cleanest long in the book. Lose $37.30 and the setup resets — stand aside until it reloads.

Watch / Avoid

Ticker	Dev	Reset / level	Why not today
ISRG	−7.52% FAIL	~$385	Gapped 11% overnight on the Q2 earnings beat; still too extended below its own VWAP anchor to chase — wait for a reset
NAS100	−2.87% FAIL	~28,300	Only major index failing its own filter; chip-led weakness (TSM's post-earnings drop) is the direct cause
SPX	−0.43%	n/a	Composite 0/9, Cantillon flow DISTRIBUTION — index layer thinning under the surface despite the green tape
RUSSELL	−0.83%	n/a	Composite 0/9 — same distribution read, weakest breadth of the four indices
DJIA	+1.17%	n/a	Composite 0/9 despite the green day — same index-level distribution as SPX and Russell
BTCUSD	+1.59%	n/a	Only asset red on the day (−0.97%); bond-equity correlation flagged Stress Recovery at 0.67, the weakest cross-asset read on the sheet

Legend

Dev — % distance from institutional AVWAP anchor. PASS / OPEN = within entry band, qualifies; FAIL = too extended to enter cleanly. Conf (XF) — institutional confidence confirmed across X timeframes. COILED / Building % — volatility compression; higher = larger expected move on release. COILED = maximum. WR (n/m) — win rate across m completed signals (500-bar window). Overnight — the last overnight-session price, distinct from the live/current price; the gap between the two shows whether a name is extending or fading into today's session. Tiers — High-Vol strict (size −30–40%), Mid (+5pp band), Equity-daily (+10pp band).

For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. All levels and signals are produced by the Institutional Volume Terminal (IVT) framework. Past win rates do not guarantee future results. Manage risk independently. © 2026 Cantillon Research · thecantillonreport.substack.com

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