Nasdaq's oversold snapback signal is firing right now, backed by the strongest win rate on the sheet at 89% across 19 clean fires and confidence confirmed on four timeframes. It is also 2.08% below its own institutional anchor, which puts it outside the entry band. That is the session in one line: the highest-quality read is untradeable, and the money is in the setups that qualified quietly. ARK Innovation is the one that did, with a signal already confirmed inside an active institutional convergence zone. Vistra is sitting at maximum compression on the short side. Twelve setups clear the board.
The single-name scan has gone FULL RISK-OFF at Composite +1/9, and the indices have not followed it there yet. Every individual equity scanned today reads all three layers off (bonds, equities, risk), Macro Bonus -2, Leader Tied. The four index reads and Bitcoin still hold SPECULATIVE at Composite +3/9 with the risk layer alone confirmed and Leader tagged Risk. That is a straight reversal of Friday, when single names carried the higher Composite and the indices were the ones thinning out. Volatility is not confirming the defensive read: VIX sits at Low Fear 17 on the equity scans and Neutral 19 on the index scans, and the breadth dashboard flagged BREADTH RECOVERY into Friday's close, with the advance-decline line at +2,376 and the Summation Index at +13,109 even as the McClellan Oscillator stayed negative at -48.8. So this is positioning quality deteriorating underneath a tape that is still holding, not a panic. The number that decides the week is whether Nasdaq closes the 2.08% gap back to its anchor before Wednesday's earnings block.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Edge (WR · Conf · Comp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARKK | Short | 🔒 Members | 91% (11/13) · Conf 7 (3F) · Signal 2 · Convergence ACTIVE 87% |
| The only name today with a confirmed signal, an active institutional convergence zone, and intraday bias and multi-bar trend pointing the same way. It has won 11 of its 13 recorded fires. | ||||
| 2 | VST | Short | 🔒 Members | 83% (6/7) · Conf 4 (2F) · COILED 100% |
| Volatility compression has maxed out here, the tightest coil anywhere on today's sheet, and both the daily bias and the 408-bar structure agree on the downside. | ||||
| 3 | MAGS | Long | 🔒 Members | 100% (4/5) · Conf 7 (4F) · Building 69% |
| Highest confidence reading on the board and confirmed across four timeframes, though five recorded fires is a young sample and Alphabet and Tesla report Wednesday. | ||||
| 4 | DAX | Long | 🔒 Members | 82% (22/22) · Conf 6 (3F) · Building 83% |
| Twenty-two completed fires make this the deepest evidence base of any setup here, and it is the single instrument whose breadth panel is outright confirming rather than neutral. | ||||
| 5 | WMT | Long | 🔒 Members | 100% (2/2) · Conf 4 (3F) · Building 78% |
| One of only two names whose entry filter has actually confirmed rather than merely opened. Two recorded fires is far too small a sample to size normally against. | ||||
| 6 | PACB | Short | 🔒 Members | 95% (20/20) · Conf 3 (2F) · Building 83% |
| Cleanest track record in the entire book: twenty completed fires, nineteen of them resolved the signal's way. Modest confidence score, exceptional consistency. | ||||
| 7 | RRX | Long | 🔒 Members | 100% (14/15) · Conf 4 (2F) · Building 99% |
| Compression here is one point off maximum and still building, with fourteen winners in fifteen fires. Trades on the high-volatility tier, so size comes down accordingly. | ||||
| 8 | AMZN | Short | 🔒 Members | 86% (14/16) · Conf 4 (2F) · COILED 74% |
| Strong sample and real compression, but today's bearish bias is arguing with a bullish 209-bar structure underneath it. That disagreement is why it sits eighth and not third. | ||||
| 9 | IP | Long | 🔒 Members | 73% (11/13) · Conf 4 (2F) · COILED 89% |
| Friday's top-ranked name is still coiled hard, but its confidence score has collapsed from 11 to 4 and the longer structure now reads bearish against the long. | ||||
| 10 | REGN | Long | 🔒 Members | 100% (5/5) · Conf 3 (2F) · Building 84% |
| Every recorded fire has resolved in the signal's direction, bias and structure agree, and healthcare earnings land Tuesday. Small sample keeps it out of the top five. | ||||
| 11 | CF | Long | 🔒 Members | 88% (8/10) · Conf 3 (2F) · Building 85% |
| Fertiliser leverage to the oil move, compression building steadily, eight winners in ten. A supporting position rather than a lead one. | ||||
| 12 | BKNG | Short | 🔒 Members | 67% (6/11) · Conf 2 (1F) · COILED 77% |
| Genuine compression and an aligned bearish structure, but confidence rests on a single timeframe and the historical hit rate is the weakest that still made the board. | ||||
If you watch one: ARKK. It is the only setup today where a signal has actually confirmed at its entry filter rather than merely sitting inside the band, and it does it inside an institutional convergence zone reading 87% active, with bias and the 384-bar structure both bearish. Highest confidence of any name that qualified, 91% across 11 of 13 fires.
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