Friday Free Brief · July 3, 2026 · Crypto, Commodities & Index Cash Free for All

COILED. Russell 2000 Compresses to 66%, NAS100 Short Runs 13-for-13. Crypto and Metals Too Extended to Chase. DISTRIBUTION Holds, Composite +5/9.

US cash equities and bonds are closed today for the July 4 holiday (observed), so this read runs entirely on crypto, metals, and index cash CFDs — the instruments that keep trading through the long weekend. Russell 2000 is the cleanest setup on the board: COILED at 66%, Conf 5, 88% win rate. NAS100 confirms the short side at a perfect 13-for-13. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Avalanche, Solana, Gold, and Silver are all too far from their institutional VWAP anchors to qualify as clean entries today. The level that decides the Russell long is inside.

RegimeDistribution

Composite+5 / 9

LayersBd ✗ · Eq ✓ · Rsk ✗

VIX+1.5 · Low Fear (16)

Macro Bonus−1

LeaderEquities

Transition→ Stable

BreadthConfirming +3/8

DISTRIBUTION — equities are the only confirmed layer today; bonds and risk assets aren't backing the tape. Composite +5/9, VIX supportive at 16 (Low Fear), Macro Bonus −1. Breadth is healthier than the flow label suggests — CONFIRMING at +3/8, with 67.1% of names above the 50-day average and 65.9% above the 200-day. With cash equities and bonds shut for the holiday, everything routes through crypto, metals, and index CFDs — and most of that board is extended. Russell 2000 is the one clean entry.

Session note: US cash equities and bond markets are closed today, July 3, in observance of Independence Day (July 4 falls on Saturday). No individual stock reads in this brief — coverage below is limited to crypto, metals, and the index cash CFDs that continue trading through the holiday.

The Board · Every Tradeable Setup, Ranked

#	Ticker	Dir	Entry (dev · price)	Trigger	Invalidation	Edge (WR · Conf · Vol Comp)	Size
1	NAS100	Short	OPEN −0.63% · ~$29,594 (AVWAP ~$29,781)	4H bearish close confirming rejection of AVWAP $29,781	4H close above $29,781	85% (13/13) · Conf 2 (1F) · Expanded 55%	0.75x
2	RUSSELL 2000	Long	OPEN +0.38% · ~$2,999 (AVWAP ~$2,988)	4H bullish close holding above AVWAP $2,988; COILED 66% raises odds of a fast move on release	4H close below AVWAP $2,988	88% (8/9) · Conf 5 (1F) · COILED 66%	0.75x
3	SP500	Long	OPEN +0.85% · ~$7,504 (AVWAP ~$7,441)	4H bullish continuation close holding above AVWAP $7,441; Building 97% is one step from COILED	4H close below AVWAP $7,441	67% (9/10) · Conf 2 (1F) · Building 97%	0.75x
4	SUI	Long	OPEN +2.72% · ~$0.7435 (AVWAP ~$0.7238)	4H bullish close continuing above AVWAP $0.7238; next signal qualifies at current levels	4H close below AVWAP $0.7238	73% (11/11) · Conf 2 (2F) · Expanded 15%	0.5x
5	BTC	Short	OPEN −0.67% · ~$61,705 (AVWAP ~$62,123)	4H bearish close confirming rejection of AVWAP $62,123	4H close above $62,123	50% (6/6) · Conf 0 (1F) · Expanded 21%	0.5x

If you watch one: Russell 2000 — Conf 5 (1F), COILED at 66% (near-maximum volatility compression), 88% WR (8/9 clean), and still inside its entry filter at +0.38% deviation. It's the highest-confidence setup on today's board that's actually tradeable right now. Entry level, trigger, and invalidation are below.

Execution Detail · Top Setups

RUSSELL 2000 (US Small Cap Cash CFD) · LONG · Primary

Entry

Dev OPEN +0.38% (~$2,999). AVWAP (deviation from the anchored institutional volume-weighted price) is ~$2,988. Price is barely above that level — well inside the 1.0–1.5% equity daily filter. The next signal qualifies at current levels. COILED 66% (near-maximum volatility compression — a larger move is likely when it releases) is building underneath a bullish swing structure that's been intact for 421 bars.

Trigger

4H bullish close confirming a hold above AVWAP $2,988. Given the COILED read, a breakout in either direction is overdue — but Conf 5 (1F), bullish swing type, and 88% WR all favor the long side on release.

Invalidation

4H close below AVWAP ~$2,988. A clean reclaim failure here would flip the read and close the setup for this window.

Edge

88% WR (8/9 clean) · Conf 5 (1F) — highest confidence reading among today's tradeable setups · COILED 66% · Equity Daily tier (+10pp filter) · Bd-Eq Corr Normal (−0.12) — no stress reduction applies.

Size

0.75x. Equity Daily instrument tier, Normal correlation regime, no size penalties in effect. Full allocation within the standard Composite +5/9 framework.

NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) · SHORT · Secondary

Entry

Dev OPEN −0.63% (~$29,594). AVWAP ~$29,781. Price sits just below its institutional VWAP anchor, comfortably inside the 1.0–1.5% filter. This is the cleanest win-rate read on the entire board today.

Trigger

4H bearish close confirming rejection of AVWAP $29,781. Vol Comp is Expanded (55%) rather than compressed, so this reads as a continuation short rather than a breakout — the edge is the 13/13 clean record, not a volatility squeeze.

Invalidation

4H close above AVWAP ~$29,781. That reclaim breaks the short thesis for this window.

Edge

85% WR (13/13 clean — perfect recent record) · Conf 2 (1F) — the confidence reading is modest, but the win-rate sample is the largest and cleanest on the board · Equity Daily tier · Normal correlation.

Size

0.75x. No stress or volatility penalties. Treat the low Conf score as a reason to respect the invalidation strictly rather than a reason to skip the trade — the 13/13 record is doing the work here.

SUI (Perpetual) · LONG · Crypto Tertiary

Entry

Dev OPEN +2.72% (~$0.7435). AVWAP ~$0.7238. This is a borderline qualifier — inside the High Volatility (strict) filter range, but closer to its edge than Russell or NAS100. The next signal qualifies at current levels.

Trigger

4H bullish close continuing to hold above AVWAP $0.7238. SUI is the only crypto name on the board that's both bullish and inside its deviation filter today — AVAX and SOL are both too extended to chase.

Invalidation

4H close below AVWAP ~$0.7238.

Edge

73% WR (11/11 clean — perfect record) · Conf 2 (2F) · High Volatility (strict) tier.

Size

0.5x. High-volatility crypto tier caps size regardless of the clean record — treat the perfect 11/11 sample as encouraging, not as license to oversize a borderline-deviation entry.

The One Number

Russell 2000 AVWAP — The Level That Decides the Long

$2,988

Russell 2000's institutional VWAP anchor sits at approximately $2,988. Price is at $2,999 — just 0.38% above it, and the setup is COILED at 66% (near-maximum volatility compression). If Russell holds a 4H close above $2,988, the highest-confidence tradeable setup on today's board stays intact and the compression argues for a larger move on release. If it closes back below, the long thesis breaks and the DISTRIBUTION read gets a second confirmation from the small-cap side. With cash equities closed, this is the cleanest structural read available today.

Watch / Avoid

Ticker	Dev	Reset Zone	Why Not
AVAX	FAIL +5.25%	Reset to AVWAP ~$6.52	Conf 7 (2F), COILED 81%, 73% WR (22/25) — a genuinely strong read, but too extended above AVWAP to qualify as a clean entry. Best setup on the board if it resets.
SOL	FAIL +12.88%	Reset to AVWAP ~$71.92	100% WR (19/19) historically, but 12.88% above AVWAP — the move has already played. No fresh entry until it compresses back toward the anchor.
ETH	FAIL −3.04%	Reset to AVWAP ~$1,779	Conf 0 (1F), small sample (5/5). Bearish bias but weak conviction even once it resets to the anchor.
GOLD	FAIL −7.52%	Reset to AVWAP ~$4,517	Bearish, Conf 1 (2F), deeply extended below its VWAP anchor. No clean short here today.
SILVER	FAIL −13.72%	Reset to AVWAP ~$72.55	Massively extended — the most stretched instrument on the board. SD2L Extreme (oversold snapback signal) is ACTIVE, but that's a structural mean-reversion read, not a short-term trade.
DOW (US30)	FAIL +3.63%	Reset to AVWAP ~$50,954	Conf 1 (1F), only 50% WR on a 2-trade sample even when the filter is open. Low priority even on a reset.

Legend

Dev — VWAP Deviation: how far price is from the institutional VWAP anchor. OPEN = within filter range (entry qualifies). FAIL = too extended, no new entries. · Conf X (XF) — Institutional confidence confirmed across X independent timeframes. Higher = stronger signal. · COILED — Near-maximum volatility compression. Price is tightly wound; a larger move is likely when it releases. · Building X% — Compression developing but not fully loaded. · WR (500) — Win rate on the most recent 500-bar window. Format: X% (completed/total). · SD2L Extreme — Oversold snapback signal; historically precedes large mean-reversion moves. · Composite — Sum of active Cantillon layers (max 9). · DISTRIBUTION — Liquidity layer off, equities on, risk layer off. Equities are the only confirmed layer; treat every setup on individual merit rather than assuming broad tailwinds. · 0.5x / 0.75x — Position sizing relative to your standard unit.

CANTILLON RESEARCH · thecantillonreport.substack.com · cantillonresearch.com

This brief is published for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All framework reads, signal tiers, and execution notes reflect the IVT v13.3 indicator output and the Cantillon Research analytical process — they are not personalised investment recommendations. Past win rates do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, risk management, and trade execution are the sole responsibility of the reader. Trade only what you understand and can afford to lose.

Get the Full Brief Every Trading Day