Friday Free Brief · June 26, 2026 Free for All

COILED. CRSP at Maximum Compression — Conf 11 (3F). Six Shorts, One Long. EARLY CYCLE Confirmed.

CRSP carries the board's highest confidence reading — Conf 11 across three independent timeframes — at near-maximum volatility compression (88%). NAS100 confirms the short direction at 80% WR, 10 for 10 clean. PLUG is the single clean long: Building 91%, Conf 9 (2F), 8/8 perfect. EARLY CYCLE regime upgrade from yesterday's ACCUMULATION. The one number that decides the NAS100 short is inside.

RegimeEarly Cycle
Composite+2 / 9
LayersBd ✓ · Eq ✓ · Rsk ✗
VIX−0.5 · Neutral (19)
Macro Bonus+1
LeaderLiquidity
Transition→ Stable
BreadthCONFIRMING +6/8

EARLY CYCLE — regime upgraded from ACCUMULATION overnight. Bonds confirmed, equities now confirmed at the regime level. Risk layer still offline (BTC below AVWAP, Layer 3 off). Composite +2/9, Macro Bonus +1. Breadth CONFIRMING at +6/8: 63.3% above 50MA, 61.8% above 200MA, McClellan −1.4. The structural picture is improving, but the 4H setups are short-heavy today. Bd-Eq Corr shows Stress Recovery (0.47) on individual equities — reduce single-stock sizing 25%. Major indices read Normal correlation; no stress reduction on index trades.

The Board · Every Tradeable Setup, Ranked
#TickerDirEntry (dev · price)TriggerInvalidationEdge (WR · Conf · Vol Comp)Size
1CRSPShort 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 82% (11/12) · Conf 11 (3F) · COILED 88% 0.5x
2NAS100Short 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 80% (10/10) · Conf 8 (3F) · Building 67% 0.75x
3PLUGLong 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 75% (8/8) · Conf 9 (2F) · Building 91% 0.5x
4BRK.BShort 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 93% (21/30) · Conf 7 (1F) · Conv ACTIVE 75% 0.5x
5TTEKShort 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 93% (15/15) · Conf 6 (3F) · Expanded 33% 0.5x
6GMEDShort 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 🔒 Members 100% (14/14) · Conf 5 (2F) · Expanded 38% 0.5x

If you watch one: CRSP — Conf 11 (3F), near-maximum volatility compression at COILED 88%, 82% WR (11/12 clean). When the board's highest confidence reading meets near-maximum compression, the next signal carries outsized probability. Entry level, trigger, and invalidation are inside.

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CANTILLON RESEARCH · thecantillonreport.substack.com · cantillonresearch.com

This brief is published for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All framework reads, signal tiers, and execution notes reflect the IVT v13.3 indicator output and the Cantillon Research analytical process — they are not personalised investment recommendations. Past win rates do not guarantee future results. Position sizing, risk management, and trade execution are the sole responsibility of the reader. Trade only what you understand and can afford to lose.