From EARLY CYCLE +3/9 Thursday to FULL RISK-OFF −5/9 Friday — every Cantillon layer flipped. Indices confirmed structural breaks. One short has its entry gate open heading into Monday. Everything else is extended or waiting. For the full breakdown of why the regime flipped, see the free piece published earlier this weekend.
All three Cantillon layers are off, bond-equity correlation is elevated at 0.85, and SP500 / NAS100 / Russell all confirmed structural breaks Friday. The macro stress signal is confirmed at the index level; individual stocks still show Normal correlation (−0.29), which is why single-name shorts can still qualify. Until SP500 reclaims VWAP at 7,530, this is a short-side or sidelines environment only.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry (dev · price) | Trigger | Invalidation | Edge (WR · Conf · Comp) | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QCOM | Short | PASS −1.09% · ~$215 · S2 BEAR active | Hold below $214 into open; continuation from current level | 4H close above $222 | 67% WR (10/15) · Conf 0 (2F) · −3/9 · 54b avg | Crypto 4H strict — reduce 30–40% |
| 2 | TSLA | Short | PASS −0.06% · ~$391 · S2 BEAR active | Open below $390; bearish gap or continuation | 4H close above $400 | 43% WR (7 closed) · Conf −1 (2F) · FULL R-O −2 | Half size max — Conf below threshold |
| 3 | LHX | Watch | OPEN 0.81% · ~$308 · No signal yet | Next bear signal bar qualifies | — | 67% WR (6/6) · Conf 4 (1F) · COILED 54% | No entry until signal fires |
If you watch one: QCOM — active S2 bear signal, Dev Filter PASS, confidence above zero, regime fully aligned short. TSLA gate is open but with Conf −1 below zero and a 43% win rate, it doesn't qualify as a primary trade.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete June 8, 2026 brief — QCOM short execution levels, TSLA S2 BEAR parameters, SP500 7,530 as the single regime flip line, and the full Watch/Avoid table for all 11 instruments in the scan.