The framework's verdict on Friday vs Monday: Friday was a breakdown, Monday was an SD2L snapback within a broken structure. The Composite deteriorated from −5/9 to −6/9 — the rally didn't improve the regime, it relieved oversold conditions. One instrument has its entry gate open across eleven in the scan. That's BCE.
Composite slipped from −5/9 Monday to −6/9 today — the bounce didn't fix anything at the regime level. All three Cantillon layers remain off, bond-equity correlation is still elevated at 0.81–0.88 on the indices (a stress signal), and every index has its Dev Filter closed. Individual stocks show Normal correlation (−0.21), so single-name setups can still qualify — but the one that does is BCE, which carries a bullish read independent of the macro backdrop. SP500 VWAP at ~7,516 is the line: a 4H close above it challenges the relief-rally thesis; anything short of that and the broken structure holds.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry (dev · price) | Trigger | Invalidation | Edge (WR · Conf · Comp) | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BCE | Long | PASS +0.18% · ~$24.18 · entry gate open now | 4H close above $24.18 on volume; hold above VWAP ~$24.14 | 4H close below $23.90 | 78% WR (18/20) · Conf 3 (4F) · Normal corr · 26b avg | Equity daily (+10pp) · 50% normal — counter-regime |
| 2 | QCOM | Short · Watch | FAIL −1.13% · ~$217 live · VWAP ~$220 | Rally into VWAP ~$220, then 4H rejection close below $218 | 4H close above $224 | 67% WR (15/16) · Conf −2 (2F) · Comp −6/9 · 54b avg | No entry until Dev PASS · regime-aligned direction |
| 3 | ARKK | Long · Watch | FAIL +0.1% · ~$75.84 · nearly at threshold | Dev compresses to 0% or flips PASS; S3[10] is active | 4H close below $75.00 | 77% WR (13/16) · Conf 5 (3F) · Conv ACTIVE 99% | No entry — Dev FAIL. Track for PASS at open. |
If you watch one: BCE — it's the only entry gate open across the entire scan. One instrument, one direction, one decision. Everything else is waiting for either a Dev reset or a regime shift.
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