16 of 22 charts carry red lights on the morning the cycle turned to Early Cycle. SiriusXM is the long: coiled 73%, ten readings agreeing, already over its line overnight. WEX is the short once it closes back under. Zymeworks sits on its line. All three are half size. SiriusXM’s cost line at $26.22 is the number.
| Buy | SiriusXM long, half size. Coiled 73%, and the overnight print already sits over its line. |
| Sell | WEX short, half size, only after a four-hour close back under its line. Sellers own 21% of the volume. |
| Buy | Zymeworks long, half size, on a line crossed twice in 83 bars a side. |
| Wait | On Holding. A tier 2 buy, but only 16 of the 20 signals a record needs, and it slipped back under its line overnight. |
| Avoid | Amcor, Gap, Fifth Third, Tyler. The highest confirmation on the scan, 10 to 12 on four frames, and every one of them red. |
September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% forecast, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.28%. The S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 7,718.94 and the Nasdaq 1.88%, with the Fed deciding on October 28.
Distribution ended after four sessions. The bond layer switched on, stocks stayed on, risk appetite stayed off, and the tailwind for longs swung from −1 to +2. That layer reads a ten-session trend, so one hot print and a 5.28% yield have not turned it off yet. Single stocks still trade bonds and stocks as one move, over the 0.35 stress line. A better cycle does not override a red light, so every trade below is half size.
| Index | The line | What it means this morning |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 CFD 7,698.42 | Inside | 0.20% over its 7,683 cost line, from 1.84%. Coiled 100% on Wednesday, expanded 14% now: the coil broke down, not up. Red, improving, −.12R over 26. |
| Nasdaq 100 CFD 29,707.7 | Back under | 0.12% under its 29,743 cost line, from 2.91% over. Confirmation 8 on three frames. Red, fading, +.01R over 115. |
| Dow CFD 51,620 | Inside, short side | 1.27% under its 52,284 cost line, from 1.02%. Red, fading, −.09R over 47. |
| Russell 2000 2,732.8 | Lost it | 5.41% under its 2,889 line, from 3.44%, and the oversold snapback signal is firing with a tier 3 read. Red, holding, −.02R over 37. A snapback on a red light is not a buy. |
Breadth went the other way from the cycle. The index panel flipped from Confirming +3 to Diverging, −3 of 8, with 35% of stocks above their 50-day average, from 38.2%, and 48.3% above their 200-day. Our own engine, run at 01:21 CEST on its watchlist, reads 33 advancers for a net −8, advance/decline 0.80 and McClellan +7.4 from +26.7. The summation index fell to −621 from −316. A better cycle on thinner participation.
Every capture this morning was taken between 07:23 and 07:31 CEST, so every extended-hours price is an overnight print. WEX printed over its line and On Holding slipped under it. Both wait for the first four-hour close after the 15:30 CEST open, which lands at 19:30 CEST. Every overnight price against its cost line is in the members’ half.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SIRI | Long | 🔒 Members | Based for three weeks just above the price large money paid, wound tight, with ten readings agreeingConf 10 / 2 frames · coiled 73% · +.06R over 64 signals, range −.03 to +.15 · amber, holding | Half |
| 2 | WEX | Short | 🔒 Members | Fell from $200 in September, then bounced for two weeks into the underside of its line with sellers in control of the volumeConf 8 / 3 frames · building 93% · sellers 21% · +.08R over 83 signals, range −.02 to +.19 · amber, holding, 9.6-point cushion | Half |
| 3 | ZYME | Long | 🔒 Members | Gave back a run to $31 and settled onto its line, which has been crossed twice in 83 bars a sideConf 7 / 3 frames · building 82% · +.10R over 23 signals, range −.10 to +.30 · amber, fading, 12.7-point cushion | Half |
| 4 | ONON | Long | 🔒 Members | Rallied from $29 to its line in seven sessions and crossed it for the first time in 125 bars a sideTier 2 buy · Conf 6 / 3 frames · expanded 24% · 16 of 20 signals, no rate · no light yet | Half |
SiriusXM closed Wednesday at $26.53 and printed $26.35 overnight, 13 cents above the line. A four-hour close over $26.22 keeps the long live. A close under it means the three-week base failed, and you wait.
You can check this against the tape yourself, which is why it sits on the free side of the gate. The exit and the targets do not.
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Every Friday the complete brief ships open, with all levels, every execution block and all terminal captures, and no gate anywhere on the page.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut window. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and measured over the same history the settings were chosen on. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published. A short record is not a verdict on the chart, only on what can be measured yet. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. A chart with no light yet, because its record is still being built, is sized at half. The cushion is how close the light is to changing. SCAN · a name that reached the board through the nightly wide scan of about 1,400 liquid US stocks rather than the Liquid 100.
Readings captured Thursday 15 October 2026 between 07:23 and 07:31 CEST from the IVT v14.4 terminal, on four-hour bars. Prices marked overnight are extended-hours prints. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal’s published percentage distances. Index levels are CFD feeds and differ from the cash index and your futures contract. Support and resistance levels are read off the chart and are approximate.
Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one. SiriusXM reports on October 29 and Schwab reports today. Check WEX’s, Zymeworks’ and On Holding’s report dates before holding through one.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.