Friday Brief · October 16, 2026 Free Edition

Copa Fired. Banner Is Wound Tight.

Long yields had their biggest one-day drop since February, and five of sixteen charts came through with an amber light. Copa fired a tier 3 buy inside its window. Banner is coiled 96% on its line. Both are half size. The number is $132.70.

Date Friday, October 16, 2026

Access Free edition, complete

Scanned 16 instruments

Captured 08:53–09:00 CEST, overnight

Timeframe 4-hour throughout

Terminal IVT v14.4

If You Read Nothing Else

Buy	CPA long, half size, at $136.68 or lower, while four-hour closes hold above $132.70. A tier 3 buy with four timeframes agreeing.
Buy	BANR long, half size, at $68.21 or lower, while closes hold above $66.87. Coiled 96%, light improving.
Wait	PDM long. Wound to 100%, but four cents under the top of its window. Buy only at $9.09 or lower.
Wait	SPCX short. Inside its window at Thursday's close, then printed $153.01 overnight, back over its $151.21 line.
Skip	HIFS, PRI and all four indices. Ten of sixteen charts carry a red light, including two of the tightest coils on the scan.

Market Update

Hot Print, Falling Yields

September producer prices jumped 1.3% on the month, the largest rise since March 2022. The 10-year yield fell anyway, more than 10 basis points to 5.09%, its biggest one-day drop since February, as money left chip stocks for Treasurys and defensive sectors. The Dow gained 1.08% to 52,177.69. The Nasdaq traded down more than 1% and finished up 0.08%.

Record Quarter, Lower Stock TSMC printed its sixth record quarter in a row, profit up 68.7%, and the shares still fell as gross margin slipped to 66.4% from 67.7%.
AI Credit Is Flashing CoreWeave's credit default swaps hit a record, pricing roughly 60% odds of default within five years.

Where The Market Is

Cycle stateEarly Cycle

Strength+2 of 10.5

Money flowingOn

Stocks joiningOn

Risk appetiteOff

Fear levelLow · 17

Tailwind for longs+2

Bonds vs stocks−0.6 to 0.37

Early Cycle held for a second session and the tailwind for longs stayed at +2. Strength slipped to +2 of 10.5 from +5, and risk appetite is still off. On the index charts bonds and stocks move apart at −0.6. On single stocks they move together at 0.37, just over the 0.35 stress line. So every trade below is half size.

Participation · The Panel Recovered, The Watchlist Did Not

The index panel swung back to Neutral, +2 of 8 from Diverging −3 on Thursday, and the stock charts read Confirming +3. 44.1% of stocks sit above their 50-day average, up from 35%, and 51.9% above their 200-day, up from 48.3%. Our own engine, run at 01:09 CEST on its watchlist, did not follow: 33 advancers, a net of −8, advance/decline 0.80, and a McClellan of −9.0, down from +7.4. Its summation index improved to −568 from −621.

The Indices · The Dow Is On Its Line

Index	The line	What it means this morning
S&P 500 CFD 7,758.10	Inside	0.96% over its 7,684 cost line, from 0.20%. Confirmation 3 on two frames. Red, improving, −.12R over 26.
Nasdaq 100 CFD 29,958.6	Back over	0.73% over its 29,741 line, from 0.12% under. Line crossed 18 times. Red, fading, +.01R over 115.
Dow CFD 52,261	On it	0.03% under its 52,277 line, from 1.27% under, pressed into the falling trendline with its averages converged at 89%. Red, fading, −.09R over 47.
Russell 2000 CFD 2,771.7	Lost it	3.92% under its 2,885 line, from 5.41%. The oversold snapback is active on two frames. Red, holding, −.02R over 37.

Before The Bell · One Name Crossed

Every capture was taken between 08:53 and 09:00 CEST, so every extended-hours price is an overnight print. Eleven of the twelve stocks printed on the same side of their line as Thursday's close. SpaceX did not: it closed 1.72% under its $151.21 line and printed $153.01 overnight, 1.19% over it. Allison printed $109.45, 2.91% under its line, on a red light. Every entry below is judged on the first four-hour close after the 15:30 CEST open, which lands at 19:30 CEST.

The Board · Every Qualified Setup, Ranked

#	Ticker	Dir	Why it is on this list	Size
1	CPA	Long	Ten weeks of base on its cost line, and a tier 3 buy fired on the last bounce with buyers in control of the volumeTier 3 buy · Conf 11 / 4 frames · building 77% · buyers 17% · +.08R over 66 signals, range −.03 to +.19 · amber, holding, 10.9-point cushion	Half
2	BANR	Long	Fell from $72 onto its line in September and has sat on it for three weeks, wound almost as tight as the terminal measuresConf 11 / 3 frames · coiled 96% · converged 75% · +.08R over 91 signals, range −.01 to +.18 · amber, improving, 10.9-point cushion	Half
3	PDM	Long	The highest confirmation on the scan, fully wound, but sitting at the top of its windowConf 12 / 5 frames · coiled 100% · +.03R over 63 signals, range −.06 to +.13 · amber, holding, 5.3-point cushion	Half
4	PPLI	Long	Gapped from $37 to $41 at the start of October and has pulled back toward its line since. The best record on the scan, with the widest rangeConf 8 / 3 frames · coiled 88% · +.48R over 39 signals, range −.37 to +1.32 · amber, fading	Half
5	DEC	Short	Rallied from $13.30 to $14.90 in two weeks, rolled over, and slipped just under its line on a tier 1 sellTier 1 sell · Conf 4 / 2 frames · expanded 33% · +.04R over 45 signals, range −.04 to +.11 · amber, holding	Half

#	Name	Side	Entry (distance · price)	Trigger	Get out at	Size
1	CPA	Long	+0.99% · $134.01 band $132.70–$136.68	4h close above $132.70 after the open, filled at $136.68 or lower	$127.90	Half
2	BANR	Long	+0.67% · $67.32 band $66.87–$68.21	4h close above $66.87 after the open, filled at $68.21 or lower	$65.20	Half
3	PDM	Long	+2.50% · $9.05 band $8.83–$9.09	4h close above $8.83, filled at $9.09 or lower	$8.62	Half
4	PPLI	Long	+2.17% · $40.17 band $39.32–$40.50	4h close above $39.32, filled at $40.50 or lower	$38.80	Half
5	DEC	Short	−0.24% · $14.44 band $14.47–$14.04	First 4h close after the open under $14.47, filled at $14.04 or higher	$14.95	Half

If you watch one, watch Copa. It and Banner earn the same per signal, and Banner's coil is tighter. But Copa is the only name on the scan with a fired buy signal, four timeframes agreeing to Banner's three, and buyers holding 17% of the volume where Banner reads neutral.

The One Number

Copa Holdings · Cost Line

$132.70

Copa closed Thursday at $134.01 and printed the same overnight, $1.31 above its line. Four-hour closes over $132.70 keep the tier 3 buy live. A close under it puts Copa back inside a ten-week range with no signal, and you wait.

This one is free. The other four this week were not.

Every level, every execution block and all 16 terminal captures, with no gate anywhere on the page. Monday through Thursday the entry levels sit behind the member wall. Every Friday the whole thing ships open.

Includes the IVT Regime Playbook (PDF), the nine regime states and how to trade each.

How To Take The Top Three

1 · CPA Copa Holdings · LONG · NYSE · 4h

What you are doing: buying a Panama airline that has based on the price large money paid since August, now that a buy signal has fired on its latest bounce.

Entry

Buy at $136.68 or lower, never above.

Trigger

Live now. The tier 3 buy holds while four-hour closes stay above the line.

Get out at

$127.90, under the mid-October swing low.

Evidence

Averages converged at 94%. Line crossed 16 times in 14.7 bars a side, so expect chop near it.

Size

Half. Target $137.50, the falling line off the July high, then $139.60, the early-October high.

CPA · 4h. Tier 3 buy on the line, buyers holding the volume.

2 · BANR Banner Corporation · LONG · NASDAQ · 4h

What you are doing: buying a regional bank sitting on its cost line with its range wound almost as tight as it goes, on the bet that the stored pressure releases upward.

Entry

Buy at $68.21 or lower, never above.

Trigger

The first four-hour close after the 15:30 CEST open, above the line. No signal has fired yet; the next cross qualifies.

Get out at

$65.20, under the October lows and the line beneath them.

Evidence

Coiled for 35 bars. Line crossed 16 times, light improving.

Size

Half. Target $68.30, last week's high, then $70.20, the September volume shelf.

Banner Corporation 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.67 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open with next cross qualifying, confirmation score 11 across three timeframes, coiled spring at 96 percent for 35 bars, institutional convergence active at 75 percent, Early Cycle with composite +2 of 10.5, amber trend light at half size improving with a 10.9 point cushion, expectancy +.08R over 91 resolved signals with range -.01 to +.18, choppy anchor hold with 16 crossings, price 67.32 with overnight 67.32. — **BANR · 4h.** Three weeks on the line, coiled 96%.

3 · PDM Piedmont Realty Trust · LONG · NYSE · 4h

What you are doing: buying an office landlord out of a fully wound range, but only at a price inside the window, not at the overnight print.

Entry

Buy at $9.09 or lower. A pullback toward $8.95 is the better fill.

Trigger

A four-hour close above the line, with price at or under $9.09.

Get out at

$8.62, under the floor of the coil box.

Evidence

The coil box opened in early October and price has held inside it since. Line crossed 6 times in 35.7 bars a side.

Size

Half. Target $9.20, the top of the coil box, then $9.60, the September shelf.

Piedmont Realty Trust 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +2.5 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open with next cross qualifying, confirmation score 12 across five timeframes, coiled up at 100 percent with a coil box at 69 percent, Early Cycle with composite +2 of 10.5, amber trend light at half size holding with a 5.3 point cushion, expectancy +.03R over 63 resolved signals with range -.06 to +.13, mixed anchor hold with 6 crossings, price 9.05 with overnight 9.05. — **PDM · 4h.** Fully wound, four cents from the top of the window.

Looked At And Left Alone

Name	Distance from cost	Comes back at	Why it is not a trade
SPCX	−1.72%, overnight +1.19%	Window open, $146.67 edge	The short closed inside its window, then the overnight print crossed back over the line. Swing reads bear, confirmation 5 on two frames, 1 of 20 signals. Wait for a close back under.
HIFS	+1.36%	Window open, $299.36 edge	Coiled 93% with confirmation 11. Red, improving, −.30R over 22 and a −29.9-point cushion.
PRI	+0.91%	Window open, $283.98 edge	Coiled 84% on its $278.42 line, confirmation 10. Red, holding, +.01R over 36.
ISRG	+0.40%, overnight +0.21%	Window open	Back over its $426.22 line from 2.48% under a week ago, but the swing still reads bear. Red, fading, −.01R over 25.
FTS	+0.97%	Window open, C$78.33 edge	Ran from C$75 to its line in a week. Red, holding, .00R over 124, a 0.7-point cushion.
CPK	−0.17%	Window open	Bearish with confirmation 11 on five frames. Red, −.13R over 147, a −17.3-point cushion.
ALSN	−0.19%, overnight −2.91%	Window open	Confirmation 3 on one frame, expanded 34%. Red, .00R over 50.

The Rest Of The Scan

People Incorporated 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +2.17 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open with next cross qualifying, confirmation score 8 across three timeframes, coiled at 88 percent, amber trend light at half size fading, expectancy +.48R over 39 resolved signals with range -.37 to +1.32, mixed anchor hold with 6 crossings, price 40.17 with overnight 40.17. — **PPLI · 4h.** Best record on the scan, pulling back toward its line.

Diversified Energy 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.24 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter pass, confirmation score 4 across two timeframes, signal tier 1, compression expanded at 33 percent, amber trend light at half size holding, expectancy +.04R over 45 resolved signals with range -.04 to +.11, choppy anchor hold with 13 crossings, price 14.44 with overnight 14.44. — **DEC · 4h.** Rolled over at $14.90 and slipped under the line.

SpaceX 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.72 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open with next cross qualifying, confirmation score 5 across two timeframes, bear swing, high volatility tier, compression expanded at 27 percent, trend light unproven with 1 of 20 signals needed, price 148.61 with overnight 153.01. — **SPCX · 4h.** Short inside the window at the close, back over the line overnight.

Hingham Institution for Savings 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +1.36 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 11 across two timeframes, coiled spring at 93 percent, institutional convergence active at 89 percent, red trend light improving with a -29.9 point cushion, expectancy -.30R over 22 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold with 22 crossings, price 294.59. — **HIFS · 4h.** Coiled 93%, red light, negative record.

Primerica 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.91 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 10 across two timeframes, coiled at 84 percent, red trend light holding with a 1.3 point cushion, expectancy +.01R over 36 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 10 crossings, price 280.95. — **PRI · 4h.** Wound on its line under a red light.

Intuitive Surgical 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.4 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 6 across three timeframes, bear swing, compression expanded at 50 percent, red trend light fading with a -1.2 point cushion, expectancy -.01R over 25 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 3 crossings, price 427.92 with overnight 427.11. — **ISRG · 4h.** Crossed back over its line. Swing still bear.

Fortis 4-hour IVT chart on TSX in Canadian dollars: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.97 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 7 across two timeframes, compression expanded at 18 percent, red trend light holding with a 0.7 point cushion, expectancy .00R over 124 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 8 crossings, price 77.54. — **FTS · 4h.** A week's rally into the line. Red light.

Chesapeake Utilities 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.17 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter pass, confirmation score 11 across five timeframes, institutional convergence active at 93 percent, compression expanded at 58 percent, red trend light holding with a -17.3 point cushion, expectancy -.13R over 147 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold with 18 crossings, price 130.54 with overnight 130.58. — **CPK · 4h.** Five frames agree, the record does not.

Allison Transmission 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.19 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 3 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 34 percent, red trend light holding with a -0.7 point cushion, expectancy .00R over 50 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 11 crossings, price 112.52 with overnight 109.45. — **ALSN · 4h.** Overnight print 2.91% under the line, red light.

S&P 500 cash CFD 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.96 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 3 across two timeframes, compression expanded at 11 percent, Early Cycle with composite +2 of 10.5, VIX 17 low fear, bond-equity correlation -0.6, breadth neutral +2 of 8, red trend light improving, expectancy -.12R over 26 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 0 crossings, price 7,758.10. — **SP500 · 4h.** Back inside the window after the Wednesday flush.

Nasdaq 100 cash CFD 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.73 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 3 across two timeframes, compression expanded at 8 percent, tier 3 buy label at the low, red trend light fading, expectancy +.01R over 115 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold with 18 crossings, price 29,958.6. — **NAS100 · 4h.** Reclaimed its line on Thursday's turn.

Dow Jones 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.03 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 6 across three timeframes, bear swing, institutional convergence active at 89 percent, compression expanded at 21 percent, breadth confirming +4 of 8, red trend light fading, expectancy -.09R over 47 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 3 crossings, price 52,261. — **US30 · 4h.** On its line and on the falling trendline at once.

Russell 2000 cash CFD 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -3.92 percent against a 2 percent window, dev filter fail, confirmation score 4 across three timeframes, oversold snapback active on two timeframes, compression expanded at 10 percent, red trend light holding, expectancy -.02R over 37 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 7 crossings, price 2,771.7. — **RUSSELL · 4h.** Snapback off the channel floor, still far under cost.

What The Words Mean

Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut window. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and measured over the same history the settings were chosen on. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published. A short record is not a verdict on the chart, only on what can be measured yet. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. A chart with no light yet, because its record is still being built, is sized at half.

Readings captured Friday 16 October 2026 between 08:53 and 09:00 CEST from the IVT v14.4 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. Prices marked overnight are extended-hours prints. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal's published percentage distances. Index levels are CFD feeds and differ from the cash index. Fortis trades in Canadian dollars.

Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one.

Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.