The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 all sit above the falling lines that capped them for weeks. The Dow is still under its own. RBC Bearings stays the only green light, now with two timeframes agreeing at confirmation 9, and CF Industries joins at half size. Two names printed lower overnight than they closed, so they wait for the open. The Dow's cost line at 52,293 is the number.
| Sell | RBC short, full size. Still the only green light, and the agreement behind it tripled overnight. |
| Buy | CF Industries long, half size. Bias flipped bullish on its cost line, and the overnight print matches Monday's close to the cent. |
| Wait | CEVA and Editas. Both traded lower overnight than they closed. The first four-hour close decides if that was a shake-out or a turn. |
| Skip | Chasing the index breakouts. Three of four lines broke on a tape where three in four stocks still sit under their 50-day. |
| Wait | The Dow. It has not broken its line, and it trades under the price large money paid. |
Services activity cooled to 54.9 in September, but the prices-paid gauge jumped to 74.0, its highest since July 2022, and hiring crept back into expansion. The 10-year yield climbed to 5.315%, the highest since 2002. Stocks ignored it: the Nasdaq closed at a record, up 1.05%. Rising yields on a hot price print are why the bond layer on the terminal stays switched off into Wednesday's Fed minutes.
Stocks and risk on, bonds off, for a third session. Strength rose to +4 of 10.5 on every chart, from +2 on indices and −1 on stocks yesterday, because fear dropped back to low at 15 and the tailwind for longs returned to +1. Bonds and stocks still move together at 0.54 to 0.58. A Treasury hedge covers little.
| Index | The line | What it means this morning |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 CFD 7,794.85 | Broken | Above the falling line from the August high. Also 3.16% over its cost line, past a 2% window. Red light, −.12R over 26 signals. |
| Nasdaq 100 CFD 31,156 | Broken | New highs. 5.29% over its cost line, more than twice its window. Red, +.01R over 115, a cost line crossed 16 times. |
| Russell 2000 CFD 2,858.8 | Broken | Out of the falling channel from mid-August, but still 1.79% under its cost line with sellers on 32% of volume. The snapback signal at the low did its job. Red. |
| Dow CFD 51,435 | Holding | Still under the falling line from the August high, and under its cost line. The One Number below. |
Better for a third session, still thin. The index panel reads Neutral, +1 of 8, from 0. 26.8% of stocks sit above their 50-day average, up from 24.7%, and 43.5% above their 200-day, up from 42.5%. The McClellan oscillator jumped to +95.7 on the index feed. But the divergence flag is still on, and three in four stocks remain under their 50-day. Lines break on that kind of tape and get retested. Nothing on the Board is an index.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RBC | Short | 🔒 Members | Yesterday's short. Rallied into the price large money paid, stalled short of it and closed red. The agreement behind it went from one frame to twoConf 9 / 2 frames · coiled 94% · +.13R over 73 signals, range +.02 to +.24 · green, holding, 15.1-point cushion | Full |
| 2 | CF | Long | 🔒 Members | Bias turned bullish on the cost line after a buy signal at last week's low. Yesterday the chart argued with itself; today it does notConf 4 / 1 frame · building 79% · +.08R over 72 signals · amber, improving, 8.8-point cushion | Half |
| 3 | CEVA | Long | 🔒 Members | Came back inside its window, with buyers on 18% of volume and two timeframes agreeing. Overnight traded below the close, so it needs a confirming close firstConf 6 / 2 frames · building 83% · +.10R over 66 signals · amber, holding | Half |
| 4 | DIS | Short | 🔒 Members | Yesterday's short. Bounced back up toward its cost line, and the range wound tighter while it didConf 5 / 1 frame · coiled 75% · +.06R over 78 signals · amber, holding, 8.4-point cushion | Half |
| 5 | REGN | Long | 🔒 Members | Fell 15% from the September high toward a cost line crossed only four times in 50 bars a side, with three bullish divergence marks on the way downConf 4 / 1 frame · +.06R over 71 signals · amber, improving, 6.8-point cushion | Half |
| 6 | HIMS | Long | 🔒 Members | Friday's long. Bias flipped back to bullish and the range is wound to 90%. Held, near the top of its windowConf 7 / 1 frame · coiled 90% · record: 11 of 20 signals, no rate · no light yet | Half |
The Dow closed Monday at 51,267.90 and the cash CFD reads 51,435 overnight, 1.64% under the price large money paid. The falling line from the August high runs roughly 300 points above that, near 52,600. A four-hour close over 52,293 is the first sign the Dow joins the other three. Until it does, this is a three-index breakout, and the bias stays bearish under a red, fading light.
You can check this against the tape yourself, which is why it sits on the free side of the gate. The RBC levels do not.
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Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut window. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and measured over the same history the settings were chosen on. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published. A short record is not a verdict on the chart, only on what can be measured yet. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. A chart with no light yet, because its record is still being built, is sized at half. The cushion is how close the light is to changing.
Readings captured Tuesday 6 October 2026 from the IVT v14.4 terminal on four-hour bars that had not yet closed: single stocks between 05:57 and 06:10 CEST, indices at 08:59 CEST, both during the overnight session. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal's published percentage distances. Index levels come from CFD feeds and will differ from your futures contract. Trendline levels are read off the chart and are approximate.
Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.