Friday Brief · October 9, 2026 Free Edition

Five On The Line. The Open Gets The Vote.

Five charts printed within half a percent of their cost line before the bell, and not one of them is a trade until the session closes a four-hour bar. Tetra Tech sits three cents above its long window on an amber light. CF Industries is the short. The number is $33.37.

Date Friday, October 9, 2026

Access Free edition, complete

Scanned 21 instruments

Captured 09:41–11:32 CEST, pre-market

Timeframe 4-hour throughout

Terminal IVT v14.4

If You Read Nothing Else

Buy	TTEK long, half size, at $33.37 or lower, once the first four-hour bar after the open closes above its cost line. Amber light, 101 finished signals.
Sell	CF short, half size, on the first four-hour close under $115.35. Range wound to 100%, light improving.
Wait	OUST long, half. The best record on the scan, but the overnight bid lifted it out of its window. Buy only back under $39.61.
Wait	MELI, RXRX, NTR and VST, all on their cost lines before the bell. A pre-market print wobbling around a line decides nothing. DG's short waits on the same close.
Skip	The indices. All four read Distribution under a red light.

Market Update

The AI Trade Cracked

A report that OpenAI's annualised revenue runs about $20 billion below what investors had pencilled in hit the chip names on Thursday. The semiconductor index fell as much as 4% intraday. Micron lost more than 5%, and Arm, Intel and Marvell more than 6%. So the Nasdaq closed down 1.25% while the Dow finished up 0.10%, and that split is drawn on the index charts below.

Yields Came Off The High The 10-year touched 5.35% and closed at 5.23%, after Fed Governor Waller said further hikes do not need to come at back-to-back meetings.
No Strike Before November Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, and Brent slipped from above $104 to about $103.

Where The Market Is

Cycle stateDistribution

Strength+0 to +1 of 10.5

Money flowingOff

Stocks joiningOn

Risk appetiteOff

Fear levelLow · 15

Tailwind for longs−1

Bonds vs stocks0.22 to 0.57

Yesterday only the overnight index charts read Distribution. This morning every chart does. Bitcoin's slide switched risk appetite off on the stock charts too, and strength fell to +1 of 10.5 from +4. Bonds and stocks move together at 0.57 on single stocks, well over the 0.35 line, but only 0.22 on the index charts. Everything on the Board is half size.

Participation

Better than the regime. The broad-market panel on the stock charts reads Confirming, +3 of 8, back from Neutral −1 on Thursday. 31.9% of stocks sit above their 50-day average, up from 28.3%, and 46.7% above their 200-day, up from 45.1%. The McClellan oscillator swung to +26.8 from −36.4. Our own breadth engine, run at 02:31 CEST, agrees: an advance/decline ratio of 1.96 and a McClellan of +26.0. One good day of breadth does not turn the regime.

The Indices Split On Chips

Index	The line	What it means this morning
S&P 500 CFD 7,804.98	Inside	1.67% over its 7,676.8 cost line, inside the 2% window. Red, improving, −.12R over 26 signals. Confirmation 1 on no frames. A fair price with nothing behind it.
Nasdaq 100 CFD 31,010.4	Extended	4.49% over its cost line, more than twice its window, after the chip sell-off. Red and fading, +.01R over 115. Crossed its line 16 times.
Dow CFD 51,321	Inside, short side	1.95% under its 52,341.7 cost line, back inside the window from 2.70% under yesterday. Red and fading, −.09R over 47.
Russell 2000 CFD 2,808.4	Lost it	Up 30.3 points from yesterday's 2,778.1 and still 3.17% under its 2,900.3 line. Sellers on 32% of the volume. Red, holding, −.02R over 37.

Before The Bell · Five On The Line, None Has Voted

Sixteen stocks on this scan carry a pre-market or overnight print. Five of them sit within half a percent of their cost line: MercadoLibre 0.12% under, Recursion 0.18% under, Nutrien 0.26% over, Vistra 0.44% under and Dollar General 0.48% under. NUAI closed Thursday under its line and printed 0.91% over it before the bell.

Price drifting across a cost line in a thin pre-market tape is not a decision. So nothing on this page triggers on a pre-market print. Every entry and every exit below is judged on the first four-hour close after the 15:30 CEST open. Same side of the line as Thursday's close: trade as written. Other side: wait for the next close.

The Board · Every Qualified Setup, Ranked

#	Ticker	Dir	Why it is on this list	Size
1	TTEK	Long	Slid from $37 to its cost line, bounced off it in Thursday's session, and is wound 88%Conf 2 / 1 frame · building 88% · +.06R over 101 signals, range −.03 to +.14 · amber, holding, 7.7-point cushion	Half
2	CF	Short	Under its cost line for a week, with the range wound as tight as the terminal measures and the light improvingConf 2 / 1 frame · building 100% · +.08R over 72 signals, range −.05 to +.20 · amber, improving, 8.8-point cushion	Half
3	OUST	Long	The best record on the scan, pulled back from $46 toward its line. The overnight bid lifted it out of the window, so the entry is a dipConf 2 / 1 frame · expanded 59% · +1.07R over 28 signals, range −.02 to +2.16 · amber, fading, 44.3-point cushion	Half
4	DG	Short	Held from Thursday. Still under its cost line before the bell, and agreement rose from one frame to twoConf 4 / 2 frames · expanded 56% · +.06R over 55 signals, range −.08 to +.21 · amber, fading, 7-point cushion	Half
5	NUAI	Short	A tier 3 sell fired on the slide from $6, with three timeframes agreeing. But it printed over its line before the bell, so it ranks fifthConf 5 / 3 frames · expanded 2% · record: 1 of 20 signals, no rate · no light yet	Half
6	COST	Short	Rallied $70 off the late-September low straight into its cost line and stalled thereConf 2 / 2 frames · expanded 47% · +.04R over 78 signals, range −.05 to +.14 · amber, holding, 5.6-point cushion	Half

#	Name	Side	Entry (distance · price)	Trigger	Get out at	Size
1	TTEK	Long	+3.09% · $33.40 band $32.40–$33.37	4h close above $32.40 after the open, filled at $33.37 or lower	$31.80	Half
2	CF	Short	−1.54% · $113.57 band $115.35–$111.89	First 4h close after the open under $115.35	$117.60	Half
3	OUST	Long	+2.79% · $39.53 band $38.46–$39.61 · overnight $40.52	Back inside the band, then a 4h close above $38.46	$37.50	Half
4	DG	Short	−0.50% · $124.25 band $124.87–$121.13	First 4h close after the open under $124.87	$126.20	Half
5	NUAI	Short	−1.13% · $4.84 band $4.90–$4.75 · pre-market $4.94	First 4h close after the open under $4.90	$5.15	Half
6	COST	Short	−0.87% · $948.22 band $956.54–$937.41 · pre-market $943.02	First 4h close after the open under $956.54	$965.00	Half

If you watch one, watch Tetra Tech. It is the only name with more than 100 finished signals whose record range sits mostly above zero, it is wound 88%, and its bounce off the line happened in Thursday's session, not in the pre-market. CF earns more per signal and is fully wound, but its short still needs its first close.

This one is free. The other four this week were not.

Every level, every execution block and all 21 terminal captures, with nothing held back and no gate anywhere on the page. Monday through Thursday the entry levels sit behind the member wall. Every Friday the whole thing ships open.

Includes the IVT Regime Playbook (PDF), the nine regime states and how to trade each.

How To Take The Top Three

1 · TTEK Tetra Tech · LONG · NASDAQ · 4h

What you are doing: buying an engineering consultancy that fell 12% from its September high and bounced off the price large money paid, once the regular session confirms the bounce.

Entry

Cost line $32.40, window top $33.37. Buy at $33.37 or lower, never above.

Trigger

The first four-hour close after the 15:30 CEST open, above $32.40. The pre-market print does not count.

Get out at

$31.80, under the $32.00 shelf it bounced from.

Evidence

Cost line crossed 7 times in 31.3 bars a side. Wound 88% and still building.

Size

Half, set by the amber light. Target $34.30, last week's high, then $37.00, the September top.

Tetra Tech 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +3.09 percent against a 3 percent window, dev filter fail by 0.09 points, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, building compression at 88 percent, amber trend light at half size holding with a 7.7 point cushion, expectancy +.06R over 101 resolved signals with range -.03 to +.14, mixed anchor hold at 31.3 bars a side with 7 crossings, price 33.40 with overnight 33.40. — **TTEK · 4h.** The bounce off the cost line came in Thursday's regular session.

2 · CF CF Industries · SHORT · NYSE · 4h

What you are doing: selling a fertiliser maker that lost its cost line a week ago, on a fully wound range, if the session closes its first bar on the short side.

Entry

Cost line $115.35, window down to $111.89. Sell on the trigger, never below $111.89.

Trigger

The first four-hour close after the open, under $115.35. Overnight it traded at $113.54, 1.57% under.

Get out at

$117.60, a four-hour close back over the September volume shelf.

Evidence

The swing still reads bull, which keeps confirmation at 2. Cost line crossed 13 times.

Size

Half. Target $111.90, last week's low, then $108.80, the floor of the range box.

CF Industries 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.54 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open with next cross qualifying, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, building compression at 100 percent, amber trend light at half size improving with an 8.8 point cushion, expectancy +.08R over 72 resolved signals with range -.05 to +.20, choppy anchor hold with 13 crossings, price 113.57 with overnight 113.54. — **CF · 4h.** Under the line for a week, compression at 100%.

3 · OUST Ouster · LONG · NASDAQ · 4h

What you are doing: buying the scan's best record on a pullback to the price large money paid, not at the overnight price.

Entry

Cost line $38.46, window top $39.61. Thursday closed at $39.53, inside. Overnight traded $40.52, outside.

Trigger

Price back at or under $39.61, then a four-hour close above $38.46.

Get out at

$37.50, under the late-September breakout bar.

Evidence

Cost line crossed 11 times in 20.8 bars a side. The light is fading.

Size

Half. Target $43.50, the line that capped the last two rallies, then $46.00, this week's high.

Ouster 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +2.79 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open with next cross qualifying, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 59 percent, high volatility tier, amber trend light at half size fading with a 44.3 point cushion, expectancy +1.07R over 28 resolved signals with range -.02 to +2.16, mixed anchor hold with 11 crossings, price 39.53 with overnight 40.52. — **OUST · 4h.** Back toward its line from $46. Overnight bid it out of the window.

The One Number

Tetra Tech · Window Top

$33.37

Tetra Tech closed Thursday at $33.40, three cents over the top of its entry window, and printed the same before the bell. At $33.37 or lower the long qualifies, as long as the first four-hour close after the open holds above the cost line. A close under $31.80 takes it off the Board.

Looked At And Left Alone

Name	Distance from cost	Comes back at	Why it is not a trade
ISRG	−2.48%	Window open, $413.46 edge	Coiled 84% with confirmation 5, but red and fading, −.01R over 25. It is rallying into its $426.25 line from below. Selling before it rejects sells the rally.
VST	−2.27%, pre −0.44%	Window open	Tier 3 sell fired at the $170 spike. Red, holding, −.01R over 39. Pre-market climbed back to the $159.81 line.
RXRX	−1.67%, pre −0.18%	Window open	Confirmation 4 on one frame, 9 of 20 signals. Pre-market sits on the $4.02 line. The close decides.
MELI	−0.21%, pre −0.12%	Window open	On its $1,859.54 line with a red, fading light, −.12R over 43 and a cushion of −11.1 points.
NTR	+0.27%, pre +0.26%	Window open	Wound 100% on its $69.72 line, confirmation 4. Red, holding, −.02R over 26.
SPGI	−1.94%	Window open, $398.38 edge	Rallying into its $410.70 line from below. Red, holding, −.12R over 71.
SPOT	+2.66%	Window open, $528.38 edge	Near the top of its window on confirmation 2, with 15 of 20 signals. Wait for a dip toward $512.99.
JPM	+2.91%	$328.52	Out of its window again after one day inside. Red, fading, .00R over 95. Earnings are marked for next week.
BRK.B	+2.99%	$506.21	Broke out of a 95% coil and ran past its window. Red, fading, +.03R over 83, line crossed 15 times.
BITB	+1.97%, overnight +2.91%	Window open	Confirmation 0. Three of 20 signals. Nothing agrees.
WHEAT	−1.74%	Window open, 687.38 edge	Red, holding, −.05R over 87. Four sell signals since late September and no follow-through.

The Rest Of The Scan

S&P 500 cash CFD 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +1.67 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 1 on no timeframes, building compression at 78 percent, Cantillon flow distribution with composite +0 of 10.5, VIX 15 low fear, bond-equity correlation 0.22, red trend light improving, expectancy -.12R over 26 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 0 crossings, price 7,804.98. — **SP500 · 4h.** Inside its window, red light, confirmation 1.

Nasdaq 100 cash CFD 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +4.49 percent against a 2 percent window, dev filter fail, confirmation score -1 on no timeframes, compression expanded at 45 percent, red trend light fading, expectancy +.01R over 115 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold with 16 crossings, price 31,010.4. — **NAS100 · 4h.** Still more than twice its window above cost after the chip hit.

Dow Jones 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.95 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 44 percent, red trend light fading, expectancy -.09R over 47 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 3 crossings, price 51,321. — **US30 · 4h.** Back inside its short window. Red light.

RUSSELL · 4h. Bounced 30 points, still 3.17% under cost with sellers on the volume.

Dollar General 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.5 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 4 across two timeframes, compression expanded at 56 percent, amber trend light at half size fading with a 7 point cushion, expectancy +.06R over 55 resolved signals with range -.08 to +.21, choppy anchor hold with 20 crossings, price 124.25 with overnight 124.27. — **DG · 4h.** Thursday's short, still just under the line before the bell.

New Era Energy and Digital 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.13 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 5 across three timeframes, tier 3 sell signal, compression expanded at 2 percent, trend light unproven with 1 of 20 signals needed, trending anchor hold with 1 crossing, price 4.84 with pre-market 4.94. — **NUAI · 4h.** Tier 3 sell on three frames. Pre-market back over the line.

Costco 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.87 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 2 across two timeframes, compression expanded at 47 percent, amber trend light at half size holding with a 5.6 point cushion, expectancy +.04R over 78 resolved signals with range -.05 to +.14, choppy anchor hold with 13 crossings, price 948.22 with overnight 943.02. — **COST · 4h.** Ran into its cost line from below and stalled.

Intuitive Surgical 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -2.48 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 5 on one timeframe, coiled at 84 percent compression, red trend light fading, expectancy -.01R over 25 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 0 crossings, price 415.68 with pre-market 415.78. — **ISRG · 4h.** Coiled 84% under a red light, rallying into cost from below.

Vistra 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -2.27 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 2 across two timeframes, tier 3 sell signal, compression expanded at 0 percent, red trend light holding, expectancy -.01R over 39 resolved signals, trending anchor hold with 4 crossings, price 156.18 with pre-market 159.10. — **VST · 4h.** Sell signal at the spike, pre-market back on the line.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.67 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 4 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 4 percent, trend light unproven with 9 of 20 signals needed, trending anchor hold with 4 crossings, price 3.95 with pre-market 4.01. — **RXRX · 4h.** Pre-market sitting on the cost line.

MercadoLibre 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -0.21 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 0 percent, red trend light fading with a -11.1 point cushion, expectancy -.12R over 43 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold with 14 crossings, price 1,855.63 with overnight 1,857.35. — **MELI · 4h.** On the line, nothing behind it.

Nutrien 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +0.27 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 4 on one timeframe, building compression at 100 percent, red trend light holding, expectancy -.02R over 26 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 10 crossings, price 69.91 with overnight 69.90. — **NTR · 4h.** Fully wound on its line. Red light.

S&P Global 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.94 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 65 percent, red trend light holding with a -12.1 point cushion, expectancy -.12R over 71 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold, price 402.73 with overnight 403.75. — **SPGI · 4h.** Climbing back toward cost under a red light.

Spotify 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +2.66 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 2 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 58 percent, trend light unproven with 15 of 20 signals needed, mixed anchor hold with 7 crossings, price 526.64 with overnight 526.95. — **SPOT · 4h.** Top of its window. Wait for the dip.

JPMorgan Chase 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +2.91 percent against a 2 percent window, dev filter fail, confirmation score 4 across two timeframes, compression expanded at 51 percent, red trend light fading, expectancy .00R over 95 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 6 crossings, price 331.45 with overnight 331.82. — **JPM · 4h.** Out of the window again, earnings next week.

Berkshire Hathaway class B 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +2.99 percent against a 2 percent window, dev filter fail, confirmation score 7 across three timeframes, coiled up at 68 percent with a 95 percent coil breakout box, red trend light fading, expectancy +.03R over 83 resolved signals, choppy anchor hold with 15 crossings, price 511.12 with overnight 510.01. — **BRK.B · 4h.** Broke out of its coil, past the window, red light.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF 4-hour IVT chart: bullish bias, VWAP deviation +1.97 percent inside a 3 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 0 on one timeframe, compression expanded at 65 percent, trend light unproven with 3 of 20 signals needed, trending anchor hold with 5 crossings, price 44.34 with overnight 44.75. — **BITB · 4h.** Bitcoin's slide toward the line. Confirmation 0.

Wheat cash contract 4-hour IVT chart: bearish bias, VWAP deviation -1.74 percent inside a 2 percent window, dev filter open, confirmation score 4 on one timeframe, building compression at 70 percent, bond-equity correlation 0.43, red trend light holding, expectancy -.05R over 87 resolved signals, mixed anchor hold with 9 crossings, price 689.2. — **WHEAT · 4h.** Sell signals without follow-through, red light.

What The Words Mean

Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut window. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and measured over the same history the settings were chosen on. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published. A short record is not a verdict on the chart, only on what can be measured yet. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. A chart with no light yet, because its record is still being built, is sized at half.

Readings captured Friday 9 October 2026 between 09:41 and 11:32 CEST from the IVT v14.4 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. Prices marked pre-market or overnight are extended-hours prints. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal's published percentage distances. Index levels are CFD feeds and differ from the cash index.

Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one.

Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.