Thirteen charts this morning. Two carry a light that permits full size, BCE on the short side and EnerSys on the long. IBM prints the highest confirmation anywhere in the scan, nine readings across two timeframes, and its light still only allows half. Meta is the sharper story. Its entry window is shut by five hundredths of a percentage point, which puts the reopening level thirty-two cents under this morning’s print, and it is the only shut window here sitting behind a green light. The regime itself returns two different answers depending on which clock you read it from.
US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after the Revolutionary Guard went at a US warship twice in two days. Tehran answered by attacking ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz and firing ballistic missiles at the Al-Azraq base in Jordan, where air defences intercepted eighteen of twenty and nobody was hurt. Brent settled at $101.21, its first trip above a hundred dollars since July and roughly a twenty-dollar round trip from where it sat in early August. The ten-year finished at 4.832%. That is why the money layer reads switched off in the panel below.
The scan returns two regime readings this morning and the gap between them is the read. On the twenty-four-hour index feeds the framework returns full risk-off at −3 of 10.5 with money, equities and risk appetite all switched off. On the US cash-session names it returns speculative at −1 of 10.5 with risk appetite switched back on. Same engine, same three proxies, different bar clock, and the index reading is the more defensive of the two because its last closed bar is the more recent. One structural caveat governs every row below. Five of the thirteen charts carry a red light that blocks a new entry whatever the confirmation reads, and four of those five are the indices.
Breadth is printed today because it contradicts the regime reading rather than confirming it. Across the coverage universe the panel returns breadth recovery, with participation improving against price.
| Advancing | Adv / dec ratio | Cumulative line | Oscillator | Summation | Over 50-day | Over 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 1.24 | +956 | +8.5 | +11,704 | 55.4% | 67.6% |
Improving participation under a risk-off headline score is the accumulation shape, and it is the whole argument for keeping two longs on a board where the money layer is off and oil is bid. It does not override a single light below.
Seven rows qualify. Two carry full size, four carry half, and the seventh is published with no size at all because its record is eight signals into the twenty it needs before a rate can be printed. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close in the trade’s direction, never a touch, and the get-out is always a close back through the cost line. Six instruments sit in Watch and Avoid, four of them the indices, and one of those six is the most interesting chart in the brief.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | What the terminal reads | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BCE BCE Inc | Short | 🔒 Members | The tightest coil in the scan paired with the widest timeframe agreement here, on a light that still permits full size. Nothing else on this board has all three at once.Record +.16R on 144 signals · window open, cross still pending · eight readings across three timeframes · compression coiled down at 98% · cost lines diverged 36% · snapback reset 66 bars ago · light GREEN, fading · anchor choppy, 23 crossings | Full |
| 2 | ENS EnerSys | Long | 🔒 Members | Best result per signal of anything publishable in this brief, on the largest cushion in the scan by a wide margin, and the only full-size row pointing up. Compression is the weak part at 67% and expanding.Record +.17R on 124 signals · window open, cross still pending · five readings across two timeframes · compression expanded at 67% · buyers ahead by 8%, read as neutral · light GREEN, holding, 17.2-point cushion · anchor trending, zero crossings in 250 bars a side | Full |
| 3 | IBM IBM | Short | 🔒 Members | Highest confirmation in the whole scan and the longest sample of any sized row, on a chart that rallied 1.4% yesterday straight into the level the sellers are defending. The light is amber and improving, which is the only reason it is not first.Record +.04R on 151 signals · window open, cross still pending · nine readings across two timeframes · compression coiled at 74% · sellers dominant by 16% · cost lines diverged 2% · light AMBER, improving, 4.1-point cushion · anchor trending, 4 crossings | Half |
| 4 | CMI Cummins | Short | 🔒 Members | Strongest seller dominance anywhere in the brief, on the row that carried yesterday’s top ranking and has since drifted further under its cost line rather than back to it.Record +.08R on 136 signals · window open, cross still pending · five readings across two timeframes · compression building at 80% · sellers dominant by 20%, the highest here · light AMBER, holding, 6.9-point cushion · anchor trending, 5 crossings | Half |
| 5 | DIS Walt Disney | Short | 🔒 Members | A clean structural short with the freshest snapback reset of any sized row at 65 bars, on the narrowest entry band on the board. Confirmation comes from one timeframe only, which caps it here.Record +.07R on 137 signals · window open, cross still pending · five readings across one timeframe · compression building at 69% · sellers ahead by 7%, read as neutral · snapback reset 65 bars ago · light AMBER, holding, 6.1-point cushion · anchor trending, 4 crossings | Half |
| 6 | GOOG Alphabet | Long | 🔒 Members | Second-tightest coil in the brief and the only long besides EnerSys, sitting under yesterday’s low with the direction still published up. The record behind it is the thinnest of the six sized rows.Record +.06R on 52 signals · window open, cross still pending · six readings across one timeframe · compression coiled at 84% · buyers ahead by 12%, read as neutral · light AMBER, fading, 4.7-point cushion · anchor trending, zero crossings in 250 bars a side | Half |
| 7 | CRWV CoreWeave | Short | 🔒 Members | The terminal’s own coiled-spring label and the tightest institutional cluster in the scan at 91%, on a record eight signals into the twenty it needs. No rate is published under that floor and no size goes on a chart without one.Record 8 of 20 signals needed, no rate published · window open, cross still pending · seven readings across two timeframes · terminal label COILED SPRING, compression coiled at 76% · convergence active at 91%, the highest here · light UNPROVEN, sample still building · anchor choppy, 14 crossings | No size |
If you watch one, watch BCE. EnerSys pays fractionally more per signal and carries a cushion five times the size, and on a quieter morning that is the row you take. BCE wins today on alignment. It is the only chart in this scan where maximum compression, agreement across three separate timeframes and a light that permits full size all point the same way at once. EnerSys has the record and the cushion but its range is expanding, not winding.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete September 10, 2026 brief: all seven rows with their entry bands, triggers and get-outs, the cost lines under BCE’s 98% coil and EnerSys’ 17.2-point cushion, IBM’s nine-reading short and the level it is rallying into, the exact price that reopens Meta’s window, the six instruments in Watch and Avoid with their reset zones, and all thirteen terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it, and that distance is what "deviation" means. Buy near it and you are buying where they bought. Buy far above it and you are handing them the profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. The width comes from the instrument's own volatility tier: two percent for indices and large caps, three percent for mid-range names, three to five for the high-volatility list. Open means you are inside it and waiting on the cross. Qualified means the cross has already printed inside it. Shut means the move has run and you wait for a pullback or a fresh coil. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close, in the trade's direction, never a touch. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Building means it is loading. Coiled means it is nearly full, and coiled spring is the terminal's own label for the tightest version. High compression means the next move should be a big one, says nothing about direction, and never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better, and two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. A negative score means the readings disagree with the stated bias. Signal tier · the terminal's own label for a setup that has cleared its full checklist rather than most of it. It is awarded rarely and it is not a permission to trade on its own. Buyer or seller dominance · which side is actually transacting at the most-traded price, as a percentage skew. Neutral means the two sides are matched and the volume is telling you nothing about direction. Snapback reset · the terminal's oversold or overbought extreme, where price pushed through the second deviation band and reclaimed it. The bar count since the last one is how fresh the current structure is. Convergence · how tightly the separate institutional cost lines have clustered. High convergence means several cohorts of large money paid roughly the same price, so the line underneath is thicker than usual. Diverged means they did not, and there is no thick line to lean on. Anchor hold · how many bars price spends on each side of the cost line before crossing back, and how many times it has crossed. Trending means it picks a side and stays. Choppy means it does not, and a choppy anchor is why a name can reverse its published direction inside a week. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and never published at all below 20 of them. It is in-sample, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Trend light and cushion · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks, and unproven means the sample is still being built. The cushion is how far the light is from changing, and a negative cushion means it has already changed against you. Strength score · the framework's aggregate regime reading out of 10.5, built from the money, equity and risk layers plus the macro bonus. Higher means more of the cross-asset structure is aligned behind risk. It sets the backdrop and it never overrides an individual chart's light.
One capture window, all thirteen charts. Every reading in this brief was taken from the IVT v14 terminal this morning, Thursday 10 September 2026, between 06:38 and 07:05 CEST, on the four-hour timeframe throughout. There is no stale half in today’s brief and no split capture time.
Overnight prints are not bars. Pre-hour marks are quotes, not completed four-hour candles, and no entry band, trigger or get-out in this brief resolves on one. Every level here resolves on a four-hour close and nothing else. Where a print is worth weighing before the session, it is stated inside the row itself rather than collected here.
The regime returns two readings today and both are printed. Index levels come from broker CFD feeds that trade around the clock, so their last closed four-hour bar is more recent than the one the US cash names resolve on. The same regime engine reading the same three proxies therefore returns full risk-off at −3 of 10.5 on the index feeds and speculative at −1 of 10.5 on the names. The two are not directly comparable and neither is corrected to match the other. Index levels will also differ from your own index or futures contract.
Cost lines quoted throughout are derived from the deviation percentages the terminal publishes, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point. Trigger levels are set at the nearest structural shelf and are ours, not the terminal’s.
Records are in-sample, calculated over the same history the settings were chosen on, so they describe the past and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals and the sample size is printed beside every one. CoreWeave is eight signals into the twenty it needs, so it carries a raw count instead of a rate and no size.
Breadth is published today because it contradicts the regime score rather than confirming it. The panel measures the Cantillon coverage universe, not the full exchange, and it was generated after yesterday’s close.
Market Update figures are sourced from primary releases and wire reporting. Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.