The long end broke five into a Federal Reserve decision, the regime is off across all three layers, and the entire scan returns exactly one full-size permission. It belongs to BCE, a Canadian telecom, which also pays more per signal than anything else here and is the only chart in the brief whose result band never touches zero. Ford is second on the widest timeframe agreement anywhere and the only live institutional cluster in the scan. The number that decides the session sits seventy points under this morning’s S&P print.
The ten-year Treasury touched 4.999% on Monday, its highest since October 2023, and pushed through it this morning to the highest level since 2007. The Federal Reserve announces tomorrow afternoon, and the market prices a quarter-point increase rather than a cut at better than four-in-five odds, which would take the target range from 3.50 to 3.75% up to 3.75 to 4.00% and make it the first hike since July 2023. A five-handle on the long end is the discount rate every multiple in this scan is priced against. It is also why the terminal has the macro layer pinned at its floor and why nothing on the board below draws size from the regime.
Full risk-off at −4 of 10.5 with money, equities and risk appetite all switched off, so no row below is sized off the regime and every one of them is a chart trade taken against it. The two clocks split again today, and the other way from Friday: the ten US names return −4 while the four index feeds and gold return −3, and the bonds-versus-stocks reading splits with them, 0.38 on the names against 0.62 on the index feeds. One disagreement governs everything underneath, and it is not in the score. Fear is not participating. The volatility layer sits in its neutral band on the morning the long end printed a five-handle a day before a Fed decision, and that gap between what bonds are doing and what options are charging is the loudest thing on this page.
Breadth runs today because the panel’s own label argues with its own short-term line. It returns breadth recovery, and the structural line earned that: participation above the 200-day improved to 71.6%, the best reading of the last three sessions. The short-term line did the opposite. Above the 50-day handed back Friday’s entire gain, from 58.1% to 51.4%, which is precisely where it sat on Thursday.
| Advancing | Adv / dec ratio | Cumulative line | Oscillator | Summation | Over 50-day | Over 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 1.06 | +830 | −7.5 | +11,696 | 51.4% | 71.6% |
A 1.06 advance-decline ratio is a coin flip, and the oscillator went from −0.4 to −7.5 in one session. So Monday’s selling was broad enough to stall the short-term line and nowhere near deep enough to reach the structural one. That is the honest version of a recovery label. The panel was generated at Monday’s close, 23:15 UTC, so it describes a session that has already resolved and says nothing about this morning. It reopens no shut window, it turns no red light green, and it changes no size on the board below.
Fifteen instruments, ranked. One carries a full size, three carry a half, eleven carry nothing at all. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close in the trade’s direction, never a touch, and the get-out is always a close back through the cost line. The order below is not the order of loudest charts, and today the two lists barely overlap.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | What the terminal reads | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BCE BCE Inc | Short | 🔒 Members | The only green light in the brief and therefore the only full size. It also pays the most per signal here and it is the one chart whose result band sits entirely above zero, so the range of outcomes behind it never includes a loss. Four clocks agree with the direction and the range is nearly wound.Record +.14R on 92 signals, band +.06R to +.21R · five readings across four timeframes · compression coiled down at 81% · window open, cross still pending · snapback reset 72 bars ago, the second freshest here · light GREEN, full size, holding · cost lines diverged 55% · anchor choppy, 23 crossings | Full |
| 2 | F Ford Motor | Short | 🔒 Members | The widest timeframe agreement in the scan, four clocks at the top confirmation score, and the only chart here where the institutional cost lines are actively clustered rather than spread out. Flat on the session while everything around it moved, which is what a name being distributed quietly looks like.Record +.07R on 65 signals · five readings across four timeframes · convergence ACTIVE at 79%, the only live cluster here · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 29% · sellers ahead by 13%, read as neutral · light AMBER, holding, 7.7-point cushion · anchor choppy, 26 crossings, the weakest structure on the board | Half |
| 3 | NVDA Nvidia | Long | 🔒 Members | Second-best result per signal here and by far the widest cushion in the brief, on the only name whose layer the terminal calls the leader. The case against is in the same panel: confirmation is zero, the cost lines are the most scattered on the board, and it has just been re-rated on a narrative rather than a print.Record +.12R on 40 signals · zero readings across two timeframes · cost lines diverged 67%, the widest here · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 56% · snapback reset 3,938 bars ago, the stalest in the brief · light AMBER, holding, 12.4-point cushion, the widest here · anchor trending, 2 crossings | Half |
| 4 | IBM IBM | Long | 🔒 Members | Deepest sample on the page, and the record is positive across it. Four clocks are looking at it but only one is agreeing, and the volume at the most-traded price runs against the direction by 16%, which is the second-worst disagreement in the scan. A half on evidence of persistence, not on evidence of today.Record +.04R on 98 signals, the deepest sample here · one reading across four timeframes · sellers dominant by 16% · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 57% · cost lines diverged 24% · snapback reset 1,746 bars ago · light AMBER, holding, 5.9-point cushion · anchor trending, 5 crossings | Half |
| 5 | HIMS Hims & Hers Health | Watch | 🔒 Members | The loudest chart in the brief and it carries nothing. Compression reads 99%, one point off the terminal’s ceiling, the entry window has already qualified rather than merely being open, and five readings agree across three clocks. The light is still building its sample, and no size goes on a chart without a published rate.Record 11 of the 20 signals needed, no rate published, 13 fired and 2 still open · compression building at 99%, the tightest in the brief · five readings across three timeframes · window QUALIFIED, cross already printed · sellers ahead by 8%, read as neutral · snapback reset 279 bars ago · light UNPROVEN, sample still building · anchor choppy, 14 crossings | No size |
| 6 | CECO CECO Environmental | Watch | 🔒 Members | The only signal tier awarded today, and the highest one, on five agreeing clocks with the heaviest one-sided volume anywhere in the scan. Down 4.26% on the session. Its light is red with the thinnest cushion in the brief, two tenths of a point, so this is the permission most likely to flip on the next bar.Record .00R on 47 signals, band −.20R to +.20R · signal tier 3 awarded, the only tier today · two readings across five timeframes, the widest agreement here · window QUALIFIED, cross already printed · sellers dominant by 22%, the heaviest here · compression expanded at 51% · light RED, fading, cushion −0.2 points, the thinnest here · anchor choppy, 17 crossings | No size |
| 7 | US30 Dow cash | Watch | 🔒 Members | The only index with a qualified window and a signal tier, and the only one winding rather than expanding. Off 0.22% and sitting a fraction under its cost line, which is the tightest any index is to its anchor this morning. The light is red and fading, so the setup is complete and unpermitted.Record −.10R on 46 signals · signal tier 2 awarded · three readings across three timeframes · window QUALIFIED, cross already printed · compression building at 72%, second tightest here · buyers ahead by 4%, read as neutral · light RED, fading, cushion −9.9 points · anchor trending, 3 crossings | No size |
| 8 | NAS100 US 100 cash | Watch | 🔒 Members | Where Monday’s damage landed, and still the only red light on the page carrying a positive cushion, which makes it the index closest to turning green. Its record is the only non-negative one among the four indices and it sits on the deepest index sample here. Readings disagree with the stated direction.Record +.01R on 114 signals, the deepest index sample · minus two readings across two timeframes, disagreeing with the stated direction · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 39% · buyers ahead by 10%, read as neutral · cost lines diverged 31% · light RED, holding, cushion +1.5 points, the only positive red here · anchor choppy, 22 crossings | No size |
| 9 | XAUUSD Gold spot | Avoid | 🔒 Members | Deepest sample in the whole brief and the record is still flat across it, which is what a chart with no edge in either direction looks like. Published direction is up, price is down on the session and sitting under last week’s low. The cushion is thin enough that the light can change either way.Record −.02R on 127 signals, the deepest sample in the brief · minus two readings across one timeframe, disagreeing with the stated direction · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 54% · cost lines diverged 17% · snapback reset 322 bars ago · light RED, fading, cushion −2.6 points · anchor mixed, 9 crossings | No size |
| 10 | ROK Rockwell Automation | Avoid | 🔒 Members | Up 0.11% and the second-most compressed single name here, which is the whole of the bull case. Against it: a negative record on a sample deep enough to trust, two readings on two clocks, and a red light eleven points from changing in the wrong direction. Compression without permission is not a setup.Record −.10R on 66 signals · two readings across two timeframes · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 62% · buyers ahead by 1%, read as neutral · snapback reset 718 bars ago · light RED, holding, cushion −11.1 points · anchor trending, 2 crossings | No size |
| 11 | SPGI S&P Global | Avoid | 🔒 Members | The loosest range in the brief at 20%, so there is no stored energy here at all, and the readings actively disagree with the published direction. Its result band stops just short of positive, which is a chart that has been slightly wrong for 69 signals rather than badly wrong once.Record −.12R on 69 signals, band −.25R to +.01R · minus two readings across one timeframe, disagreeing with the stated direction · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 20%, the loosest here · cost lines diverged 39% · light RED, holding, cushion −12.1 points · anchor mixed, 11 crossings | No size |
| 12 | SP500 S&P 500 cash | Avoid | 🔒 Members | Second day running as the weakest permission on the page and for the same reasons: worst cushion in the brief, thinnest publishable sample, and readings that contradict its own published direction. The light is improving, which is the one thing that has changed. The level underneath it is the one number, further down.Record −.12R on 26 signals, the thinnest publishable sample here · minus two readings across one timeframe, disagreeing with the stated direction · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 38% · buyers ahead by 6%, read as neutral · light RED, improving, cushion −12.2 points, the worst here · anchor trending, 4 crossings | No size |
| 13 | VFF Village Farms Intl | Watch | 🔒 Members | Three signals short of a publishable rate, down 3.89% on the session, and the volume at the most-traded price runs 17% against the published direction. Closest chart in the brief to earning a light, and until it does the size is zero regardless of how the panel reads.Record 17 of the 20 signals needed, no rate published, 17 fired and none open · minus two readings across two timeframes, disagreeing with the stated direction · window open, cross still pending · compression expanded at 70% · sellers dominant by 17% · light UNPROVEN, sample still building · anchor trending, 5 crossings | No size |
| 14 | RUSSELL Russell 2000 cash | Avoid | 🔒 Members | One of two shut windows in the brief. Price has fallen far enough under its cost line to sit outside the entry band entirely, which ends the conversation whatever the rest of the panel says. Small caps are also the furthest of the four indices from their anchor this morning, in either direction.Record −.05R on 35 signals · window SHUT, price outside the band · one reading across one timeframe · compression building at 66% · sellers ahead by 15%, read as neutral · snapback reset 744 bars ago · light RED, holding, cushion −5.7 points · anchor mixed, 7 crossings | No size |
| 15 | CRCL Circle Internet Group | Avoid | 🔒 Members | Last because it is the furthest any chart here sits from the price large money paid, by a multiple of its own entry band. Up 1.31% and gapped well above Monday’s close. This is the one row where the instruction is not watch and wait, it is do not touch until it comes back.Record 2 of the 20 signals needed, no rate published · window SHUT, price more than double the band width outside it · zero readings across one timeframe · compression expanded at 55% · sellers ahead by 5%, read as neutral · cost lines diverged 40% · light UNPROVEN, sample still building · anchor mixed, 11 crossings | No size |
If you watch one, watch BCE. Ford has the same confirmation score on the same number of clocks and a deeper sample, 65 signals against 92 for BCE, so the two are close on evidence. BCE wins on the two things that decide a size. It is the only green light in the brief, which is the difference between a full position and a half. And its result band runs +.06R to +.21R, so the worst outcome in the distribution behind it is still a gain, where Ford’s band crosses zero. One more thing separates them and it is not in either record: BCE’s last oversold extreme was 72 bars ago and Ford’s was 1,051. One of those charts has recently been wrung out and the other has not been near an extreme in over a year.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete September 15, 2026 brief: all fifteen rows with their cost lines, windows, triggers and get-outs, the band BCE’s only full size is priced inside, the shelf Ford’s trigger sits under, the one number seventy points below this morning’s S&P print, the eleven instruments in Watch and Avoid with their reset zones, and all fifteen terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it, and that distance is what "deviation" means. Buy near it and you are buying where they bought. Buy far above it and you are handing them the profit. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. The width comes from the instrument's own volatility tier: two percent for indices and large caps, three percent for mid-range names, three to five for the high-volatility list. Open means you are inside it and waiting on the cross. Qualified means the cross has already printed inside it. Shut means the move has run and you wait for a pullback or a fresh coil. Every trigger in this brief is a four-hour close, in the trade's direction, never a touch. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Building means it is loading. Coiled means it is nearly full, and coiled spring is the terminal's own label for the tightest version. High compression means the next move should be a big one, says nothing about direction, and never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better, and two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. A negative score means the readings disagree with the stated bias. Signal tier · the terminal's own label for a setup that has cleared its full checklist rather than most of it. It is awarded rarely and it is not a permission to trade on its own. Buyer or seller dominance · which side is actually transacting at the most-traded price, as a percentage skew. Neutral means the two sides are matched and the volume is telling you nothing about direction. Snapback reset · the terminal's oversold or overbought extreme, where price pushed through the second deviation band and reclaimed it. The bar count since the last one is how fresh the current structure is. Convergence · how tightly the separate institutional cost lines have clustered. Active means several cohorts of large money paid roughly the same price, so the line underneath is thicker than usual. Diverged means they did not, and there is no thick line to lean on. Anchor hold · how many bars price spends on each side of the cost line before crossing back, and how many times it has crossed. Trending means it picks a side and stays. Choppy means it does not, and a choppy anchor is why a name can reverse its published direction inside a week. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Where a band is quoted alongside it, that is the range the result is measured within. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it, and never published at all below 20 of them. It is in-sample, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Trend light and cushion · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks, and unproven means the sample is still being built. The cushion is how far the light is from changing, and a negative cushion means it has already changed against you. Strength score · the framework's aggregate regime reading out of 10.5, built from the money, equity and risk layers plus the macro bonus. Higher means more of the cross-asset structure is aligned behind risk. It sets the backdrop and it never overrides an individual chart's light.
One capture window, all fifteen charts. Every reading in this brief was taken from the IVT v14.4 terminal this morning, Tuesday 15 September 2026, between 09:11 and 09:44 CEST, on the four-hour timeframe throughout. There is no stale half in today’s brief and no split capture time.
Overnight and pre-market prints are not bars. Pre-hour marks are quotes, not completed four-hour candles, and no cost line, window, trigger or get-out in this brief resolves on one. Every level here resolves on a four-hour close and nothing else. This matters most on CRCL today, where the pre-market quote sits nearly five points above Monday’s close, and on NVDA, where the quote sits above the last print.
The regime returns two readings today. The ten US single names return full risk-off at −4 of 10.5 and the four index feeds plus gold return −3, because index CFD feeds trade around the clock and their last closed four-hour bar is more recent than the one the US cash names resolved on. The bonds-versus-stocks reading splits the same way, 0.38 against 0.62. Index levels will still differ from your own index or futures contract.
Cost lines quoted throughout are derived from the deviation percentages the terminal publishes, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point. Trigger levels are set at the nearest structural shelf and are ours, not the terminal’s.
Records are in-sample, calculated over the same history the settings were chosen on, so they describe the past and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals and the sample size is printed beside every one. Three charts sit under that floor today and carry raw counts instead of rates: HIMS at eleven signals, VFF at seventeen, CRCL at two. None of the three carries a size.
Breadth was measured at Monday’s close. The panel is published today because its label argues with its own short-term line rather than confirming it, but it was generated at 23:15 UTC on 14 September and it measures the Cantillon coverage universe rather than the full exchange. It describes Monday and it says nothing about this morning.
Market Update figures are sourced from primary releases and wire reporting. Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.