The Fed decides at 20:00 CEST with the ten-year at five percent. One full size today: sell Qualcomm, but only if Tuesday’s rally carries it back up to the price large money paid. Nvidia and IBM are half-size buys on a dip, not on this morning’s quote. The S&P line that decides the session is 7,533.
The Federal Reserve announces at 20:00 CEST and futures price a quarter-point hike at better than nine-in-ten, which would lift the target range to 3.75 to 4.00% and make it the first increase since July 2023. The ten-year touched 5.045% on Tuesday, its highest since 2007, and the S&P 500 fell 0.45% for a sixth loss in seven sessions. August retail sales land at 14:30 CEST. The dot plot is the print that reprices every chart below.
Full risk-off with money, equities and risk appetite all switched off, so every size on the board is a chart trade taken against the regime. The one caveat: the fear layer still sits in its neutral band on the day of a hike.
| Book | Reading | What it means this morning |
|---|---|---|
| US single names 14 charts | −3 of 10.5 · no layer leading · bonds vs stocks 0.42 | Four of the five sized rows sit in this book. The score removes no size beyond what each light already sets. |
| Index and metals feeds 7 charts | −4 of 10.5 · equities named leader · bonds vs stocks 0.57, Russell 0.49 | One point weaker, because these feeds trade around the clock and resolved on a later bar. No index carries a size today. Gold is the one half here. |
Breadth runs today because the label reads breadth recovery and every line underneath it got worse. Generated at Tuesday’s close, 23:01 UTC.
| Advancing | Adv / dec ratio | Cumulative line | Oscillator | Summation | Over 50-day | Over 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 1.00 | +830 | −14.9 | +11,681 | 50.0% | 68.9% |
Against Monday’s panel the oscillator doubled its deficit from −7.5, the 200-day share fell from 71.6% to 68.9%, and the 50-day share lost its majority at exactly half. No size on the board changes for it.
Twenty-one charts. One full size, four halves, sixteen with nothing. Every entry today sits in the slice of the band nearest the cost line. The fill we want is a four-hour bar that wicks into that slice and closes back out in the trade’s direction. A price in the middle of the band is not an entry, and neither is a pre-market quote.
| # | Name | Side | Entry · trigger · get out | What the terminal reads | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QCOM Qualcomm | Short | 🔒 Members | The only green light in the brief, so the only full size, and the only result band here that never dips below zero. Tuesday’s rally carried price back up toward a falling cost line from underneath. That is where a short gets sold, not where it gets chased.Record +.10R on 103 signals, band +.01R to +.20R · zero readings across three timeframes · window open, cross still pending · light GREEN, full size, fading, 11.4-point cushion · cost lines diverged 40% · compression expanded at 37% · anchor mixed, 6 crossings | Full |
| 2 | NVDA Nvidia | Long | 🔒 Members | Best result per signal on the page and the widest cushion in the brief. Against it: confirmation runs two readings against the direction on one clock, and the cost lines are scattered. A half, and only on a dip that holds.Record +.12R on 40 signals, band −.04R to +.28R · minus two readings across one timeframe · window open, cross still pending · light AMBER, half, holding, 12.4-point cushion · cost lines diverged 55% · compression expanded at 33% · anchor trending | Half |
| 3 | DG Dollar General | Short | 🔒 Members | The only signal tier among the sized rows. The pre-market quote reclaimed the line overnight, so the short is back to needing a close under it. Its anchor is the choppiest on the board.Record +.07R on 53 signals, band −.08R to +.21R · signal tier 2 · one reading across two timeframes · window QUALIFIED at the close · light AMBER, half, fading, 7.1-point cushion · compression expanded at 43% · anchor choppy, 15 crossings | Half |
| 4 | IBM IBM | Long | 🔒 Members | A positive record on a deep sample. Three clocks are looking and none agree, and sellers control the most-traded price. A half on persistence, taken only close to the line.Record +.04R on 99 signals, band −.05R to +.13R · zero readings across three timeframes · sellers dominant by 16% · window open, cross still pending · light AMBER, half, holding, 5.5-point cushion · compression expanded at 46% · anchor trending, 5 crossings | Half |
| 5 | XAUUSD Gold spot | Long | 🔒 Members | The deepest sample of the five sized rows, on a thin positive record and a fading light. Price trades well above its cost line this morning. The half exists only if gold comes back down to it.Record +.05R on 141 signals, band −.03R to +.13R · minus two readings across one timeframe · window open, cross still pending · light AMBER, half, fading, 6.5-point cushion · compression expanded at 58% · anchor mixed, 9 crossings | Half |
| 6 | TM Toyota Motor | Watch | 🔒 Members | The strongest panel in the scan: the highest signal tier today, the widest agreement, the tightest institutional cluster and sellers in control. The entry has qualified. The light is red, so size is zero.Record +.01R on 62 signals, band −.13R to +.14R · signal tier 3 · four readings across four timeframes · convergence ACTIVE at 88% · sellers dominant by 17% · window QUALIFIED · light RED, holding, 0.7-point cushion · anchor mixed, 7 crossings | No size |
| 7 | US30 Dow cash | Watch | 🔒 Members | The only index coiling and the only one with readings behind its direction. The light is red and fading on a negative record, so the setup is there and the permission is not.Record −.10R on 46 signals · three readings across two timeframes · compression coiled at 70% · window open, cross still pending · light RED, fading, −9.9-point cushion · anchor trending, 3 crossings | No size |
| 8 | PH Parker-Hannifin | Watch | 🔒 Members | A red light six tenths of a point from changing, on a flat record and a trending anchor. One reading on one clock is not enough to size even if the light turns.Record .00R on 70 signals, band −.11R to +.12R · zero readings across one timeframe · window open, cross still pending · light RED, holding, 0.6-point cushion · compression expanded at 64% · anchor trending, 4 crossings | No size |
If you watch one, watch QCOM. Nvidia pays more per signal, +.12R against +.10R, but on 40 signals against 103, and its band crosses zero where Qualcomm’s does not. Qualcomm also carries the only green light, which is the difference between a full position and a half.
The price large money paid across the current S&P swing, 79 points under this morning’s print and one point above where it sat on Tuesday. The entry window above it runs to 7,684. It held through a sixth down session in seven, and the light behind the index is red and improving at −12.2. A four-hour close under 7,533 after the statement removes the last structure holding the S&P up. A close that holds above it carries that structure into Thursday.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete September 16, 2026 brief: the slice of Qualcomm’s band where the only full size gets sold, the wick Nvidia and IBM need before a half goes on, why Dollar General’s qualified short is void at the open, thirteen left-alone names with the price each comes back at, and all twenty-one terminal captures.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money paid over the current swing. Every distance in this brief is measured from it. Entry window · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be priced: two percent for indices and large caps, three for mid-range names, three to five for high-volatility names. Open means price is inside it and the cross is pending. Qualified means the cross printed inside it. Shut means the move has run. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. Coiled means nearly full. It says a move is loading, never which way, and it never overrides a shut window or a red light. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and on how many timeframes. A negative score means the readings disagree with the stated direction. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where a full stop is −1.00, with its range and the number of finished signals behind it. Never published below 20 signals. It is in-sample: a description of the past, not a forecast. Trend light · green is full size, amber is half, red is no new entry, unproven means the sample is still building. The cushion is how far the light sits from changing.
Every reading was taken from the IVT v14.4 terminal between 09:49 and 09:58 CEST on Wednesday 16 September 2026, four-hour timeframe throughout. Nothing here resolves on a touch or a pre-market quote, only on a completed four-hour close. Cost lines are derived from the deviation the terminal publishes. Entry slices and triggers are ours, not the terminal’s. Index and metals levels come from CFD feeds and will differ from your own futures or cash contract. Records are in-sample and forecast nothing, and no rate is published under twenty signals. Breadth was generated at 23:01 UTC on Tuesday across the Cantillon coverage universe. Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice.