Eleven captures, and for once one regime across all of them. Natural gas prints the widest agreement in the scan at eleven readings across three frames, with institutional convergence live at 88% and price sitting on its cost line to five hundredths of a percent. Its record is seventeen of the twenty finished signals needed, so the tracker will not size it. Qualcomm is the only green light on the page and its chart is unremarkable. That gap is the brief.
| Buy | QCOM, full size. The only name here the tracker green-lights, on the only record in the scan whose range clears zero at both ends. |
| Half | DIS, half size. Amber light, window open, and the direction is the opposite of the one this brief published yesterday. |
| Wait | NG and HIMS. The two best charts on the page. Neither has enough finished signals to publish a rate, so neither gets capital yet. |
| Avoid | DNLI and US30. Both armed, both red-lighted, both negative on a sample large enough to mean it. |
| Skip | SP500 and NAS100. Monday's rally put them outside their entry windows. The number they have to come back to is below, and it is free. |
The Federal Reserve raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00% on 16 September, unanimously, 12 votes to nil. It is the first increase since 2023 and it reverses last year's cutting cycle outright. Sixteen of eighteen officials now expect at least one more before the year is out. The ten-year Treasury yield went through 5% for the first time since 2023 on the back of it, then eased to 4.951% on Monday. That single number is doing most of the work in this morning's regime block: money is no longer flowing, and bonds have stopped hedging anything.
One leg of three is on, and it is the speculative one. Bonds are off with the ten-year above 5%, the equity leg is off despite Monday's 1.49% close, and risk assets alone are carrying the reading to +2 of 10.5. Fast money is working. The base under it is not. The structural caveat is bonds versus stocks at 0.48 on the equity captures and 0.69 on the index captures, both well above the 0.35 line where bonds stop working as a hedge, so every position here is sized on its own record and gets no cover from the rest of the book.
One thing worth flagging, because yesterday it went the other way. Monday's brief had to publish two different regime blocks, because the exchange captures and the index CFD captures disagreed by a whole risk leg. This morning all eleven captures return the same block: speculative, +2 of 10.5, bonds off, equities off, risk on, no macro tailwind, risk leading. The only field that moves across the page is the bond-equity correlation, and it moves 0.48 to 0.69. One regime, read eleven times.
Breadth is on this page today because the two measures we run disagree, and the disagreement is the useful part. Our own 74-name coverage universe came out of Monday healthy. The terminal's internal breadth panel, which scores a far wider list, did not. Both readings are below, and the coverage numbers are live on the breadth dashboard if you want to check them against the tape yourself.
| Reading | Coverage universe, 74 names | Terminal breadth panel | What the gap says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advancers vs decliners | 50 up, 24 down | Score −1 to −5 of 8 | Our names participated. The wider list did not |
| Advance/decline ratio | 2.08 | — | Two up for every one down on Monday |
| Above the 50-day | 67.6% | 30.2% | The widest gap on the page, and the one that matters |
| Above the 200-day | 74.3% | 50.5% | Structurally fine here, a coin flip out there |
| McClellan | −2.7 | −21.7 to +26.2 | Flat here, and the panel itself splits by feed |
| Summation | +11,624 | −4,070 to +2,962 | Cumulative series positive here, negative on small caps |
| Divergence flag | None | Active on the index captures | No washout marker on our list |
Read it this way. Roughly two stocks in three on the coverage list are above their 50-day, and fewer than one in three on the wider list are. Monday's rally was real and it was narrow, exactly as the two green sectors out of eleven implied. So the Board below is a set of bets on specific names, and none of them should be sized as though the market is carrying them.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NG | Long | 🔒 Members | Widest agreement in the scan and price is on the cost line11 readings / 3 frames · coiled 82% · convergence active 88% · record 17 of 20 needed | None |
| 2 | HIMS | Long | 🔒 Members | Tightest coil on the page, and its cross has already firedCoiled 95% · 9 readings / 2 frames · signal tier 2 · record 11 of 20 needed | None |
| 3 | QCOM | Long | 🔒 Members | The only green light, on the only record that clears zero at both ends+.10R on 103 finished, range +.01 to +.20 · green light, full · cushion 11.4pt | x1.0 |
| 4 | IREN | Long | 🔒 Members | Compression building toward a coil, window openBuilding 93% · 5 readings / 1 frame · record 8 of 20 needed | None |
| 5 | DIS | Long | 🔒 Members | Amber light and a live window, on yesterday's short flipped long+.06R on 78 finished, range −.04 to +.16 · amber light, half · cushion 8.4pt | x0.5 |
| 6 | DNLI | Long | 🔒 Members | Armed across three frames and red-lighted anyway−.03R on 33 finished · signal tier 2 · red light, fading · cushion −3.9pt | None |
| 7 | VFF | Long | 🔒 Members | Bullish on the header with sellers dominant underneath it5 readings / 2 frames · volume delta −17% sell dominant · record 17 of 20 needed | None |
| 8 | US30 | Short | 🔒 Members | The one short with a window open, and no permission to take it−.10R on 46 finished · building 89% · red light, fading · cushion −9.9pt | None |
Monday closed the index up 1.49% and pushed it 3.1% above its cost line of 7,536. The entry window on this instrument is 2.0% wide, which puts its ceiling at 7,687. At 7,770 this morning the index is roughly 83 points, or 1.1%, outside the window. Nothing on the S&P qualifies as a fresh long until it trades back down through that number. The framework is not calling a top. It is saying the price of admission went up on Monday and has not come back down.
You can check this one against the tape by the close, which is why it sits on the free side of the gate. The eight entry levels on the Board do not.
Enter your Cantillon Research subscriber email to unlock the complete September 22, 2026 brief: the cost line natural gas is sitting on and the window above it, the coil at 95 percent that fired its cross overnight, and the one name the tracker will actually let you size.
Every Friday the complete brief ships open, with all levels, every execution block and all terminal captures, and no gate anywhere on the page.
Readings captured Tuesday 22 September 2026 between 09:54 and 09:59 CEST, from the IVT v14.4 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST, so every US-listed chart here shows Monday 21 September's last completed four-hour bar plus a pre-market print, and no trigger on those charts can fire before the open.
All eleven captures return the same regime block this morning: speculative, strength +2 of 10.5, bonds off, equities off, risk on, no macro tailwind, risk leading, fear low at 15. The only field that varies is the bond-versus-equity correlation, 0.48 on the US equity captures and 0.65 to 0.69 on the index captures, and every one of them reads stress recovery. That is a change from Monday, when the exchange and index feeds disagreed by a whole risk leg.
Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one. Cost lines and window ceilings are derived from the percentage distances the terminal publishes rather than read off it directly, so treat them as accurate to the nearest cent or index point. Index levels come from cash CFD feeds and will differ from your own index or futures contract, which is why the S&P reading here sits above Monday's cash close of 7,764.70. The natural gas capture is a CFD feed and prices below the Henry Hub front month.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.