Gold is the only buy this morning, at half size. Seven of the twelve charts carry a red trend light, which blocks new entries whatever the setup looks like, the morning after the 10-year yield hit 5.1%, a level last seen in 2007. The S&P 500 is nine points above the price where a buy is even allowed again: 7,691.
| Buy | None at full size. Nothing on today's board has an open entry window and a green light at the same time. |
| Half | XAUUSD long, half size. The only setup with an open window, a light that is not red, and a scan that agrees on direction. |
| Wait | GOOG holds the only green light in the scan, but it has run a point past its window and the scan reads its direction the other way. AWK and DIS have the same disagreement. |
| Avoid | XAGUSD and TM. Both are armed, and both carry a red light. |
| Skip | SP500, NAS100, US30 and RUSSELL. All four are red-lit. The S&P level to watch is below, and it is free. |
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 5.1% on Wednesday, its highest since 2007, after a September business-activity survey beat forecasts across the board with services at 58.7. Fed Governor Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed to bring inflation back to target, and traders now price about a 70% chance of a quarter-point hike at the October meeting. Stocks sold off on it.
Two legs of three are on, stocks and risk. Bonds are off, which is what a 5.1% ten-year yield looks like on this scale, and that gap is exactly what "inflationary pump" means: the rally is real and the funding under it is not. Strength reads +8 of 10.5, up a notch from +7 yesterday, but the bond-equity correlation sits at 0.74 on the index and metal captures and 0.52 on the stock captures, so no position on this page gets cover from a bond hedge.
| Book | Reading | What it means this morning |
|---|---|---|
| Large-cap indices SP500, NAS100 | Bullish, 2 to 4% above cost, red light | The S&P is 2.12% above its cost line and the Nasdaq 3.58%. Both carry a red light, so a pullback alone does not make them buyable. |
| Small caps and industrials Russell 2000, Dow | Bearish, red light, snapback live on the Russell | The Russell is 4.05% below its cost line with an oversold-snapback signal already flagged. Do not assume the drop just continues. |
| Metals Gold, Silver | Bullish, sitting on cost | Both sit within 1% of the cost line. Gold has an amber light and silver a red one. |
Our own 74-name coverage universe closed Wednesday with 44.6% of names above their 50-day average, down from 67.6% on Tuesday. The McClellan reading swung from +7.1 to −25.8, and advancing names fell to 33 against 41 decliners, a net −8 after +26 the session before. The terminal's wider panel reads 28.8% above the 50-day. A 23-point drop in one session is the rally narrowing in real time, and it matches the red lights on the indices above.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XAUUSD | Long | 🔒 Members | The only name that clears every check, and the highest confirmation reading in today's scanConf 10 / 3 frames · compression coiled 78% · record +.04R over 142 signals · amber, fading | x0.5 |
| 2 | XAGUSD | Long | 🔒 Members | Bullish and inside its window, but the light is red, so it stays on screen and out of the bookConf 5 / 3 frames · compression expanded 52% · record +.03R over 154 signals · red, improving | None |
| 3 | TM | Short | 🔒 Members | Bearish with sellers in control, but already through the bottom of its window and red-litConf 5 / 2 frames · compression expanded 60% · record +.01R over 62 signals · red | None |
The S&P 500 cash index sits at 7,700, 2.12% above its cost line of 7,541. Its entry window closes at 7,691, nine points below the current price, so a pullback of about 0.1% puts it back inside. That is necessary and not sufficient. The trend light is red, and a red light blocks new entries until it improves. Compression is expanded at 35%, so there is no coil warning of a violent move.
You can check this one against the tape yourself, which is why it sits on the free side of the gate. The three entry levels on the Board do not.
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Every Friday the complete brief ships open, with all levels, every execution block and all terminal captures, and no gate anywhere on the page.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry band · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut entry band. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it. It is measured over the same history the settings were chosen on, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published at all. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. The cushion is how close the light is to changing.
Readings captured Thursday 24 September 2026 between 07:24 and 07:29 CEST from the IVT v14.4 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST, so no trigger on a US-listed chart can fire before then. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal's published percentage distances, accurate to the nearest cent or index point. Index and metal levels come from CFD and spot feeds and will differ from your futures contract. The gold and silver get-out levels come from the scan's futures series, adjusted for today's futures-to-spot gap, so treat them as approximate.
Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one. Alphabet, Walt Disney, American Water Works and Denali are held out of the book because the terminal's bias and the scan's directional cross disagree.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.