Carpenter Technology is the one trade this morning: a short, at half size. Every other chart is either stretched past its entry window or carries a red light, after the weekend's failed Iran truce sent oil and bond yields higher. The S&P 500 has to slip to 7,696 before a buy is even allowed again.
| Half | CRS short, half size. The only chart with an open window, a light that is not red, and a short signal already on the tape. |
| Wait | SP500 and NAS100. Both bullish, both past their windows. The S&P level that re-opens it is below, and it is free. |
| Avoid | CDE. The strongest confirmation in the scan and a coiled spring, but the light is red and silver is breaking lower before the open. |
| Avoid | GE, BAC and US30. All three sit on their cost lines. All three are red-lit. |
| Skip | IONQ, CECO, RUSSELL and CTVA. Either through their windows or too thin a record to size. |
President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire offer over the weekend, a proposal that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped more than 3% to above $107, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.21%, its highest since 2007, and US stock futures were down about 0.4% before the open. Friday's rally, which gave all three major indexes a winning week, was priced on the diplomacy that just failed.
Same shape as Thursday, with less behind it. Stocks and risk are on and bonds are off, which is what "inflationary pump" means: a real rally on funding that keeps getting dearer. Strength slipped from +8 to +6 of 10.5 and the tailwind for longs from +2 to +1. Bonds and stocks now move together at 0.63 on the index captures and 0.54 on single stocks, so no position here gets cover from a bond hedge.
| Book | Reading | What it means this morning |
|---|---|---|
| Large-cap indices SP500, NAS100 | Bullish, past the window | The S&P is 2.33% above its cost line against a 2% limit. The Nasdaq is 3.14% above, coiled at 83%, and red-lit. |
| Small caps and the Dow RUSSELL, US30 | Bearish, snapback live on the Russell | The Russell is 4.33% under its cost line with its oversold-snapback signal still active. The Dow sits inside its window, with a red light and the worst record on the page. |
| Metals and metal names CDE, CRS, silver, gold | Bearish, on the line | Silver and gold both crossed below cost on the scan's 4-hour bars overnight. The two metal stocks on the board are bearish and sitting right on their cost lines. |
Our 74-name coverage universe closed Friday with 66.2% of names above their 50-day average, back from 44.6% on Wednesday, and 74.3% above the 200-day. Advancers beat decliners 49 to 25, the McClellan oscillator reads +25.1 and the cumulative advance-decline line has climbed for a month to +632. The terminal's wider panel says the opposite: 26.4% above the 50-day and a breadth regime of Diverging. The names we cover are healthier than the market underneath them.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRS | Short | 🔒 Members | Bearish on its cost line after a fall of more than a third from July, with a short signal already fired and the range winding tightConf 6 / 2 frames · compression building 91% · record +.09R over 37 signals · amber, holding | x0.5 |
The S&P 500 cash index sits at 7,721, 2.33% above its cost line of 7,545. Its entry window closes at 7,696, so a dip of 0.3% puts it back inside. The light has no verdict yet: the tracker holds 18 of the 20 finished signals it needs. Compression is expanded at 59%, with no coil pointing at a violent move.
You can check this one against the tape yourself, which is why it sits on the free side of the gate. The Carpenter levels do not.
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Every Friday the complete brief ships open, with all levels, every execution block and all terminal captures, and no gate anywhere on the page.
Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry band · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut entry band. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it. It is measured over the same history the settings were chosen on, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published at all. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. The cushion is how close the light is to changing.
Readings captured Monday 28 September 2026 between 10:00 and 10:10 CEST from the IVT v14.5 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST, so no trigger on a US-listed chart can fire before then. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal's published percentage distances, and the Carpenter exit is read off the chart to the nearest ten cents. Index levels come from CFD feeds and will differ from your futures contract.
Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.