Nothing earns full size this morning. EnerSys flipped bullish overnight on a 99% coil and CF Industries sits on its cost line, both amber, both half size. The S&P 500 is 3.5 points outside its entry window at 7,700.
| Half | ENS long, half size. Tuesday's short is off the board: price closed back over its cost line and the bias flipped. Coiled at 99%, amber. |
| Half | CF long, half size. Sitting on the price large money paid, with its light improving. |
| Wait | SP500. Outside its window by 3.5 points and red-lit. The number is free, below. |
| Avoid | SPCX, coiled at 100% on a 149-bar swing with no record. MSTR, whose record runs −.30R to −.01R over 64 signals. |
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.6% on Tuesday, its highest since 2002, and the 10-year reached 5.25%, a level last seen in 2007. The front end went the other way. New York Fed President John Williams said there is no rush to hike again after September, October hike odds fell to about a coin flip, and the 2-year yield dropped. Stocks absorbed it: the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,670.84.
Still stocks and risk on with bonds off, but strength fell to +3 of 10.5 on every capture, from +6 on Tuesday's stock charts and +4 on its index charts. Bonds and stocks move together at 0.53 on single names and 0.69 on the indices, so a Treasury hedge covers nothing this morning.
| Book | Reading | What it means this morning |
|---|---|---|
| Large-cap indices SP500, NAS100 | Bullish, red-lit | The S&P is 2.05% over cost against a 2% window. The Nasdaq is 3.23% over, coiled at 80%. Both lights red. |
| Small caps and the Dow RUSSELL, US30 | Bearish, split | The Dow is back inside its window at −1.49%, coiled at 100%, red and fading. The Russell sits 4.42% under cost with its oversold-snapback signal live on two frames. |
| Single names 14 stocks and BTC | Leaning long | Eleven bullish, four bearish. Ten red lights, two amber, three with no record. Zero green, down from one on Tuesday. |
Two breadth reads disagree. On our 74-name watch universe, 46 names rose on Tuesday against 28, 62.2% sit above their 50-day and the McClellan oscillator reads +25.1. The terminal's broad-market panel reads Diverging: 24.7% above the 50-day, 43.1% above the 200-day, McClellan −29.4. The names we track are carrying a tape the wider market is not, and nothing on the Board goes above half size.
| # | Ticker | Dir | Entry | Why it is on this list | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ENS | Long | 🔒 Members | Pinned to its cost line all September, now back above it with the range wound to 99%Conf 7 / 2 frames · coiled 99% · record +.08R over 65 signals · amber, holding, 13.3-point cushion | x0.5 |
| 2 | CF | Long | 🔒 Members | Fell 18% from the $140 high straight onto the price large money paid, with its light improvingConf 4 / 1 frame · record +.08R over 72 signals · amber, improving, 8.8-point cushion | x0.5 |
Tuesday's free number was the cost line at 7,548. It has not moved. The cash index reads 7,703.50, 2.05% above it, which leaves it 3.5 points past the top of its 2% entry window. Red, improving, 12.2 points from turning, with a record of −.12R over 26 signals. Coiled at 80%. Back under 7,700 the window reopens. A 4-hour close under 7,548 turns the bias bearish.
You can check this one against the tape yourself, which is why it sits on the free side of the gate. The EnerSys and CF levels do not.
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Cost line (the anchor) · the volume-weighted price large money actually paid over the current swing. Everything in this brief is measured as distance from it. Buy near it and you are paying what they paid. Buy far above it and you are paying their profit. Entry band · how far from the cost line a new entry can still be sensibly priced. Inside it, the entry is fairly priced. Past it, the move has already run and you wait for a pullback. Compression · how tightly the range has wound, from 0 to 100%. High means the next move should be a big one. It says nothing about direction, and it never overrides a shut entry band. Confirmation · how many independent readings agree, and across how many timeframes. Higher on both counts is better. Two timeframes at 6 beats one timeframe at 8. Record · the average result per signal in units of risk, where being stopped out is exactly −1.00. Always published with the number of finished signals behind it. It is measured over the same history the settings were chosen on, so read it as a description of the past and not a forecast. Below 20 finished signals no rate is published at all. Trend light · green means full size, amber means half, red means no new entry however good the chart looks. The cushion is how close the light is to changing.
Readings captured Wednesday 30 September 2026 between 09:46 and 09:56 CEST from the IVT v14.4 terminal, on four-hour bars that had not yet closed. US exchanges open at 15:30 CEST, so no trigger on a US-listed chart can fire before then. Cost lines and window edges are derived from the terminal's published percentage distances, and exits are read off the chart to the nearest ten cents. Index and crypto levels come from CFD and spot feeds and will differ from your futures contract.
Records are in-sample and forecast nothing. No rate is published on fewer than twenty finished signals, and the sample size is printed beside every one.
Charts are unmodified terminal captures provided for reference, not as entry instructions. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future ones.