Nordic Cantillon File · Online gaming

EvolutionEVO

Evolution develops and streams online casino games to gaming operators: live casino with real dealers from studios in Europe, North America and Latin America, and slots. Its customers are the operators, not the players.

EUR 15bnMarket value
SEK 841.40Share price
EUR 2.1bnRevenue 2025
59.4%Operating margin
01 Where the money comes from

Evolution had revenue of EUR 2.1bn in 2025. That is 9% more a year since 2023.

Revenue by year, operating margin as the line
EUR 2bn2023EUR 2bn2024EUR 2bn2025

Operators pay a share of gaming revenue plus fixed fees for dedicated tables. Much of a studio's cost is fixed, so the margin is very high as volume grows. The company reports in euros.

Latest report: January–September 2026

NowYear before
Net revenuesEUR 1,557.0mEUR 1,552.3m
Adjusted EBITDAEUR 1,022.2m, 65.7%EUR 1,024.1m, 66.0%
Profit for the periodEUR 746.7mEUR 755.3m
Earnings per shareEUR 3.85EUR 3.71
Net revenues, third quarterEUR 526.1m, +3.7%EUR 507.1m

Source: Evolution, Interim report January–September 2026, p. 1. Interim reports are not filed in ESEF, so these figures are read by hand from the report.

Revenue from the group income statement in the annual report (ESEF). Growth is the average annual change.

02 Where the money goes

Of every 100 in sales, 59 became operating profit in 2025. Over the period it has ranged from 59 to 64.

YearRevenueOperating profitMarginNet profitOperating cash flowCash conversion
2023EUR 1.8bnEUR 1.1bn63.5%EUR 1.1bnEUR 1.2bn109%
2024EUR 2.2bnEUR 1.4bn64.1%EUR 1.2bnEUR 1.3bn105%
2025EUR 2.1bnEUR 1.3bn59.4%EUR 1.1bnEUR 1.3bn118%

On average, 111% of profit arrived as cash over the period.

Operating margin = operating profit divided by revenue. Cash conversion = cash flow from operations divided by net profit.

03 Who gets it

Earnings per share went from EUR 5.01 in 2023 to EUR 5.24 in 2025. Dividends took 50% of owner earnings over the last 2 years.

YearOwner earningsDividendsEPSDPSShares
2023EUR 1.1bnEUR 427mEUR 5.01EUR 2.00214m
2024EUR 1.1bnEUR 559mEUR 5.94EUR 2.67209m
2025EUR 1.1bnEUR 572mEUR 5.24EUR 2.82203m

The share count has fallen 2.6% a year, so each share owns a little more of the company every year.

Owner earnings = cash flow from operations, minus investment in tangible and intangible assets, minus lease repayments. Share count is derived as net profit divided by earnings per share.

04 What protects it

Return on capital employed was 30% after tax in 2025. Net cash of EUR 727m.

Return on capital employed has ranged from 30% to 30% after tax over the period.

Evolution has no bank debt. Cash was EUR 818m at the end of 2025, and after lease liabilities of EUR 91m about EUR 727m of net cash remains.

Competitive advantages, our assessment

Scale in live casino●●●By far the largest in the world, with more tables and games than competitors can staff.
Licences●●○Approved in many regulated markets, which takes a new entrant years to build.
Game development●●○New game formats get copied, but Evolution is usually first.

More than 800 gaming operators in regulated markets. They choose on range, stream quality and approval in each country, where Evolution holds licences in a large number of jurisdictions.

Return on capital employed = operating profit after 20.6% Swedish tax, divided by equity plus net debt at year end.

05 What the price assumes

Today's price needs owner earnings to grow 0% a year for ten years. Revenue has grown 9% a year.

Required returnGrowth needed
8%−2%
9%0%
10%2%

Market value EUR 15bn, enterprise value EUR 15bn. Base: owner earnings of EUR 1.1bn a year on average over the last three years, an owner earnings yield of 7.5%.

Reverse discounted cash flow. Enterprise value = market value plus net debt. The base is average owner earnings over the last three years. Required return 9%, 10 years, then 2.5% growth. The Stockholm price of SEK 841.40 is converted to EUR at 11.1219 kronor per EUR, because the company reports in EUR.

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Where every number comes from
ItemAmountPeriodSource
RevenueEUR 2.1bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:RevenueAndOperatingIncome
Operating profitEUR 1.3bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities
Net profit, ownersEUR 1.1bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent
Cash flow from operationsEUR 1.3bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities
EquityEUR 4.1bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:Equity
CashEUR 818m2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:CashAndCashEquivalents
Cash and cash equivalentsEUR 817,951k2025-12-31Interim report January–September 2026, p. 8
Lease liabilities, non-current and currentEUR 72,830k + 18,238k2025-12-31Interim report January–September 2026, p. 8

The figures come from the company's annual reports in the machine-readable ESEF format, via filings.xbrl.org and the Swedish financial regulator. The latest filing wins, so restated comparatives replace the originals. Anything not tagged in ESEF is given with its source and page.

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General analysis and educational material, not personal investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. The figures are mechanical and can be rebuilt from the company's public reports; the text is the author's judgement. Author's position in Evolution: not disclosed. Data to 2025-12-31, price as of 2026-10-23.