Nordic Cantillon File · Trucks and machinery

VolvoVOLV B

AB Volvo makes trucks under the Volvo, Renault Trucks and Mack brands, construction equipment, buses, and engines through Volvo Penta. Volvo Financial Services lends to customers so they can buy them. The car maker Volvo Cars is a separate company.

SEK 626bnMarket value
SEK 307.70Share price
SEK 479.2bnRevenue 2025
10.1%Operating margin
01 Where the money comes from

Volvo had revenue of SEK 479.2bn in 2025. That is 7% more a year since 2020.

Revenue by year, operating margin as the line
SEK 338bn2020SEK 372bn2021SEK 473bn2022SEK 552bn2023SEK 527bn2024SEK 479bn2025

Trucks are the largest part of sales. Service, parts and connected services add a steadier stream that keeps running when new truck sales slow. The truck business is cyclical, so profit swings hard with haulers' investment.

Latest report: Third quarter 2026 (January–September in brackets)

NowYear before
Net salesSEK 119.5bn (356.6)SEK 110.7bn (355.4)
Adjusted operating incomeSEK 14,693m, 12.3%SEK 11,707m, 10.6%
Operating incomeSEK 14,354m, 12.0%SEK 12,517m, 11.3%
Operating cash flow, industrial operationsSEK 7,195m (13,464)SEK −1,739m (2,518)
Earnings per shareSEK 5.29 (14.48)SEK 3.71 (12.22)
Net financial position, industrial operationsSEK 43.8bnSEK 45.4bn
Truck order intake (units)46,918 (173,085)37,134 (140,122)
Truck deliveries (units)49,611 (152,802)44,631 (146,228)

Source: Volvo Group, Report on the third quarter 2026, 23 October 2026, p. 2. Interim reports are not filed in ESEF, so these figures are read by hand from the report.

Revenue from the group income statement in the annual report (ESEF). Growth is the average annual change.

02 Where the money goes

Of every 100 in sales, 10 became operating profit in 2025. Over the period it has ranged from 8 to 13.

YearRevenueOperating profitMarginNet profitOperating cash flowCash conversion
2020SEK 338.4bnSEK 27.5bn8.1%SEK 19.3bnSEK 30.6bn158%
2021SEK 372.2bnSEK 43.1bn11.6%SEK 32.8bnSEK 33.6bn103%
2022SEK 473.5bnSEK 45.7bn9.7%SEK 32.7bnSEK 33.2bn102%
2023SEK 552.3bnSEK 67.3bn12.2%SEK 49.8bnSEK 21.4bn43%
2024SEK 526.8bnSEK 66.6bn12.6%SEK 50.4bnSEK 46.4bn92%
2025SEK 479.2bnSEK 48.5bn10.1%SEK 34.5bnSEK 45.6bn132%

On average, 105% of profit arrived as cash over the period.

Operating margin = operating profit divided by revenue. Cash conversion = cash flow from operations divided by net profit.

03 Who gets it

Earnings per share went from SEK 9.50 in 2020 to SEK 16.94 in 2025. Dividends took 91% of owner earnings over the last 3 years.

YearOwner earningsDividendsEPSDPSShares
2020––SEK 9.50–2,033m
2021–SEK 49.8bnSEK 16.12SEK 24.492,034m
2022–SEK 26.4bnSEK 16.09SEK 13.002,034m
2023SEK 45.8bnSEK 28.5bnSEK 24.50SEK 14.002,034m
2024SEK 45.3bnSEK 36.6bnSEK 24.78SEK 18.002,033m
2025SEK 21.8bnSEK 37.6bnSEK 16.94SEK 18.502,034m

The share count has been roughly unchanged.

Owner earnings = Volvo's operating cash flow in the industrial operations, after investment and without the finance arm's lending. The measure is in ESEF from 2023. Share count is derived as net profit divided by earnings per share.

04 What protects it

Net cash of SEK 63.0bn.

The industrial operations had a net financial position of SEK 63.0bn at the end of 2025, excluding pensions and leases. That is Volvo's own measure, and it leaves out the finance arm, which borrows in order to lend to customers.

Competitive advantages, our assessment

Service network●●●A dense network of workshops and parts depots that is costly and slow to build.
Scale●●○One of the world's largest truck makers, with shared platforms across several brands.
Brands●●○Volvo, Mack and Renault Trucks each hold strong positions in their regions.
Switching costs●○○Haulers change brand when the running cost argues for it; service contracts bind some.

Haulers, construction firms, public transport and industry. They choose on running cost per kilometre, uptime and the service network, not on purchase price.

Return on capital employed = operating profit after 20.6% Swedish tax, divided by equity plus net debt at year end.

05 What the price assumes

Today's price needs owner earnings to grow 2% a year for ten years. Revenue has grown 7% a year.

Required returnGrowth needed
8%0%
9%2%
10%4%

Market value SEK 626bn, enterprise value SEK 563bn. Base: owner earnings of SEK 37.7bn a year on average over the last three years, an owner earnings yield of 6.7%.

Reverse discounted cash flow. Enterprise value = market value plus net debt. The base is average owner earnings over the last three years. Required return 9%, 10 years, then 2.5% growth.

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Where every number comes from
ItemAmountPeriodSource
RevenueSEK 479.2bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:Revenue
Operating profitSEK 48.5bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities
Net profit, ownersSEK 34.5bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent
Cash flow from operationsSEK 45.6bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities
EquitySEK 178.4bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:EquityAttributableToOwnersOfParent
CashSEK 73.4bn2025-12-31Annual report 2025 (ESEF)ifrs-full:CashAndCashEquivalents
Net financial position, industrial operations (excl. pensions and leases)SEK 63,040m2025-12-31Annual report 2025, note 4, table 4:1
Net financial position, industrial operationsSEK 43.8bn2026-09-30Report on the third quarter 2026, p. 2

The figures come from the company's annual reports in the machine-readable ESEF format, via filings.xbrl.org and the Swedish financial regulator. The latest filing wins, so restated comparatives replace the originals. Anything not tagged in ESEF is given with its source and page.

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General analysis and educational material, not personal investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. The figures are mechanical and can be rebuilt from the company's public reports; the text is the author's judgement. Author's position in Volvo: not disclosed. Data to 2025-12-31, price as of 2026-10-23.